I feel like I misplayed this hand, though I'm not exactly sure where.

$1.00 buy-in KO STT, top 3 paid, down to 5-handed.

Blinds 60/120 (ante 15).
I'm the shortest stack [barely] with 2,136 (just under 18bb), though it's a fairly level field as even the biggest stack has just 3,512 (<30bb).
Villain [BTN] has been pretty tight, though aggressive, and with a reasonable steal range; have never seen him barrel off with air (if anything, he errs toward cautious). His stack is 2,660.

Hero is in SB with QJ

Pre-Flop (pot 255):
2 folds, BTN raises to 240, Hero calls, 1 fold.

Flop (pot 615): J69
Hero checks, BTN bets 236, Hero calls.

Turn (pot 1,087): J695
Hero checks, BTN bets 768, Hero calls.

River (pot 2,623): J695K
Hero checks, BTN bets 1,401 and is all-in, Hero folds.....


....leaving myself with just 7.3bb remaining in my stack.
This hand left me with an utterly gross feeling, though I'm not sure exactly where I should have done differently. Fold the turn against tight opponent??
Or maybe c/r-shove the flop???
Thoughts? Thanks in advance...

I would just c/r the flop and prob as a jam since they would be so incentivized to call.

Im ripping 18bb pre vs a btn open from the sb here. Dont really have much of a flatting range in this spot.

As played given your reads its probably a good river fold.

Yeah, for some reason I didn't even factor just ripping pre. That's def way better.

Yeah, upon reflection I'm thinking that's the best play too.
I'm figuring out that I'm way to tight-passive in these spots.

I just ran some scenarios assuming Hero has a stack of 15bb, that BTN's open is to 2.5bb and his range is ~39-40%.

I ran it four times with villain folding 66.7% of his range to our shove, 60% of his range, 50% of his range, or only 30% of his range......it's a solid EV+ for us in all four scenarios.

The amount to which it is positive gets smaller the more often he calls. Realistically, he's probably rarely folding as often as 66.7%, except when his stack isn't much bigger than ours [and we're near the bubble].
On the flip-side, I can't see him calling much more than 70%: that's already got hands like 22, A2s, A5o, K8s, T9s, etc calling.


Bottom line: I need to be jamming A LOT wider than I have been in this spot.
Which brings me to my follow-up question: what is the rock-BOTTOM of our shoving range here?

fwiw, looking at the hypotheticals I was playing around with above, I have to get all the way down to Q8s before it's even an EV neutral play, and that's with him folding only 30% of his range to our shove (unless I'm completely botching the math).

Hands like J9o become a small EV- play (again: IF he's folding only 30% of his range). If we can reasonably expect him to fold 40%, however, even J9o is a neutral to marginally EV+ shove.

Basically, with the pot size and the 0.5bb we've already invested, this is looking like nearly any hand I might reasonably play from the SB when facing a BTN open should be jammed.

Does that sound about right?

Whoops. Just remembered that a glaring flaw in my analysis was that I completely wrote the BB out of the picture [as though he folds 100% of the time]. Bear that in mind when reading the above. I'll have to go back and re-do this work; I'm sure that makes at least the bottom end that I was calling EV neutral or marginally positive into a small negative.

Yeah, I thought you defended the BB.

Any pair, Any aces, any broadway is a good start from the sb vs a btn open with 20bb

The chart I use says to flat AA and some other marginal hands like weaker suited connectors, but not having a flat range at all is fine too.