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Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin
Rick I have an exercise for you:
1. State your assumptions for IP opening range
AJ+/KQ/88-99/KK+/maybe 77 I think he jams TT-QQ pre-flop but I could be wrong. He hadn't raised much at all and when he did he was very strong. So KQ might not have been in his range.
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2. Consider these random flops:
6s4h8d
Qs6c4c
Th8cKh
2hQs3s
2sTdJc
I think I jam all of them. I wouldn't normally jam the KT8 flop but I don't think he opens AT. Ironically even if he did he would probably fold that. The flops I don't jam would have Axx. The other thing about this guy is he would likely check back if he didn't have the A so i could jam the turn and likely take it down.
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3. Guess what IP has to defend vs 133% pot donk ship on all these flops. Which parts of his range do you expect to play so poorly that it opens him up to exploitation?
All of his range he plays poorly.
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You plan seems superficially horrible but I'm in a open mind kind of mood. Perhaps you can get some excess folds from underpairs and AQ-AK.
That is exactly what happened. He could have had an underpair or AQ/AJ.
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4. Describe what you're looking for. Are you sure that these are universal tells?
There are several things I look for here. When the flop hits I am looking down but actually peripherally at his face. If his head goes down to look at his stack when the flop is laid out I know his plan is to bet. If he stares at the flop like it means something its more likely a miss. He wasn't looking at anything but the flop when he was in a hand and he didn't connect with the flop. And here he was just staring at the flop.
The other thing he did once or twice was go to pick up chips and then not bet when it was on him. Like he wanted people to think he connected with the flop.
The first is a universal tell. The second was about this guy in particular. But the thing about people looking down at their stack is described in depth in Mike Caro's Book of Tells. So there are many pros who always look down at their chips when the flop is laid out. So while there are some people who this is a tell for there are some who it isn't. But if you have played with somebody for hours then you know which camp they are in.