Thx all of you, very useful! I realize I contradicted myself, arguing for pot control, but raising the flop instead. My line of thinking went he might fold TT or JJ. I saw it as an attempt to scare away overcards, which of course will be a big part of my range. Obv. I should call and evaluate turn instead.
As played I read weakness into his turn check and started thinking "what if he also has AK?" Of course he could have a set that now tries to be tricky. But why then donk it OTF on this low card board, aside from the fact that it's drawheavy? Again: This might lead to me folding out a fair share of my 3-betrange, like AJ an ATs, hands that are likely to stab when he checks.
So now I believed that AK, JJ and TT might be a main part of his range (99 as well, but the river check makes it less likely), hands that I after my raise OTF might suceed in chasing away if I shoot the turn. But I also realized that the play - if profitable at all - is one of high variance. And in this spot, I didn't want to do it.
When he also checks the river I believe we're behind a little bit more often, and the rest of the time we'll mostly split with one of the other 9 possible AK-combinations. And it was in fact AK he held.
A number of hands later I won quite a big pot against him IP when he turned his pocket 99 into a big riverbluff, representing - I guess - trip Queens and probably trying to scare away a top pair hand on the A-high board. It felt very fishy, him betting (although small on both flop and turn) which was AQ6Q, even getting two callers OTF. His problem was I held a queen. And finally he went out, completely waisting a still quite healthy stack on this turn betting bonanza :-D. I mean: His opponent says: "Man I really, really, really have it", but he's not willing to listen. Of course he's doomed to loose a fair part of his stack here, whatever line he takes. But we don't need to go busto here in some attempt to get max value, right?
PokerStars - 300/600 Ante 75 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (CO): 94.74 BB
BTN: 50.34 BB
SB: 61.12 BB
BB: 47.87 BB
UTG: 130.19 BB
UTG+1: 36.94 BB
MP: 192.07 BB
Villain: 97.83 BB
8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has T
2
fold,
fold,
MP raises to 2.15 BB,
Villain calls 2.15 BB,
fold,
fold,
fold, BB calls 1.15 BB
Flop: (7.95 BB, 3 players) A
A
9
BB checks,
MP checks,
Villain bets 3 BB,
fold,
MP calls 3 BB
Turn: (13.95 BB, 2 players) J
MP checks,
Villain bets 3 BB,
MP raises to 9.38 BB,
Villain raises to 15.77 BB,
MP raises to 40.78 BB,
Villain raises to 65.8 BB,
MP raises to 186.8 BB and is all-in,
Villain1 calls 26.75 BB and is all-in
River: (199.05 BB, 2 players) 5
MP shows A
J
(Full House, Aces full of Jacks)
(Pre 32%, Flop 25%, Turn 90%)
MP+1 shows A
Q
(Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 68%, Flop 75%, Turn 10%)
MP wins 199.05 BB