Merge $11FT: Loose defend in BB, flop the world - MTT Poker Strategy

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy No Limit Tournaments

Merge $11FT: Loose defend in BB, flop the world

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 1 of 2

1 2

Page 1 of 2

1 2

10-06-2013 , 03:48 PM

bikram

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 2,651

I defend loosely in BB here against UTG raiser and shallow stack, but EP raiser was 52/50 over 68 hands and 36/36 from EP over 11 hands, so I don't have to give UTG raiser too much credit. Any value in folding BB here to maniac to let the shorties bust for ICM?

I think I played the rest of the hand well. No real value in leading flop (HUD says UTG c-betting 100%) and no real value in raising flop either given that SPR will be 1.3 OTT. Thoughts?

Merge, $750 Buy-in (1,750/3,500 blinds, 350 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #19821481

CO: 34,994 (10 bb)
BTN: 44,413 (12.7 bb)
SB: 57,734 (16.5 bb)
Hero (BB): 65,432 (18.7 bb)
MP1: 161,566 (46.2 bb)
MP2: 24,218 (6.9 bb)
MP3: 21,198 (6.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9

MP1 raises to 7,000, 5 folds, Hero calls 3,500

Flop: (18,200) 9

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets 9,100, Hero calls 9,100

Turn: (36,400) 3

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets 145,116 and is all-in, Hero calls 48,982 and is all-in

River: (134,364) 7

(2 players, 2 are all-in)

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

Quote

10-06-2013 , 04:01 PM

princekuh1o

adept

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 1,134

fold pre for ICM reasons and just regular ol' reasons as well

Quote

10-06-2013 , 04:02 PM

bikram

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 2,651

Quote:

Originally Posted by princekuh1o

fold pre for ICM reasons and just regular ol' reasons as well

Even with antes and UTG's stats?

Quote

10-06-2013 , 04:14 PM

WashUrHandsPlz

banned

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 2,570

std antes, std fold.

Quote

10-06-2013 , 04:17 PM

princekuh1o

adept

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 1,134

Quote:

Originally Posted by bikram

Even with antes and UTG's stats?

Antes dont change my decision...and if you're flatting with K9 with 18 bb its generally so we can check/jam often enough to make it profitable..we can never peel a turn and pretty much are going to be folding to cbets a ton.

i admit i didnt look at openers stats and maybe there is an arguments to flatting because we dont have to worry about reversed implied odds as much or w/e, but for reasons above coupled with ICM (so many shorties) I dont like the flat.

Quote

10-06-2013 , 04:23 PM

bikram

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 2,651

Quote:

Originally Posted by princekuh1o

Would you suggest folding if I faced this raise in BB from BTN or CO opener? Because I think UTG's range is pretty close to a standard raiser's range from those positions....

Quote

10-06-2013 , 04:43 PM

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

I think the defend is OK getting 4.3-1. The way this guy is playing with the big stack though, you may have to play pretty much fit or fold and hope to get paid off like you did when you hit.

Quote

10-06-2013 , 06:45 PM

shichibukai

adept

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 1,018

Quote:

Originally Posted by betgo

I think the defend is OK getting 4.3-1. The way this guy is playing with the big stack though, you may have to play pretty much fit or fold and hope to get paid off like you did when you hit.

come on betgo please is easy fold

Quote

10-06-2013 , 08:05 PM

bikram

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 2,651

Quote:

Originally Posted by shichibukai

come on betgo please is easy fold

Is there anything to be said for the fact that my read was right having played 100 hands with the guy, that he would bet like crazy regardless of whether he had anything, which proved to be the case, making it a profitable play. Lose the minimum if miss, but good chance of doubling up otherwise?

Quote

10-06-2013 , 08:25 PM

#10

Economos

journeyman

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 306

Marginal with ICM considerations but I would do the same thing. When we double up we have the best chance at winning the entire tournament so I think that balances / outweighs the icm considerations for when we bust.

Quote

10-06-2013 , 09:03 PM

#11

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

Quote:

Originally Posted by Economos

We aren't busting that often. Mostly we fold on the flop when we miss. When we hit or lose, semibluff with a draw, or make some big play we could bust.

Quote

10-07-2013 , 01:42 AM

#12

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

Fold pre, donklead Flop small and let him click buttons

Quote

10-07-2013 , 07:13 AM

#13

Turbulenc3

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 2,170

This would be a standard defend for me against those kind of stats if not for all the short stacks. Think folding is the best play in this case.

