The missing factor here is definitely the spazz factor. I always say it's at least 5% that someone does something crazy like this. Nice read on the situation.

At a macro level, this hand is interesting. It's a spot that comes up a lot in low-to-mid-stakes MTT's - we have a hand that's basically top of range and a lot of the conversation is around folding. In this particular hand, we have very few better holdings. Maybe we have A3s sometimes and 33 in full, but that's really about it. Our JJ+ probably 3-bets pre, or at least it should a decent amount of the time.

If we are thinking of folding here, it's because we believe villain isn't bluffing.

But as this spot illustrates, villains - even at these stakes - do bluff. They do overvalue hands. They do spaz out. And unless you've got a really good read that this a nitty old man coffee type, it's ok to just pay off. Yeah, it sucks when villain shows you QQ and we lose, but we're supposed to lose here when that happens.

This isn't to say that the instinct to overfold isn't a valid one, especially in tournaments like these where the population will generally under-bluff. But for me personally, I'm just always going to pay off in spots like these without really strong reads. The more I've taken that approach, the less bad I feel when I lose, because I understand that a lot of the time I'm just going to.

On a side not, if a villain thinks that you're going to fold the top of your range here to a jam and you do, that's a pretty massive exploit to use on a player going forward.

I missed this post...

If I had bet 2,000 then her jam would have felt like it was a flush draw or a bluff (could be like TT or AK/AQ which I block a little). I probably would have tanked. I would need her to be bluffing more than 33% of the time... Like 40%. When I think these things through I usually fold. But here I think her jam would be very polarized so in the end I think I still call. Also my 2bb bet would be like a blocking bet (a very small value bet) so I could have anything including air or a small PP. So I think she could c/r all in with PP's like TT/99/88 as well as overpairs, and flush draws.

If she had opened to 2bb preflop and then I had bet 2bb on the flop and she c/r jammed I would have just folded I think because there just wouldn't have been enough in the pot to make it worth it. Also my bet sizing wouldn't have been a blocking bet size but a standard flop value sizing.