Tournament:
Live event in Switzerland:
Buy-IN: 1000 + 100, 46 Buy-IN, 14 Re Entry, Pot 60k

Payouts:
1st - 20.8k
2st - 13k
3rd - 8.7k
4th - 5.8k
5th - 4.2k
6th - 3k
7th - 2.2k
8th - 1.8k

Players:
Seat 2: ~1.3 M
Seat 5: ~900k
Seat 6 (hero): ~400k
Seat 8: ~1M

Situation:
4-handed after 2 hours finaltable. Hero in the SB with Blinds (8k/16k) and 25BB. Villain (seat 5) opens on the BTN with 35k.

Hero looks down at AJo an re-raises to 125k.

Villain goes All-IN.

Hero?

After 2 hours at the FT, we should have some (a lot) of reads on our opponents. That's a good place to start.

You put about 30% of your stack in, presumably this was to give you room to fold to a shove. This hand seems quite marginal; We'd be calling off AQ, and folding AT. I haven't looked at ICM, but barring reads, this is probably going to be a fold.

Your hand feels a little too strong to 3b/fold with almost 30% of your stack in the middle and the inherently aggressive button/sb dynamic. Also, you're so far behind chip distribution wise that we should be a bit more inclined to gamble to catch up seeing as how even a double up still puts us 4/4. If there was someone shorter than you and some ICM pressure involved, now I could see a bit more merit for 3b/folding. Looks like a fairly standard rejam preflop here.

If i had to create a range here off the cuff w no reads, perhaps something like 3b/get it in with AQ+ 99+, jam with AJ, AT, KQ, KJs, other suited royalty, 22-88 and 3b bluff with something like your suited Aces, A8/A9o, K9s, K8s, Q9s, J9s.

call

You should not 3 bet fold this hand, either shove or 3 bet call that.

Villain have to be super exploitable and only 4 bet premiums for this to be a fold.

If it’s not good enough to snap call after putting in 1/3 of your chips as the short stack, short handed, why did you three bet?

This should almost certainly just be a 3-bet shove pre.

Don't 3-bet this size unless you're sure you want to call or fold to a 4-bet. And at a final table off this stack size you probably shouldn't 3-bet this large anyway. 100k is a better sizing that will still let you fold out light opens and let you get away from your bluffs.

AJ is right in the spot where you don't really want to have to decide. AK/AQ are always shoving here but so are a lot of medium pairs and maybe even just hands with strong equity that are trying to get you to fold.

My bet sizing here OOP vs a BTN open would have been 140k which means I just would have jammed pre-flop rather than 3-bet more than 33% effective stack.

Personally I jam at 30% rather than raise so like nath I would have jammed pre-flop rather than raise to 125k. In general <25 bb's I will 3-bet jam unless it is a min raise then its more like < 22 bb's.

Here we need better than like 30.55% equity to be +EV and since we are short stacked I would just go for it. We are only slightly -EV vs AK/AQ/KK/QQ/JJ and vs 55-TT we have about 46% equity. In this spot I'd rather call here to double up with AJo rather than be down to like 17 blinds which would be a massive short stack where even if we doubled up we would still be the short stack...

My guess though is we are mostly up against KK/QQ/TT/AA/JJ or AK/AQ. All other hands would at least sometimes have called to see if they liked the flop in position.

The other thing not mentioned is how long the levels are and how close we are to dropping below 15 blinds if we just fold.

In these spots I also consider what my reads are on the other players. If there is one or more players who I have excellent reads then I would likely fold here and go for it when I know what the other player is going to do. Also, what have the other players seen me do when I have 3-bet from the SB or even the BB? If I have shown one or more hands much weaker than AJo then it's just an auto call. If I have only shown very strong hands better than AJo then it might be time to let it go... Lastly, if I am the worst player at the table its basically a call.

My understanding with ICM is that there are definitely spots where you can put in 30 percent and fold. Whether this is such a spot (or hand), I am not sure.

Oh sure, but that would be with shorter stacks at the table or a bunch of all ins on front of you, not as the short stack 3 better heads-up.

Or when you're sure you're bluffing.

The worst time to do it is when you have a hand where you don't like either option when you're 4-bet.

The biggest mistake is your 3 bet sizing. I think you can accomplish the same thing by 3 betting to 90K and then you have options if you face a shove. I don't like your sizing with your hand. Now you are in a tough spot and I am probably leaning towards a call. You have to call 275K to win 824K, so you need about 33% equity. And with AJ you have to call it if you put the villain's range as AA-88/AQ/AK

Again, sure, but i have roughly 23bbs and 38%ish of average stack, I am looking to pick a spot and gii and double up.

I am pressing on the gas and never hitting the brakes with this hand, in this spot. Once I make the decision to 3bet, I wouldn’t second guess the call, regardless of what you run into.

To normally win the tournament 4 handed as the short stack, you need to win chips, not make great folds.

