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Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK?

02-29-2024 , 05:53 PM
Multi-flight $200 NL buy-in tournament. I've done a nice job building 2x the starting stack. This happened immediately following the first break. Blinds 200/400/400.

There's an early open to 1200. Hero wakes up with KK in MP. Hero raises to 3000.

Folds around to BB, who pops to 18000. BB has me covered.

Early open folds instantly.

Hero needs a minute. BB has changed his seating position from normal to one leg across the seat of the chair and the other leg helping him stand. He's basically gotten up. He's leaning in over his chips. Seems like he's very very interested in the hand.

Does hero even think about folding here?!?
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
02-29-2024 , 09:46 PM
What is your stack size? Bbs?

Can I rebuy?
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
02-29-2024 , 09:50 PM
Not looking to fold KK preflop in a multiflight where villain can buy in again.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
02-29-2024 , 10:16 PM
What are the stack depths? How old is the player in BB? Any reads on him from previous hands?
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
02-29-2024 , 10:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by deuceblocker
Not looking to fold KK preflop in a multiflight where villain can buy in again.
Yeah pretty much this.

In a $200 multi entry folding would be crazy.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-01-2024 , 02:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812
What is your stack size? Bbs?

Can I rebuy?
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
How old is the player in BB? Any reads on him from previous hands?
Haven't posted hands in a while so I am rusty on providing every detail. My apologies.

I started the hand with about 40k (100 BBs). Villain is 60ish male. He had ~55k (~140 BBs) and I remember him not playing many hands early on. Yes there are re-entries.

Would anyone make this fold?
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-01-2024 , 03:01 PM
Well there is no point to shoving but I am not folding.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-01-2024 , 09:28 PM
I'd probably 3-bet bigger this deep.

This is one of those entirely read-based situations, I guess. In theory you should never fold KK at this depth. In practice, there are players-- and the older they are, the more likely they are to be in this demographic-- whose cold 4-betting range is entirely AA (maybe KK+). It really comes down to whether you think this guy can have QQ/AK here or not.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-01-2024 , 11:26 PM
Nath, what do you think the benefit of a bigger 3b is when the bb 6x 4bets your sizing?
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-02-2024 , 01:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812
Nath, what do you think the benefit of a bigger 3b is when the bb 6x 4bets your sizing?
Well, at the time of the 3-bet we don't know that's going to happen. I would just generally 3-bet closer to 3.5x than 2.5x when this deep.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-02-2024 , 08:59 AM
Okay, I wasn't sure if you were saying a bigger 3 bet would change your decision after the 4b.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-02-2024 , 03:27 PM
I will say I think a fold can be made here. The player type and body language is really screaming AA, as is the cold 4b to 45x.

I get it's a $200 with reg still open, but no need to punt a stack if range is exactly {AA}, which sometimes you know is the case. I folded KK pre in a $400 with reg open to a player who did the *sit up straight* "how much is it?" when the bet is clear on the table, she 3bets, I 4b KK, she rips, foooooooooooooold. She showed it. There are times at the table where the action and mannerisms make it 100% clear.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-02-2024 , 09:06 PM
Yes, nice post black aces. it's hard to just give up a double stack and the villain does seem to be giving of the tells of aa.

That being said, there is no fold equity in raising, you have position post flop, you get to see 60% of the community cards and, if you somehow fold the flop, you basically have a starting stack. And, of course, you have kk.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-02-2024 , 10:38 PM
I don't like calling to possibly fold flop, bc the SPR will be so low that players will often get it in regardless. Folding an A hi flop when QQ jams bc he doesn't know what else to do after putting 18k in is a nightmare.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-03-2024 , 12:34 AM
Completely agree, but a shitty flop for black kings or red aces could happen. No much I am folding to, all I really meant was a fold on the flop leaves you with the same as rebought starting stack but a win gives you a monster stack at these levels.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-03-2024 , 10:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
I'd probably 3-bet bigger this deep.

This is one of those entirely read-based situations, I guess. In theory you should never fold KK at this depth. In practice, there are players-- and the older they are, the more likely they are to be in this demographic-- whose cold 4-betting range is entirely AA (maybe KK+). It really comes down to whether you think this guy can have QQ/AK here or not.
Agree with this. I would go 3.6k minimum and would favor and exploit to larger size like
4k- 4.5k honestly.

Idk I don’t think I’m folding here. It’s a $200 lol. 3k to 18k seems like really odd sizing and not ideal for AA. I might click it back here or just rip. I feel AK (scared) a lot here. When we run into AA, I just laugh and say oh brutal cooler. I would look at villian and ask myself is this the guy that only has AA here. If he is, sure I guess you sigh fold and tell no one. I can’t fold kk here- if I lose: it wasn’t meant to be this bullet and I buy in again.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-03-2024 , 11:31 PM
As Nath asked the effective stack size here is very important. We have twice the starting stack which is? In a $200 multi-day tournament I would expect the starting stack to be 30,000. So do we have 60,000 chips? More importantly what is the BB's stack size? The key to this is what % of his stack did BB bet? If it is over 33% then understand BB is never folding and is likely to shove on the flop. Which means BB is much more likely to have AA than AK or QQ (and more likely to have QQ than AK)

What has been said about 3-bet sizing is very important as well. 3-bet raising to 2.5x is basically asking to be called. It also invites a BB to call as well with a pair. We will never know when the set is hit. My preference with KK is to get it HU in position when I am 3-betting. I will always 3-bet in position to 3x. I do not want there to be any speculation as to the strength of my hand. If OOP I will make it 4x. For every caller in between the opener and me I will add 1x.

So if I were the BB here I would have made it 12,000. However because there was an EP raiser it is understandable if its a little bit more. Also, when there is a bet that is smallish (like the 3-bet here) I will often raise slightly more like to 13,000. So 18,000 is a little over the top. For many players the size of their bets means their hand is stronger or else JJ. Of course if the BB jammed for 18,000 then that means the range is wider. The other thing is, if I am the BB and have less than 39,000 chips I would just 4-bet jam. I am pot committing anyway and it means I don't have OOP post flop disadvantage.

In a $200 tournament I am basically never folding KK pre-flop. In my life I have folded KK pre-flop twice. Once vs AA after I raised 3x UTG and BB jammed with 125x. The other time vs QQ when I had 3-bet vs UTG and BB 4-bet half his stack. Kind of like this spot. I would either jam here (likely) or just call and only fold the flop if there is a Q when the BB jams.

There are two other key things here from your description. The first is that you are just before the break. While most players tend to be much tighter before a break there are some players (like me) who like to take advantage and be hyper aggressive because most players will fold and go to the bathroom rather than play a long hand into the break. So the extra large bet may be the attempt to get you to walk away from AK if villain has QQ.

The other thing is the read you have on the player who is now standing and leaning over the table. This typically indicates strength where moving away from the table indicates weakness. But the other issue is the standing up part. It is not really legal during a hand and is often an attempt to intimidate and get somebody to fold. So a lot going on with these conflicting tells.

In the end I would likely just jam here. Whether or not BB has more chips than us.
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote
03-04-2024 , 09:07 PM
I mean it’s not like you have 10 times starting. Im tank jamming and expect heaps of spaz JJ/QQ calling as well as AK. Sure some AA but like, it happens?

Last edited by nootaboos; 03-04-2024 at 09:10 PM. Reason: Typo
Live: Bet size + live read = fold KK? Quote

      
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