Live event in Aus, hero is 5/5 with approx 30bb (however stacks 2nd through 5th are quite close together).

Payouts:
1st 70k
2nd 50k
3rd 34k
4th 23k
5th 16.3k

Older tight player opens UTG.
Next to act young aggro 3bets.
Chip leader has 150bbs and has been running the table. He cold 4bets OTB to 15bb. SB folds.

Hero looks down at AKo in BB

Discuss

Wow.

First of all congratulations on going deep in a $1,000 tournament

My first reaction is that I would fold. Tight UTG guy can have JJ+ and not go away so we would be facing at least two opponents and if we face two it is possible there is another AK and we are a long shot to survive against a PP.

My second reaction is f' it. Shove with zero fold equity and see if we can double up against the chip leader and hope UTG folds. Not worried about young aggro solver/GTO guy. But in fairness to reality this is how I bounced Day 3 in the WSOP Main event. Though there was one less raiser. It went UTG raise, UTG + 1 3 bet I 4-bet with AKs but the 3-bettor couldn't fold because my 4-bet was exactly twice his 3-bet (like it is here). He had KTs and T on the flop so no cash.

My third reaction is it is about what you care about. If laddering up is important then folding is key here. UTG may also fold with zero fold equity as well and you stay close to 2nd place. If UTG does go for it (after you fold) it may be a flip with CL and you get to 4th place with a decent shot at 2nd.

In the past I have folded in spots like these and have been grateful for the most part. When I have shoved I have been up against AA on more than one occasion. And have lost flips.

But... Here if you win you more than double up and become much more likely to triple your winnings to 50k. So even if you are up against KK HU it is almost the right price. If it is a straight flip against QQ/JJ it seems like definitely the right price.

Honestly I don't know what I would do. There are days I shove and not because of what I am thinking but because of what my hands do. There are days I fold because laddering up means a lot to me against the particular remaining shortish stacks. There are days I call because winning (or 2nd place) is what I want to accomplish and this is the hand that will make the difference.

I guess to some extent it matters what CL has been doing. If CL has been 3-betting and 4-betting preflop a lot then I think I would lean towards jamming.

I would need to know the exact stack distribution before commenting.

If 2nd-5th are all close stackwise as you say, it's possible that the 4bettor has just made a small 4bet that commits them to every single other player which is rarely a bluff and never an induce with worse than AK. Hands like KQs or AQ that want to make a move would just move all-in. If the stack distribution is such that they can 4bet and fold to every other player except you, then their range should contain more bluffs.

Sorry for the typo. I would never call here. If playing I would shove to increase the possibility of a UTG fold.

I don’t see any way we can do other than sigh fold here.
Utg is described as old and tight a trait that our young aggro opponent is presumably aware of, yet he 3 bets.
In face of this the CL chooses to squeeze…

Fold and close your eyes until the hand is over. When you open them you might be at least $6.7k better off

I totally disagree. The old tight UTG could fold lots of his raises to 3 bets. Sometimes that's what being tight means. The young aggro could be trying to pick on him, and the CL has noticed this dynamic and figures he can pick up some chips.

I think we have to get the money in here. We are 5-handed, which means our 30 BB stack is closer to a 20 BB stack or even less, and the odds of something as good as AK coming around again before we're crippled are rather low. The chip leader will have hands that we are flipping with like QQ/JJ/TT, and some hands we dominate, such as AQ/AJs/KQs. Occasionally he will have AA/KK, yes, but it is said that he has been running the table so we can't assume that. Also, he will be facing only a 2x raise so if he was making a power move with A5s or something he's forced to call, which is a great result for us.

That said, Mr. Rick's advice is great. If you really care about laddering/the money makes a difference to you/other players at the table seem like they're itching to bust, etc., wait for a better spot. You don't lose anything by folding and could gain thousands this hand.

With different dynamics in place (e.g. everyone has 40 BB stacks and this happens) I obviously snap fold.

Without the other stack information it’s not possible to answer but in a spot where the big stack may ladder me up 18k, I could find a fold of AK in a no fold equity spot like this. CL can Hoover up all the chips if he gets me into second place, with a shot at first afterwards.

A call rather than a shove from the bb may induce calls by the OMC and then the agroo, or even further preflop raises/shoves.

I would probably check any flop to see the action before making my decision to shove my remaining 15k.

Good luck! I’m sticking it in even though not an ideal spot. Maybe fold if say 3-4th have 35-40 bbs.