Easy shove initially. If you are going to not shove 3!, you should do it with hands that are clear calls or folds to a shove and go smaller like 90K.

Absent some incredible read that you haven’t disclosed, if you 3bet to 90k and fold to the shove, don’t show your laydown because no one will agree to chop until you are out.

How many of you guys are finding a fold here if you 3bet smaller?

I'm never 3-bet raising to 90k pre-flop. We have basically no FE. Whatever I raised with OTB I am always going to call a <3x 3bet and see the flop. What we are doing is creating a large pot OOP with a decent hand but we are only going to hit the flop like 33% of the time and I guess some % of gutters. So do we c-bet if we miss completely? Do we c-bet with a gutter where the initial raiser has a likely pair?

This is why I am jamming pre-flop. But if for some reason we don't want to jam (like I have great reads on the players just not this hand) then I am likely to fold rather than call or 3-bet to 90k. But that would be unusual for me. Normally I just jam pre-flop or against a very tight player I fold.

I think everyone here is underestimating risk premium. For CeV, we need to be good about 33% of the time. For ICM, we need to be good about 43.5% of the time.

This follows the idea that we are NOT committed when we put in 30% of our stack in a heavy ICM spot. You can construct ranges where we have the required equity to call off here, but they'd have to be pretty wide. As an example, if Villain is jamming 55+, Axs, AT+, KQo, and all suited broadways...we'd have 49% equity. That range has a lot of hands we dominate.

Making it 90K preflop is fine, but not with this hand. Maybe with TT+/AK and some bluffs. As played, it is a close decision with ICM, which is partly why as played is awful.

I don't think I am, but I didn't do the calcs.

Exactly-- this is what my point comes down to. This is not a hand we want to put in a 3-bet and have a decision against a 4-bet. It plays much better as a shove in part so you can maximize your fold equity and put the ICM pressure on the other player.

First I would like to thank you for the comments. I really appreciate this forum.

By the way, the blind levels were 50 minutes and we were about halfway through.

Button is a decent player who was very active at the final table. With some good bluffs for sure.

I re-raised for the following reason: If the big blind wakes up with a big hand [AA, KK, QQ, AKs] and jams or re-raises I have the option to fold comfortably, because against this range I am way behind. And when the Button also would have a big hand they get it in and the chip distribution changes to our favour.

After the button went all-in I decided to call. My thought was that his range also includes 77, 88, 99, TT, KQo, KQs, KJs, QJs and maybe JTs. Against this range I don't do badly. The next tought was, that AJo 4-handed is a very strong hand.. to strong to fold. The final consideration before the call was that I was clearly the short stack and therefore needed to do something.

The button showed KK. No help from the board.

When I left the casino (and the day after) I was very disappointed with my decision. My feeling at that moment said: With an all-in, the button can actually only have a range of TT+ / AQ / AK. Against which I do very poorly. Then I thought whether this thought is result-oriented and whether AJo 4-handed is simply too strong to fold.

After reading your comments, I'm not sure whether a jam, 3-bet (90k) and fold, or 3-bet (90k) and call is the right play.

You are being results oriented, especially with you rethinking his range. You were the short stack and ran into a monster, it was your turn to die.

I did run the icm. Your stack was worth about 9100 at the time. As being discussed in another thread, not a bad time to talk Icm chop.

It is kind of close on whether to call the push because of ICM and because you appear committed with that sizing, which looks stronger than a push or a 3! to about 90K. However, it was bad to raise like that with the idea of folding to a cold 4!. Have to shove initially here. Can't worry too much about busting out as the shortest stack.

Umm 3b shipping 25bb with AJos seems pretty fail.

If we can’t 3b/fold can we just flat the min raise and poker?

3! ship over a button raise is the play. AJ should have good equity if called, and you are getting a lot of folds. You could flat some hands, but you are OOP, not closing the action, and shorter stacked. With weaker hands or against an earlier position raise, it might be a decision between flat, 3!/fold, and maybe push.

Button is raising maybe half of his hands. He can only call a small percentage of those to the push. Some of what you are called by is 99/TT, etc., which you are not dominated by. The expected loss against KK, etc. is not that huge. It is a very basic resteal situation. I would shove 22-99 also, and a lot of other hands. Would have some 3!/calls and 3!/folds. I would also have some flats, but not sure if everyone plays that way.

Unfortunate he had KK and you missed. Either AJ is getting called by hands it dominates like ATs and KJs or you could profitably shove like ATC.

I would shove any pp, any suited ace, most broadway, etc. I might only 3!/call like QQ+ or JJ+ due to ICM and playing shallow OOP if called. I would probably be unbalanced and have a lot more 3!/folds than 3!/calls. I would also flat quite a few hands, otherwise I would way overfolding. Maybe OP got so short playing too tight, since he is concerned about gii with AJo here.