$250 daily event 124 entries 17 paid

15 left final two tables
No sizable pay jumps until FT
8k/16k/16k level

CO chip leader opens to 40k
I defend KTdd in BB off 342k (21.375 bb)

Flop (6.5 bb): Qd 9d 5h
Check
CO jams for my 18.75 bb
Hero???

Hard to imagine a better flop for us here when we choose to flat and see the flop. A ton of outs to straight and flush nuts and King may still be good.

Even against AdAx our equity is 42.3%. If Villain doesn't have the Ace of diamonds we go up to 46%. The only thing we're crushed by are the 3 combos of QQ, which he could be shoving because of the wet board, but we still have decent equity.

If we win here, we're in great shape for a deep run. Already in the money, Villain is much more likely to shove 77+ here with the same philosophy of being happy to take a flip with the reward of doubling up.

I like a 3-bet pre here, but as played I'm calling unless I have a read on villain as very tight.

This is an excellent spot to shove pre.

As played, wow, this spot sucks! I have no idea, honestly. I think you can probably call off and it's fine, although the late-game ICM has some impacts on that (not as significant at this point as it will be when you're at or near more pay jumps, though).

You're in bad shape against a set and worse shape against AdJd, but everything else he'd realistically have, with the pod odds you're either close to breakeven with a call (even AA with the Ad) or better, even an equity favorite sometimes (AQ without the Ad). I would be surprised if villain was shoving something as weak and potentially crushed as 77 here.

So I guess call? I can't say I feel good about it, but I think on balance you probably are getting the odds you need. Unless this is a super soft tournament where you have a massive edge, then I might fold. But you just have so much equity here, even though you're going to bust a ton. So in that sense, I guess it ultimately depends on what you think of your edge and if it's big enough to pass this spot. (And no matter how good you are, being this short on chips makes it tough to meaningfully exert any edge.)

If CO is raising a lot, then probably push, but this is a good hand to call with with immediate pot odds. You could only be in some trouble here against an ace high flush draw. Have to call with pot odds. If you win, you have a good chance at a top place.

I like the jam pre too. Seems like a spot CO can be raising reasonably wide so the gap between his open range and calling range (AJ+ 88+) feels quite significant. Also worth noting, it's nice to know if you jam here he folds hands dominating us like KJs, KQo, ATo, but some of the hands he calls with like 88, 99, AQ, AJ we are in great shape against.

I would call the jam. Great spot to double up so we can go deep and we are in the money already.

I would typically call preflop in the BB but would jam from BTN or SB.

Yeah, I think this covers many of the reasons why the solver likes shoving KTs specifically in these spots-- you block AK, you fold some better hands, you have reasonable equity against the calling range.

Also, this mf said

Slightly more interesting spot on the flop than it appears to be at first blush, we need about 42.6% equity at cEV, but this an MTT, final two tables so we probably have about 5-6% risk premium at a minimum. (although chip distributions do matter here) If so, we're looking at needing more like 48-49%. If I give him a range that has all of his QJ+, and his good flush draws, we're about 47% vs. that range.

As villain gets a little more trappy with his premiums and is weighted towards maybe a range that's just nut flush draws, best Qx, overpairs most of the time and 55-99, our equity goes down to about 45%.

There are obviously other scenarios where villain has way more bluffs and this becomes a slam dunk, but overall it's pretty close and folding is actually not insane against typical live villains in a $250.

As to preflop, this is just a pure call off 22BB even with ICM. We will have jams here out of the BB but they'll be a lot more of the middle pairs, the offsuit Ax and some offsuit broadway stuff like KQo/KJo that don't play quite as well post-flop OOP. If we were in the SB or BTN, this hand would definitely click and/or jam more.