Most people fold their bb way too much to min raises when they're short stacked. Guy is playing half of the hands and 30% from ep. K9 is 43% against top 30% and we're getting over 4:1. Granted our post flop visibility is often a bit murky but we're not gonna be dominated enough to fold this in a non FT situation, and you have to really suck to not be able to realize 20% ish of the pot against a wide range with this hand.

Quote

10-07-2013 , 07:35 AM

#14

Aon1234

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 530

It depends on whether you know him to be agro post. In general w/o knowing it, I'd fold, cause of ICM considerations. However, I believe you've seen him play some postflop and if there were couple of aggressive plays on his part, this hand was very wp.

Quote

10-07-2013 , 08:57 AM

#15

AllorNuffink

banned

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 303

Why would u put urself in this situation at a FT v the big stack with a bunch of shorties? Just fold pre. As played post flop it is fine, but pre imo is a disaster (in this exact situation)

Quote

10-07-2013 , 09:08 AM

#16

Economos

journeyman

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 306

Quote:

Originally Posted by betgo

We aren't busting that often. Mostly we fold on the flop when we miss. When we hit or lose, semibluff with a draw, or make some big play we could bust.

I know we aren't busting that often, that's the point. That's why I said I would do the same thing. I just said it was marginal because everyone else thought it was a snap fold and I respect their opinion.

Quote

10-07-2013 , 09:09 AM

#17

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

Oh, yeh, I wasn't seeing the tournament situation. Fold pre is better. Great when you flop trips and he bullies, but on the whole not worth getting involved.

Quote

10-07-2013 , 09:14 AM

#18

Jmrode67

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 858

Yeah, can't see how this can even slightly be considered a call pre... it is a clear fold. Furo, why donk flop? "let him click buttons"- seems like as played would be letting him click buttons more readily (not being results oriented).

Quote

10-07-2013 , 10:19 AM

#19

ssnyc

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 38,129

shove pre?

Quote

10-07-2013 , 10:21 AM

#20

bikram

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 2,651

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssnyc

shove pre?

Interesting. Isn't that also potentially ICM suicide though? I have a feeling he would call pretty light.

Quote

10-07-2013 , 10:22 AM

#21

bikram

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 2,651

Quote:

Originally Posted by betgo

Oh, yeh, I wasn't seeing the tournament situation. Fold pre is better. Great when you flop trips and he bullies, but on the whole not worth getting involved.

The 1 extra BB is not going to crush me ICM-wise, but I am assuming you believe the ICM problem is because of the high reverse implied odds potential?

Quote

10-07-2013 , 11:30 AM

#22

Moonshine

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 4,446

Stumbled upon this thread...

I'm admittedly not a tournament player and my ICM is rusty since I haven't played a SNG since 2006.

Would you "ICM" guys be able to show some math as to why calling is -$ev preflop? It's massively ++ chip EV for sure and I can't imagine ICM turns it into a fold. It's not like the hero is sitting on a chip stack that is guaranteeing him a 2nd place finish here...

Quote

10-07-2013 , 11:41 AM

#23

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

You are not going to bust that often, but you do risk busting getting involved with a big stack. You are getting 4.3-1 pot odds, but you are slightly behind his range, you are OOP, he has initiative and more chips. So it isn't massively cEV+ to call, but more of a marginal situation preflop.

I think 3-betting or pushing would be really bad though.

Quote

10-07-2013 , 12:46 PM

#24

cicakman

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,229

shovel pre is bad

Quote

10-07-2013 , 01:06 PM

#25

Moonshine

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 4,446

Quote:

Originally Posted by betgo

He's opening 36% preflop. You probably VERY conservatively realize at least 70% of your equity with K9o vs that range. You are calling 3500 for a final pot of 18200. K9o has like 46% equity preflop so post flop we would realize effectively 32.2% equity. That means 5860 of the pot is "ours" and the net chip ev on the call is 2360, 2/3 of a BB, which is a pretty ++ev play preflop. The call is +cEV if we realize a little more than 40% of our equity post flop.

Can anyone demonstrate with any quantitative means that ICM erases 2/3 of a BB on the expected chip value of a call?

Quote

Page 1 of 2

First

1 2

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 1 of 2

First

1 2

Last