There were roughly 111 players we are now in the money with 4 players left. Payouts are $8,900 for 1st, $5,300 for 2nd, $3,200 for 3rd and like $2,300 for 4th. The big stack with like 1,500,000 chips is on my left. I have about 1,000,000 chips and the others are close. Blinds are 20,000/40,000 with BB ante of 40,000.

Villain is UTG (CO) and is a youngish GTO/Solver type. Very Aggro, bluffs a lot, wide range pre flop.

Villain min raises UTG to 40,000, fold, SB calls, I call in BB with 94s. Mistake #1? UTG is opening very wide and I am suited. But maybe I should fold because of the other call.

Flop is 992r. I check Villain bets 75,000, fold, I call. Mistake #2? For whatever reason I didn't want Villain to fold. I wanted to double up or at least win some more chips. I didn't think Villain would call with no pair or a lower PP and I wondered if Villain would call with an overpair.

Turn is T now with a flush draw. I check, Villain checks. Mistake #3? I think this is my worst mistake because there are a lot of draws out there and if I was Villain I might call with a draw. Also my bet sizing would be around 80,000 to make it look like a blocking bet. In fairness to me I would have c/r jammed if he had bet.

River is 8 no flush. I check Villain bets 125,000, I call. Mistake #4 (and possibly #5)? I like my check because there will be bluffs and straights out there and my check might indicate a small PP or 2x type hand so Villain could bluff a bit. Also, Villain could make a value bet with Tx or overpair (though I think Villain would call any of my bets with those hands).

How many mistakes did I make?

My thoughts:

I think the flop is close -- but lean towards fold due to ICM and RIO, especially since the hand cannot make a straight. But you are probably deep enough that you can try to make 2 pair on an over pair and take down a big pot.

Flop -- I call too. Super dry flop, you are probably taking it down with a x/r, unless V has over pair (GTO question, what bluffs are we using to balance our 9x with a x/r here?) But V's range has more Ax and broadway hands than over pairs, so let's try to have him catch up a little.

Turn -- I do think I lead the turn here as that T works to give most of V's broadway hands draws that V might be afraid to bet given your flop call. Think I go 1/2 - 2/3 pot here. Small enough for over pairs to call, but big enough to charge V's many draws a steep price.

River -- given the action so far, I think you could justify, x/c to induce or a blocking bet to get paid by V's 2 pair hands. But given description of V, blocking bet might get pounced on, especially if V has J or Q, which will put you in a really tough spot.

Other than turn, which did dictate river play, don't think you played it that bad. Possible V has QJ or boat here (TT/88) -- but that's poker.

*I assume Villain raised to 80,000.

Preflop: Yes, like you said is a mistake calling there. 4 left you have high ICM in that stack distribution plus only 4 there is not a lot of ante in the pot so your pot odds are not the same as a 9handed situation. 94s is suited but is a really bad hand, you only hoping for a flush, and even with that you have a lot of reverse implied odds. Its good to know that is NOT a very big mistake, I don't care about this one.

Flop: Usually raising trips OOP is the best option. If you call, IP can easily check Turn and evaluate River with a lot of hands, so in the end raising 94s in 992r is going to win more money than calling and hoping V triple barrels with a bluff. So yes a small/medium mistake here.

Turn: The T is good for V so I don't agree your check is a mistake here. I think you are dragging the flop mistake to the turn. I'd check this turn with my range.

River: When V checks turn, his range is medium, a lot of A high, K high, low PP, and some missed FD and SD. In these types of scenarios, the best way to maximize your value is betting your great hands, if you slowplay it should be sometimes your nutted hands like fullhouses. Trips I would bet almost all the time using a big size. Now, as played probably the best play is to raise River, but yes its really hard that V is calling a worse hand, that's why you bet this and slowplay nuts.


In summary: I'd study more raising in paired boards and betting OOP after turn check/check.

