£120 entry. Freeze out.
100k stack, 30 minute levels
We’re in level 5 at 600/1200 no ante.

Hero is short stack with 33000

JdTd I open to 2600
Only called by button

Pot 7000
Flop 4h4d3h

I bet 2600 btn calls it’s a decent flop for me with a flush draw and unders. Villain has been sticky postflop and hasn’t folded to a c-bet yet.

Pot 12600
Turn Js

I bet 6000 btn calls my hand improves, I continue the aggression and size to allow a close to pot jam on river. All his hands that include a 4 should raise here, yes?

Pot 24600
River 10h

I jam my hand now beats all his better jacks and his diamond draws missed.


Thoughts on all?

Is this correct? You say you flopped a flush draw but the flop as you wrote it says two hearts and a diamond.

****’s sake

4h4d3d !!

I like your sizing preflop and even on the flop (though I would probably make it 2,000 and raise all in if I get raised)

On the turn I wouldn't bet 6,000 though. Its either check, 4200 or 8400 for me and I prefer 4200 because we block flush draws and it keeps the pot a bit smaller. Personally I don't think villain always raises with 4x because he is in position and gets to go all in on the river based on your sizing so far.

On the river I would check call. We are definitely ahead of all hands that don't have 4x/33. If we shove all bluffs fold and only Jx calls that we are ahead of (and we block Jx). Even then a lot of Jx would likely still fold because we are making it look like we have TT+/JT+. I'd rather allow hands like 56/A2/A5/67 to bluff. Though it does seem like all of the gutters would fold the turn unless they are also flush draws.

You shouldn't be leading this flop OOP most of the time, and when you do with JTs you should bet small at the highest frequency
If you bet the flop, turn follows the same strategy (check OOP a lot, sometimes raise - except when you raise the turn, raise bigger like 70% pot)

as played by the river, lead out for 1/4 pot half the time and 1/2 the other half. GTO is never folding here if jammed on but I think there's a case to fold and walk away with about 10bb left if jammed on if you think your opponent won't bluff you often in the face of small river sizing.


A better strategy that I would have done that's easier for a human is:
check/call reasonable flop bets
check/call reasonable turn bets (top pair and diamond draw)
lead turn for half pot, exploitatively bet-folding unless i think villain will blast off too often

I would lead flop smaller on a paired board, especially against a villain that gets really sticky, since he's not folding anyway. Alternately, if villain bets too often when checked to, you might check-raise.

I think a different turn sizing is probably better, 1/3 or 2/3. But I also would not expect villain to necessarily raise 4x+, not with position and the expectation that you can keep firing off your missed draws and the like.

I disagree here. What bluffs does he have that call twice and don't put in a raise at some point? The fact that we have missed diamonds helps a ton; I think we might get hero called by a mid pair that thinks we've just blasted off with the missed flush draw or some other missed draw. I don't think something like 76 is going call/call here, or at least they shouldn't. Especially as played, the turn is a great spot to raise those draws that can't win at showdown.

That said, you don't need to shove the river, especially if you take the smaller bet-sizing line, but I would still go ahead and value bet this. As played I think a river shove is OK even if you do lose to 4x/33 some part of the time.

Thanks for the thoughts so far.
I half expected lots of ‘fold pre’ type advice! Glad to see we’ve moved beyond this.

Clearly I lost the hand, and my stack.

I see the merits of trying to get to the river with a smaller pot although there is a small added piece of context that I missed out. We’re about 10 minutes away from 800/1600/1600 which is the first level with BB ante. The impact of that increase was on my mind and this hand was my chance to build some resilience into my stack. I need to address my old school thinking about short stacks

I think your reasoning for betting the turn and river are incorrect.

On the turn, now you have showdown value. If you bet and get raised, now you are in a tough spot.

On the river, you would want to check to let the missed hearts straights and flushes bluff.

I think your shove is fine but it is with the hope that you get called by a pp. I actually can see it might make sense to bet small on the river.

What position did you open from? This flop could be a check depending on the position you raised from. OOP we have a lot of checks post flop, even as the preflop aggressor. However, this hand will always beet some of the time. But maybe check is still better. And when you do c-bet the c-bet is smaller, closer to 2k. As was already mentioned, you are supposed to bet small on a paired flop.

I like your bet on the turn, but you can also check here too.

With top 2 and an SPR lower than 1, you can play for stacks. The solver likes both to bet small and call a shove or shove. Betting small has a higher EV in the solver.

While maybe it's not how anyone else would have played it, but it is solver approved.

I personally think I check the flop.

Not really, with SPR this low, and he shoves it's a fairly easy call.

Honestly, I think this hand was played fine.

Pre is a mix of call/check on flop, but our best hands generally want to push equity so I can see this being ok either way especially with a hand like JT. I may want to check more with our best flush draws looking to either check-call/check-raise those, but against a sticky villain who continues a lot we can put a lot of pressure on their wide range on a lot of turns.

Turn is also fine. Villain really has no 4x here so we're not worried about him having traps very often, most of this traps should actually come from stuff like overpairs. We do have to be concerned about villain floating a lot of better Jx here but once we get here with this SPR our hand is too good to do much else but pile.

River is fine, especially if we think a lot of villain won't bliuff enough or value bet thin enough with a J. Even though the solver likes small bets, I don't love small bet versus population mostly because they'll take opportunity to just call with Jx or Tx (when they should shove) whereas when we jam we force them to make decisions with those hands.

What worse hands continue to call on this board texture when the J comes ott? How does your bet sizing affect that calling range?

Size turn accordingly.

The fact V is sticky is very relevant - but sticky all streets, or just flop?

And I’d bet 1/4 pot flop.