It's the ACR OSS $8.80 25k guaranteed from yesterday. We are down from over 2,800 runners to the final three tables-- I don't remember how many are left exactly, but there are six at my table, so it must be between 17-20.

Note that the caller calls out of the SB and is the only stack that poses a danger to me.

With that in mind, how much would you bet on this turn? (And is my flop bet sizing good? 1/4 pot is usually standard for me on paired boards, but maybe with how low it is I can get away with bigger and still get called by pairs or floats, since I shouldn't hit this very often raising UTG/6?)

Yatahay Network - 125000/250000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 46.72 BB
MP: 24.63 BB
CO: 19.83 BB
BTN: 9 BB
SB: 63.11 BB
BB: 28.01 BB

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has A 4

Hero raises to 2.1 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.6 BB, fold

Flop: (5.8 BB, 2 players) 4 8 4
SB checks, Hero bets 1.45 BB, SB calls 1.45 BB

Turn: (8.7 BB, 2 players) J
SB checks, Hero...

This is actually a flop that you can bet larger on bc the sb should not have many 4x in his range (A4s just like we do). You have the overall range advantage and a massive nut advantage with our overpairs. If it was a bb defend, then villain has a lot more 4x and we should use a small sizing.

We have a lot more trash than villain so we cant range bet this board but half pot at a fairly high frequency will be pretty good. Then just half pot on most turns and rivers will get the job done.


As played, after you range bet the flop for a small size you obv are going to want to polarize on the turn and size up. Anywhere from 70% to full pot

^^^ +1 Good analysis. I like full pot here as the turn did bring a BD flush draw.

I typically bet my pre-flop raise size on this type of flop. Though HU against a SB you can bet more as noted above.

I would bet about 6 bb's on the turn as played. Its a sizing I will always use (~70%) when I bet the turn whether its a value bet or bluff. That way nobody knows what it is. Because I get a lot of folds on the turn I have picked up the number of times I am bluffing/semi-bluffing.

I am never folding to a c/r because we are ahead of virtually all 4Xs. SB can have 88 but that's about all we are behind.

Results:

Being 46bbs effective changes a lot here imo. I think you make more money from pp's, 8x, and his good air on the flop with a large cbet. I think his backdoors, gutshots and 4x probably c/r more vs like a 1/3 cbet and float more often vs the 1/4 cbet. When he calls the flop cbet of 1/4 though, we kinda let his meh draws off the hook as he can call for a cheap turn card and then c/f them vs your large turn bet. I think you make more money vs his draws because they are only calling your large turn bet when they bink or maybe when they pick up a combo draw, but even then they can just fold.

Against a shorter stack (like ~20 bbs or less maybe), I think the 1/4 cbet is better than it is vs. the big stack. You can even sometimes bet small-medium on the turn and you might get him to spazz on the turn or river or he might just be mega sticky with one pair hands at that stack depth.

grats on the score old boy

Betting bigger will polarize your range but you don't get a lot of thin calls that way either, I'd fire in 5.5BB and like Rick said almost never fold to a c/r, if he has 88 so be it.

I like the flop sizing bet too, roughly around 30% of the pot which puts just enough pressure on such a dry board.

Pot is too large except unless you have air.

Playing a strat of only air for large sizing and only, oh I guess 99+ for moderate sizing is differentiated and gives you a clearer path to exploit--people fold 55-77 too readily vs large sizing

I think I like going 30-35% on flop with a cbet as we have many chips to get in the middle. I’m
Fine with your sizing though bc it keeps in a lot of trashier hands you want to allow to see a turn. I feel villian shouldn’t have 56/ 67 too often unless suited in the spot as they “should” not be calling 56o or 67o from the sb in this spot


Standard- I would open to 2bb and not 2.1- I know it’s not much but I don’t see the difference between 2 and 2.1. You just lose less if you get 3bet and can’t call a 3!.


I think I would go like this with sizing- bet 1.9bb into 5.8. / turn- 40-60% of 9.6/ river- meh I would prolly go for max value so 60-100% of pot. If you want to really go for it/ bet 150-200% of pot but unlikely to get a call unless in cooler scenarios.

I’m not a fan of going small on flop and betting pot on turn unless a scare card comes up somewhat that opens up equity for villian (potentially). I would rather let them see a river and go big and hope for a hero call on the river. When you go super big on turn, it just looks like the river is going to be an AI all the time so a villian can help that reason that they shouldn’t call as they are going to be facing a tough decision on the river. This hand- I see nothing really wrong. I just wouldn’t got full pot on turn but it’s probably good if you run into their strong hands- I assume villian didn’t have much so you were kinda in a spot where you are targeting their top range with bet. Sizing probably on this turn isn’t going to mean much if they have air portion of range.

Nice run! Top 3 in a huge field mtt on acr is great!