Hey Bubblebust,

Sorry but I don't agree on the flop. I understand the reasoning but I don't think it's accurate. What do you think V is doing with two over cards? He is going to check down A high, some K high, PPs in later streets. If he catches a pair OTT, he is probably betting one street and checking. On the other hand, if you raise flop he is not going to fold two overs with bd flush, PP. If he catches a pair OTT after you raise he is not going to fold anyway, if he has an overpair he is going to call at least turn again. So in the end raising flop you are going to win more chips than trying to slowplay this.

Just fold pre if you're going multiway. Or, if UTG is opening so wide, you can squeeze if you really want to. This isn't the combo I'd choose for that, though. With the SB caller and the ICM effects of the pay jumps, and at this stack depth, I don't really want to take this hand multiway. An opponent opening wide doesn't mean the correct adjustment is to call wide.

Seems to me that when you call with trash and hit trips you should show some aggression to with the pot, regardless of your kicker. You may as well fold if you play it so passively.

Without characterizing what you did as mistakes or not, it was certainly atypical play from you on all streets. What was it about villain or situation that made you decide to play it this way?

In a FT table with ICM considerations, preflop is a mistake. We need to be playing significantly tighter, than cEV in this spot especially since there's incentives for us to get a payjump if the SB busts. And I'm not even sure cEV that this is a call.

We're kind in no man's lands theory wise, but if we have trips here we probably should just click, even to this size. We don't want cards to come to kill our action if he has an overpair, and some overpairs might be willing to just get it in which is great for us. And we could click with a bunch of other stuff that should get overpairs to fold as bluffs, and even stuff like medium pairs might want to click some percentage of the time if we think villain is willing to peel really wide.

(Although if you take that line, you have to be willing to just rip it in on turns.)

As played on turn, I think donk lead is a thing, especially if we're trapping some of our 9x those hands really want to start betting now to get value from overpairs as the board gets a little more coordinated, plus villain is going to likely have Tx a decent amount as many of their bets should be Tx with backdoor straight/flush draws.

On the river, I actually don't mind check now, as when we bet we probably don't get called by a ton worse. With our better 9x this would lean way more towards a bet or maybe even shove, although SPR is awkward. Most of villain's overpairs almost certainly bet turn, a lot of Tx bets turn, so really what we're now up against mostly are traps and bluffs. With ICM I think call is fine.

Villain actually had over 2,000,000 chips at one point and lost a AK vs AJ all in hand vs guy who had about 400,000 chips (it was a little earlier so guy went all in with like 14 bb's).

Villain was incredibly good and on my left. But he opened extremely wide. So that's why I decided to call his minraise with a suited hand. Given it was not HU I think I should have folded. I almost always do fold here.

I just froze on the flop bet. When I freeze at the table if I raise they always fold. So that was part of the problem. But the other part was I had no bluffs except for air. The thing on the flop is I prefer to c/r when I can have semi-bluffs. I don't think he would have called unless he either had a 9x or possibly an overpair. But that call would depend on the size of my raise to some extent. So I was sitting there thinking why would he call my c/r. So I called. Which because I froze usually means that I am debating whether to call or fold. So he might actually think I was weak (like A2 or 44 weak).

I just whiffed on the turn. I do think I should have led out and if he had a straight and/or flush draw or an overpair he would likely call. But again the odd thing is I rarely lead out the turn after i check and call a flop bet. I would have led the turn if he had checked back the flop. Why I decided to check the turn was I wanted to c/r all in, partly because I have some semi bluff possibilities. I thought Villain would bet the turn because he usually did if he bet the flop. He was so aggro.

The river I probably bet some of the time. But I had a bad feeling. Still I think you are right that mostly I bet an amount like 100,000 as a blocking type bet that could get calls from worse hands. And if he raised I would fold. Unless he clicked it back...

