5th hand after I regged at the beginning of 3rd level in Sunday million (first ever played since it is out of my BRM but deposited $109 as an easter gift to myself ), so no real reads on villain.

I think a raise is a very standard play as a response to the donk bet. But how to proceed after that? I felt checking behind OTT was reasonable too: We are quite deep and not really interested in building a very big pot here. Plus we have showdown value due to the board. But what about the river? Villains range after 3 streets feels like TT, JJ, perhaps QQ, AK, AQ, perhaps AJ/AT, KQ of Spades and maybe some occasional pure bluff.

PokerStars - 200/400 Ante 50 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 123.12 BB
SB: 97.7 BB
BB: 107.34 BB
UTG: 113.25 BB
UTG+1: 195.65 BB
MP: 54.85 BB
MP+1: 215.17 BB
CO: 159.55 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 7 BB

Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 3 7 8
CO bets 11.25 BB, Hero raises to 25 BB, CO calls 13.75 BB

Turn: (72.5 BB, 2 players) 5
CO checks, Hero checks

River: (72.5 BB, 2 players) 9
CO checks, Hero ???

Raise flop is very bad, check river.
U should call flop then check fold unless u hit

Right. You correctly point out we want to play pot control this deep with AK post-flop. So why are we raising the flop. We would love to check it down and realize our equity. If V is going to put in another big bet on the turn with only a draw, then we just have to let it go.

Such an odd spot for a donkbet - this has to be a hand like 99--JJ that is protecting against overcards. Or maybe a set that doesn't want to give you a free card?

Either way, I don't see the value in raising the donkbet at all. He's not folding any better hands and you have showdown value against whatever bluffs he might have in his range.

As played I think I just check and hope for a showdown win. I can't see him folding anything you beat.

Thx all of you, very useful! I realize I contradicted myself, arguing for pot control, but raising the flop instead. My line of thinking went he might fold TT or JJ. I saw it as an attempt to scare away overcards, which of course will be a big part of my range. Obv. I should call and evaluate turn instead.

As played I read weakness into his turn check and started thinking "what if he also has AK?" Of course he could have a set that now tries to be tricky. But why then donk it OTF on this low card board, aside from the fact that it's drawheavy? Again: This might lead to me folding out a fair share of my 3-betrange, like AJ an ATs, hands that are likely to stab when he checks.

So now I believed that AK, JJ and TT might be a main part of his range (99 as well, but the river check makes it less likely), hands that I after my raise OTF might suceed in chasing away if I shoot the turn. But I also realized that the play - if profitable at all - is one of high variance. And in this spot, I didn't want to do it.

When he also checks the river I believe we're behind a little bit more often, and the rest of the time we'll mostly split with one of the other 9 possible AK-combinations. And it was in fact AK he held.

A number of hands later I won quite a big pot against him IP when he turned his pocket 99 into a big riverbluff, representing - I guess - trip Queens and probably trying to scare away a top pair hand on the A-high board. It felt very fishy, him betting (although small on both flop and turn) which was AQ6Q, even getting two callers OTF. His problem was I held a queen. And finally he went out, completely waisting a still quite healthy stack on this turn betting bonanza :-D. I mean: His opponent says: "Man I really, really, really have it", but he's not willing to listen. Of course he's doomed to loose a fair part of his stack here, whatever line he takes. But we don't need to go busto here in some attempt to get max value, right?


PokerStars - 300/600 Ante 75 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 94.74 BB
BTN: 50.34 BB
SB: 61.12 BB
BB: 47.87 BB
UTG: 130.19 BB
UTG+1: 36.94 BB
MP: 192.07 BB
Villain: 97.83 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has T 2

fold, fold, MP raises to 2.15 BB, Villain calls 2.15 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.15 BB

Flop: (7.95 BB, 3 players) A A 9
BB checks, MP checks, Villain bets 3 BB, fold, MP calls 3 BB

Turn: (13.95 BB, 2 players) J
MP checks, Villain bets 3 BB, MP raises to 9.38 BB, Villain raises to 15.77 BB, MP raises to 40.78 BB, Villain raises to 65.8 BB, MP raises to 186.8 BB and is all-in, Villain1 calls 26.75 BB and is all-in

River: (199.05 BB, 2 players) 5

MP shows A J (Full House, Aces full of Jacks)
(Pre 32%, Flop 25%, Turn 90%)
MP+1 shows A Q (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 68%, Flop 75%, Turn 10%)
MP wins 199.05 BB

So I actually don't mind the flop raise - my concern is allowing him to realize his equity as his donk bet along with the board texture should have a high % of draws. The other issue with calling is he can keep barreling and we're most likely folding future streets as there's plenty of bad run outs. As played once he calls I would bet the turn - he does have some hands that are ahead/hands with equity, so checking isn't the way to go.

Yeah I guess my raise lowers the probability of him shooting the turn also. Which also gives me the advantage of getting a free river card and the chance of hitting a K or A the times he has TT or JJ. Still not sure though, because I think there were good arguments for just flatting the flop also.