Hand 2 is a call. Raising and then facing a shove would really suck in this spot. I don't mind a small raise in this spot if you think it will buy you a free card vs an overpair (but the raise should be smallish, maybe a minraise).

Hero calls 17K.

BB jams for 106K total.

UTG folds.

Hero?

We have top pair, J kicker, gutshot straight & backdoor hearts. Pot is 191K & it's 89K to call. I believe that he has some sets (most likely 88 and 77, as I block TT), some two pairs (more likely the 87 suited variety), some flush draws, some pair & straight draws, some naked straight draws, and maybe J9 for the straight (although I block this). We're getting 2-1 and have an opportunity to knock out what I believe is a strong player. On the flip side, we don't have to chase. We can protect our stack and "find a better spot." Thoughts?

I think you have too much equity to fold. Nine outs + a backdoor flush draw against even 87. And he could have all kinds of draws and combo draws here too.

Basically what nath said, but a little more in depth: we need to win 31.5% of the time here. Let's do some math and see how we're doing against each of the major possibilities.

1) Straight - bad shape. We only have around 7% against the straight we block (J9) and 18% against the straight we beat, 69. Seniors might fold offsuit 69 in the BB, so let's assume that's even with the likelihood of J9. That gives us 12.5% equity for this bucket.

2) Sets - 18%.

3) Two pair - assuming it's 87, 40%.

4) A higher T - 30%.

5) A high flush draw - 56%.

6) Pair and draw combo like 98 - 67%.

Supposing I take a simple average, we have 37% equity, which is more than we need, and by quite a bit. Add in the fact that there are fewer combos of straights and sets than the other stuff, and you have a slam dunk call.

As far as the tournament situation, I feel it's favorable. We will only lose 1/6 of our stack if we lose. That's pretty rare for such a late stage of the tournament. If we had a more middle class stack, I'd be much more worried about the risk of going down to 100-150k. But we'll still have nearly 100 BBs if we win, and have the opportunity to knock out what you said is a tough opponent, and cement our image as table captain.

Also, anecdotally, this kind of overbet squeeze play tends to be a draw more often than a set, at least from what I've seen. I'd be even more sure if it was 150k but the made hands often try to get cute and milk people into calling down.

I like calling. It also shows the table you're not afraid to play bigger pots without super nutted hands so I think people will be hesitant to pull big moves on you later on which is also worth something.

Three respondents, all on the side of calling. Any additional responses before I reveal?

Seems like the consensus is to call here, which is what I did. BB revealed 88 for middle set, which held. (UTG claimed he had suited overcards (hearts), so my backdoor draw was quite remote.)


On to hand #3...

We are down to 20-24 players remaining, with 18 spots making the money. I'm now second in chips at my table with about 450K. Blinds are 6K/12K/12K (BBA).

UTG, who covers me, raises to 28K. Action folds to me in the CO, and I look down at AKcc. Action?

We have a premium hand, in position, vs a stack we can apply a lot of pressure to (given there are ICM implications here a few spots off the bubble). Mandatory 3b imo. I probably make it a clean 80k but wouldn’t mind going larger about 100k for max pressure.

Agree with the above. I think calling any premium here is bad and especially AK since it benefits from having FE and a lower SPR.

What's our plan if V 4 bet jams? It sucks to bust a big stack this close to the money but we will have nearly 100 BBs if we win. Tricky spot. We are almost never ahead, especially in a senior event, but if we put in the 3 bet pot odds will be compelling. I'll defer to the more experienced posters on what the ICM math says.

In general i’m not 3b folding AKs in this spot but with reads I would (ie: vs a super tight player). It’s not the direct bubble and we gotta get all the chips somehow. ICM be damned, I’m fine to flip with JJ-QQ for the mega stack and then abuse the hell outta the bubble.

Obviously vs the average seniors event player it’s pretty gross but I’m still going with it vs a lot of players.

