Hey all, have 2 spots I wanna ask about. I think both are fairly simple.

H1- near money bubble of a $1700 which is biggest buyin I’ll play. I have say 16-18bb and average is around 35 bb I wanna say? I have A6dd utg at a 9 handed table. Table is new and all big stacks- some northeast crushers at my table. Is A6dd a mandatory open? Gto says it’s a fine open at that stack depth. I open to min, ep 3! And sb puts in chunky 4!. I fold. Would have turned a flush haha. Somehow AK was 3! And got 50-60 bb in against qq from sb 4! And qq held. I’m going to guess this is an ok exploit fold at aggro table but i like opening the suited A to protect my kk and aa I’m going to min open per se.

H2- I wanna say I had 30-35bb mid stages getting closer to bubble at 5k level. Weak player limps mp, I have K-10o on button and accidentally make it 12k instead of 15-17k as a misclick. Bb calls and limper. We see 8-10-10. I lead 8k into 44k. Only limper calls. Turn 7. I bet 1/3 pot of 20k when he checks and he calls to set up a pot shove. Turn is a 9. Goes xx. He shows the good ole JQo lol and we lose. Do I go chunkier on turn? Maybe to set up a smaller pot bet on river when we get clean run out?

H1 - I fold this in a $1700. No reason to believe we have a skill advantage so if it's even EV best to just let it go. Bigger tournaments in my experience always have way more 3 betting and I adjust by tightening my range especially EP.

H2 - I'd bet much bigger multiway, at least 1/3. Although if you are betting small as an exploit and they're not good players it's fine. I'd bet more like 50-60% on the turn. He might still have called if he's bad.

H1: I also will minraise open here with A6s. It will often go through because it looks like we are very strong. But as LifeNit posted it will not work sometimes as well...

H2: My flop bet size would be 12k here. HU I often cbet same size as pre-flop raise when flop range is more or less neutral.

As played on the turn I would bet 40k. Especially if there is a flush draw out there. We might have lost more though...

H1 - I use to open this a lot more. I realize now, it will usually get you into trouble. If the table is more passive, then it's fine. Also, fine if you have been tight.

H2 - I would probably go bigger on the turn. I think it's fine either way. If the player called 1/3 pot just to hit a gutshot, then I think you played it correctly.

Folding H1 vs solid table, going to get 3b a ton and when we don’t we will have to play a bunch of whiffed flops oop vs much bigger stacks.

H2 betting much bigger flop and turn.

Close to the bubble I'm folding hand 1. It's technically in a profitable opening range, but it's one of your weakest opens here and it's easy for good players to use the pressure of the bubble to 3-bet you light. Tighten up the bottom of your range in general when ICM is a factor; tighten up the bottom of your range from EP when you're at a tough table prone to 3-betting often.

Hand 2, instead of betting small to set up a pot-sized shove, take a geometric approach where you're betting the same fraction of the pot on the turn and river (or even on all three streets). And you should probably bet bigger on the turn given the strength of your hand and the draws possible, in any case. You want to get paid from worse value hands and you want to charge draws since your hand is so strong you probably have to pay them off if they get there. If you bet 1/4 pot on flop and then 2/3 pot on turn you have close to 2/3 pot on river to jam, based on your stack size estimation.

I think this is all pretty spot on. Definitely fold A6s near bubble at table of people who will engage us frequently and easy open at softer table.

Something to add with second hand, when you're setting up the river PSB shove, what hands of his are you targeting? I think people get a little too fixated on setting up pot sized river shoves in live scenarios where villains aren't calling off widely enough for their stacks when it may be more beneficial for us to focus on attacking potential parts of their range and targeting how much they'll call w said parts on different streets. I think there's more he can call with on the turn for a larger sizing, and then he feels more committed on river with those second best hands (plus all the stuff Nath said)

I agree I think I need to go larger on turn because a lot of stuff he has that is calling turn is probably going to fold to a river jam unless we get a cooler situation. I think if he has worse 10x, it’s going in earlier like flop or turn because he probably raises one of those streets.

As played, I felt I goofed bc I felt he calls .5x-1x pot bet on turn to try and realize his equity which he shouldn’t I feel if I go larger- he might even call an over pot bet on turn. The fact we prolly get a lot of folds on river when he doesn’t improve like in hand, I think we have to go larger. I doubt he turns a busted straight into a bluff on the river because it would probably have to be a donk lead- a check raise on river by villain would look strong but my hand is too strong to fold to one obviously.

I felt I missed value when he misses river and I don’t get max value out of hand. I was surprised he didn’t lead really small on river bc I feel I have to sigh cry call a 2-4bb bet.

H1- looking back yea this was a marginal open. I think it’s ok to do but probably not in that spot. I recognized 2-3 players as really good mtt players from northeast and probably should have just open folded. Lol I kinda wish I made the bad jam but it’s ok I think ripping so many bbs utg is punting with A6dd. I think with like 10-12 bb it might be ok but where I was at- would be a punt most of the time.

Per Jennifear charts A6s UTG 9 way isn't shovable till we drop to 8 BBs, which is kind of insane.

I don't know if I play this kind of situations correctly. But if I believe I can get ITM without problems even if I have to fold here I would probably open online if the table isn't very aggressive. Especially if I have played very few hands lately. But here like others wrote we have to add both the BI size and live dynamics. I guess it's not unlikely some player somehow picked up that you're probably playing on a high BI level, considering your experience and BR. Plus there's always a chance some loose player with a bigger stack will call - resulting in a squeeze play. And if no squeeze happens you will mostly be in a difficult spot OTF, not knowing if your hand is good or not.

It's difficult setting a scenario in a ICM calculator for a MTT near-but-not-yet-bubble-situation. Nevertheless I did one in HRC when you have 12 BB, the other players 9-56 BB and 3 players get paid. IT said you can shove 13,5%: 44+, A8s+, A5s-A4s, AJo+, K9s+, KQo, KJo:0.036, QTs+, JTs, T9s. So A5s should be OK due to straight possibilities, but not A6.

The calling ranges for the other players is mostly around 88+ and AJ-AQ. BB who has the second biggest stack in my scenario with 38 BB can call with 66+, A9s, AJo, KQs.

Can we expect most players would call with this in real life in this type of tournament? That would add up to a likelihood of a little bit over 40% you getting at least one caller. Against that calling range you will be a dog almost exactly 70-30. So I guess pushing here with 12bb would result in you going busto almost 3 times in 10.

H1 I have a buddy that moved to Vegas for two years to play tournaments that makes a pretty compelling argument that a6 is the worst poker hand because it costs you so much when you hit it but it's hard to fold preflop (unlike7-2). At least you were sooted. But position and bubble make it a fold for me.

H2. That's why we play poker. You played it fine, idiot got lucky.

Yea h2- I just think I should go bigger on turn for value over long run. I feel my bet sizing is way too small as with his hand- I think he’s probably calling 75%-pot bet on turn so think it’s a mistake no question. If he’s going to shut down river- just feel I got less value than I normally should if I bet in a more geometric style.

H1- yea agree it’s prolly fold based on table. I feel we weren’t close enough to bubble to take folding a real decision. I felt we would blind out if we didn’t make something happen or fold down to a really lol stack like 2-4bb to get to money. Maybe even then we don’t make money honestly bc I wanna say 20-40 people left to money (itm)

No one's suggesting you fold down to 2-4 BBs, just that you raise in later position. Later position = fewer sharks' 3 bets to deal with and fewer potential monsters behind you.

And you have 16-18BB, you're not even close to being in danger of folding your way out of the tournament.