Idk not ideal spot but I don’t think this is a bad spot if we run into qq or jj and flip for solid stack. Big stack is doing this with AK and maybe even AQ to put max pressure in a spot where they have little icm pressure and the 2-6 stacks have a lot of icm pressure.

So this was me and I can provide some more details on the hand, players and stack sizes.

5 handed.

Approximate
HJ - 30bb
CO - 70bb
BU - 150bb
SB - 42bb
Me - 30bb

HJ is an older guy who is fairly snug and opens 2.5bb. CO who I haven’t played with before but seems to be a competent and aggressive reg 3 bets to 6.5bb. BU is also an aggressive reg who I’ve played with a fair amount and 4 bets to 14bb.

I’m in the BB with AKo.

Firstly, I know if I shove I’m getting called. HJ I’m not worried about. While he has been tight, he is forced to fold basically everything given its clear button will call my shove. CO has been 3 betting frequently and is subject to the same ICM implications as the HJ. Given buttons aggression pre, I give him a range of A2s - A5s, A10s - AJs, AQ, AK and any pair 6s plus (which he has since confirmed to be accurate). Anyone less aggressive and I’m probably folding.

In regards to ICM vs other shorter stacks, SB is very splashy and VPIPing way too high, so I could fold and let him eventually/hopefully punt off. I still have chips and only 1bb invested so I could just fold. But realistically, the highest I am most likely to ladder to is 4th.

So given my hand vs the buttons perceived range, the above ICM considerations and the stack I’ll have will not only put me 2nd in chips, significantly increase my chances of multiple ladders and put me in a much better position to win the tournament.

Fold ainec

So according to my icm calculator, your current chip stack has a 30,600 value.

If CL knocks out other two players your icm value is 42,753.

If you double up from CL but both other players fold, your double up has a value of 41,200.

This looks really strong to me and I'd probably fold by default without knowledge that any of these players are notably wide here (and I think that's a safe default assumption given the stakes and live environment).

However, if you really think button is going to be cold 4-betting as wide as in the follow-up post here, then yeah, just get it in and hope for the best.

Most aggro players are at least a bit tighter vs tighter players. Is he good aggro or bad aggro? either way the 4bet from the big stack looks really strongs. The 15b size looks strong it's unnecessarily big and put that together with the tighter player opening. If CO is a bad aggro then the big stack has to worry about him committing ICM suicide making it hard to bluff and if hes a good aggro then he probably will be tighter. I'm snap folding this.

Seems like a good time to wait for a better spot. Facing 3 uncapped ranges here does not bode well for AKo and we aren't getting a good price. You have a chance to potentially ladder up this hand if big stack and one of the other players get it in this hand, and you are immediately left of the splashy fish.

All of the pay jumps look significant here. And yes you want to win it all so the possibility of doubling up is atrractive, but it seems like you may just have a better chance trying to get SB's stack.

Not sure how much consideration people give to it, but there's a good chance some of our outs are dead (particularly our Ace outs). HJ has lots of Ax as OP has mentioned. CO can have all of the Ax hands and some suited broadway combos that are Kx. If we're flipping with the BTN with QQ/JJ then we perhaps have less equity than usual. Also curious if there's any read on the OMC's full 2.5x open off a 30bb stack. Lots of Ax type hands will use the larger open size though certainly it can just be the OMC's standard sizing.

To be clear, I don't want to get in with the wrong side of a flip here with AKo, considering the ICM implications. I would only shove if you really think CO is going to show up with that wide a range of Ax hands and you expect to clear everyone else out by 5-betting. At a typical table I would just fold.

It's a very close spot IMO. I think if I am going to fold this, then the table dynamics would have to be right. (has there been a lot of 3 or 4 betting at the table? or is this the 1st cold 4 bet that you have seen?)

I am probably ripping this in 80% of the time.

My quick look at this in an ICM calculator has this being a clear fold. Best case scenario is we jam, and all fold to cutoff who calls (obviously, he is never folding here).

If we win, our equity goes to 41.1K. If we lose, we get 16.3K. If we fold and all else fold, we have 30.7K. We need to be good about 57% of the time.

It could even be better; one of the other raisers can go against the big, stack and lose. Say it's the tight player. We win 4K in EV.

The problem here is that the big stack is SO big, that even doubling through him just gets us to about a little more than 1/2 his stack.