If I block bet the river, it would be to try to induce a raise and I would snap call one. Trips is still a strong hand with this board and action.

fold pre (heavy icm as 2cl, rio, ft)

cr flop (agg/gto V will assume u have high bluff freq on 992r, too many turns go chk-chk)

highly doubt he should be tripling a range which allows all nines to see showdown when so mucb of your range is a nine. He should never have worse than a huge 9 or better.

94 probably one of your better 9s to catch due to unblocking bluffs but its not printing.

Plus flip the script and put yourself in his shoes--do you think many people are folding a 9 with chips still behind? Not often...

pretty sick small sizing exploit if hes got air and trying to muscle you off a 9

does he have any reason to think youve got any more than like, idk maybe 5-10% of you range being a T or a deuce?

tough to assess because

1. of the wildcard that he can have JJ through AA but Ive definitely seen people decline to triple these (though that sizing really screams--or perhaps is intended to scream--exactly JJ QQ KK or AA) and I dont think ranges can really permit a profitable outcome with this line. Including non-small on flop which likely even gets you off a bunch of 2s immediately.

2. turn sizing doesnt seem congruent with flop sizing. Why would a 9 resort to a milking stratey when youve already shown appreciable intransigence? Why not at least 150k or even 250k of hes got a bomb 9 or a boat?

edit: ****, though he barreled the turn. Definitely think you wanna probe river for small sizing and as played I think x minraise river against a range thats mostly JJ through AA at this point (just my opinion) and which probably call it off and rarely come over the top as a bluff. He can have boats and straights but id expect a 3b all in to be rare and nutted although if theres a spot where people do find a fold with trips no flush possible at a frequency thats even remotely close to unexploitable it would be this exact scenario. And if hes got the balls to get you off a 9 then sick hand. Not like you wouldnt also have boats of your own.

Thank you for all of your thoughts.

He had J7s so he hit his gutter on the river. However, he also had a flush draw on the turn so if I had led out he would have called unless I just jammed which would be even worse than what I did. And if he then jammed when I led out he turn that would have been it for me. But given everything I think he would just have called getting decent implied odds and I doubt I would have folded to a jam on the river especially if I led out.

I wish I had c/r'd the flop and he would absolutely have folded.

Ironically on the river when I called and he won my sadness showed. Maybe I said something like "I suck at poker". He asked me why I was sad and I said "I had a 9" and he was stunned. My really awful call on the flop and not leading out the turn actually did have him thinking I had a small PP or 2x and his ridiculously small river bet was to try to get me to call hoping he had like AK/AQ/AJ/KQ/KJ.

I think I got it wrong and there were 5 players left at the time this hand was dealt. When we eliminated the 5th player and we were down to 4, the Floor came over and asked if we wanted to do a Tax chop. First time I ever heard of that. Because of the remaining total if we chopped it evenly it would be $4,925 which means it wouldn't be reported to the IRS. The ex Chip Leader (guy on my left had about 700,000 chips, I had ~800,000 chips and the remaining two guys had about 1,200,000 each. The two chip leaders immediately agreed to the chop (even though they could have pressed for a $5,300 payout each). So it was LOL amazing that I hadn't gotten myself knocked out on this 94s hand. Because I always pay taxes on any tournament winnings it was like a gift to me (and of course I wouldn't have done it if I was one of the chip leaders because it could have led to an even better chop with 3 players left, where I get like 20% to 30% extra because I have to pay taxes).

Interesting re: tax chop

If this is ever in play, then the dynamic is identical to late stages satellite

Preflop: Close decision, but I am calling any 2 suited to the villain you described and the raise size.

I think you played the hand fine. If you c/r this flop you are going to get him to fold probably anything worse than TT. You are very far ahead of his range. I think leading is an interesting thought here, but how often do we donk the turn in general? There hasn't been a significant texture shift. The Villain would need to go runner runner (it happens)

On the River, I am probably betting here myself or raising small. There are still worse hands that might call you. For such a small river bet, the question should really be, "Are we raising here and how much if we decide to raise?"
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