Quote:
Originally Posted by Jkpoker10
H1- looking back yea this was a marginal open. I think it’s ok to do but probably not in that spot. I recognized 2-3 players as really good mtt players from northeast and probably should have just open folded. Lol I kinda wish I made the bad jam but it’s ok I think ripping so many bbs utg is punting with A6dd. I think with like 10-12 bb it might be ok but where I was at- would be a punt most of the time.
I don't know if I play this kind of situations correctly. But if I believe I can get ITM without problems even if I have to fold here I would probably open online if the table isn't very aggressive. Especially if I have played very few hands lately. But here like others wrote we have to add both the BI size and live dynamics. I guess it's not unlikely some player somehow picked up that you're probably playing on a high BI level, considering your experience and BR. Plus there's always a chance some loose player with a bigger stack will call - resulting in a squeeze play. And if no squeeze happens you will mostly be in a difficult spot OTF, not knowing if your hand is good or not.
It's difficult setting a scenario in a ICM calculator for a MTT near-but-not-yet-bubble-situation. Nevertheless I did one in HRC when you have 12 BB, the other players 9-56 BB and 3 players get paid. IT said you can shove 13,5%: 44+, A8s+, A5s-A4s, AJo+, K9s+, KQo, KJo:0.036, QTs+, JTs, T9s. So A5s should be OK due to straight possibilities, but not A6.
The calling ranges for the other players is mostly around 88+ and AJ-AQ. BB who has the second biggest stack in my scenario with 38 BB can call with 66+, A9s, AJo, KQs.
Can we expect most players would call with this in real life in this type of tournament? That would add up to a likelihood of a little bit over 40% you getting at least one caller. Against that calling range you will be a dog almost exactly 70-30. So I guess pushing here with 12bb would result in you going busto almost 3 times in 10.