I would lead flop smaller on a paired board, especially against a villain that gets really sticky, since he's not folding anyway. Alternately, if villain bets too often when checked to, you might check-raise.
I think a different turn sizing is probably better, 1/3 or 2/3. But I also would not expect villain to necessarily raise 4x+, not with position and the expectation that you can keep firing off your missed draws and the like.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Rick
On the river I would check call. We are definitely ahead of all hands that don't have 4x/33. If we shove all bluffs fold and only Jx calls that we are ahead of (and we block Jx). Even then a lot of Jx would likely still fold because we are making it look like we have TT+/JT+. I'd rather allow hands like 56/A2/A5/67 to bluff. Though it does seem like all of the gutters would fold the turn unless they are also flush draws.
I disagree here. What bluffs does he have that call twice and don't put in a raise at some point? The fact that we have missed diamonds helps a ton; I think we might get hero called by a mid pair that thinks we've just blasted off with the missed flush draw or some other missed draw. I don't think something like 76 is going call/call here, or at least they shouldn't. Especially as played, the turn is a great spot to raise those draws that can't win at showdown.
That said, you don't need to shove the river, especially if you take the smaller bet-sizing line, but I would still go ahead and value bet this. As played I think a river shove is OK even if you do lose to 4x/33 some part of the time.