Yeah I lean towards agreeing unless we have lots of hands vs this player and this is literally his first 4 bet. Better to try to win than sacrifice EV for a meager min cash.

There is also the possibility that we are up against AK.

Is this what happened, Top Gun?

I mostly 3-bet and call off to a 4-bet.

With 18 paid it makes a big difference whether we're at 24 or 20. At 20 I might be concerned enough about the bubble to just 3-bet jam. But needing to lose 25% of the remaining field to make the money is too far away to be concerned with that.

With a top-five stack, I didn't want to risk my stack vs the only player at the table who could take me out. While UTG had been slightly more active than others at the table, he had shown down strong hands, so I assessed that he wasn't opening light, especially UTG. I decided to utilize position and assess flop before proceeding further. If button or a blind jams & UTG folds, I would call. If UTG calls, I might back-jam. Not sure what I'd do if UTG jams in this scenario.

Button and blinds fold, and we go to a flop of J73 rainbow (no clubs) with 86K in the pot. UTG bets 40K. Hero?

Sorry, I'm going from memory, as I didn't take notes. I understand your point that it makes a difference if there were 20 left or 24. It was probably 22 or 23. I think we were 7 handed and am pretty sure we had very recently redrawn for the final three tables.

Understand and agree in a more relevant ICM scenario. Here we aren’t in the money or on the direct bubble. I’m also assuming this is a relatively fast structure so sitting around playing passively with a premium hand in this spot isn’t a great strategy. For example, you have 40-50bbs to start, let’s say you lose this hand, go thru the blinds once or twice, maybe lose another small pot. The blinds go up, now you have 20bbs. It happens very quickly in these structures. You gotta pick up chips constantly and be willing to die in order to build/maintain a top chip stack.

Sorry but I just can’t get behind flatting AKs here at all. As played now I call the cbet and go from there (and kick myself for not 3betting). We can still have the best hand and/or improve to it and win at showdown.

Last thing I’ll add is that 3betting isn’t “risking your stack”. That’s very MUBSy thinking. We’re 3betting for value! We want to be called and take a flop in position. That’s a great outcome.

I actually agree with the call pre-flop. In a senior tournament its unlikely UTG is opening wide even though we are getting close to the money.

If I had a read that he was opening wide then yes I would 3-bet. But in this spot in position I often call with AK in a senior tournament. AKs is even better because it plays well multi-player.

Its not that I don't 3-bet AK in senior tournaments even from the blinds but against UTG or even UTG+1 opens it can end up being costly.

Given the flop sucked (no flush draw, BDFD, or gutter) I'm folding.

Even if you always fold to a 4 bet (and that discussion might get fairly technical so I'm not 100% sure), I think 3 bet-folding AK is better than flatting here. And this hand illustrates why. Flatting gives up the lead. You could have c-bet as the preflop aggressor on this board but now he's c-betting and you're in an awkward spot.

Here's why I like 3 betting: even if UTG is opening a tight range, here's what that looks like at a 7-handed table: 66-AA, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, some lower suited aces, KQ, KJs, maybe QJs/KTs/QTs/JTs. If he's tight he's folding a ton of stuff to the 3 bet, especially the Broadway cards, of which there are more combos than the pairs. So we have fold equity, and we have the chance to win with a c-bet. If we call we have neither of those things.

As played I think we have a clear fold. We are almost certainly behind and if our A or K does come it will be hard to get much value.

^Agree with most of that although the opening range is probably a bit generous. Your average senior is limping a lot of those hands.

Something else to consider is that a 3b could very well fold out a strong hand like TT-JJ. Sounds crazy I know but this is a live small stakes seniors event. The mistakes you will see at this level are insane. Even in an open field at these stakes the players will be atrocious (in my part of the country anyways).

I decided to fold and preserve my stack.

If I had chosen to 3-bet pre, it would have gotten interesting. After V and I were part of a 7-way chop (as was the V from Hand #2), he said that he had AKdd.

Congratulations on the score!