Link to hand

https://play.americascardroom.eu/onl...a77d16df199da9

Villians stats are very aggressive 28/20

Just wanted thoughts is this an obvious jam or are we happy to take the 16 BBs in a better spot?

Easy jam.

You can make a case for flatting KQs, but folding to co open is out of the question. If we're 20-25bb, flat pre, and proceed. If we flat, and one of the blinds jam or 3b, we can fold.


But, folding is a bit too weak. The spot you got is/will be one of the best spots when 70bb co stack opens. He should be opening pretty wide from that position and especially his stack size.

Thats exactly what went through my mind, I guess because it was alittle higher buy-in then I normally play I was determined to get ITM (snuck in for a mincash btw). Thats a lesson in scared money don't make money I guess.

Good luck on the felt everyone

Exactly how close we are to the money matters here. If its like 70 left, 40 pay, you MUST push, as you will have to take some risky spots later on and this is almost as good of a spot as you are going to get.

If its 48 left, 40 pay, I probably flat.

If its 42 left, 40 pay, it is a fold, as you simply fold into the money w/o blinding down too much.

If we are stone bubble you can argue for a fold here. Depends how big field is relative to bubble because ICM wise it can be ok to be nitty since with our stack we will cash. Otherwise this is always a shove in my book. I am not a fan of flatting on a 16bb stack with this hand especially if opener is aggro. This is really strong and a great hand to reshove. Also consider we have stacks behind that can squeeze and we even end up folding the best hand sometimes. You can argue for flatting JTs or QTs type hands maybe even KJs and then AA I would flat here as a trap maybe KK and hope for a squeeze. With KQs we can end up losing half of our stack then having to fold and it cripples us.

lol mtt regs. Literally 2005 poker. You waiting for aces or something?

Your totally right, I love this forum always get humbled with a nice side of shade while your learn.

Perfect stack size to jam because we have Fold Equity against marginal/semi-decent hands and we are not risking too much to win 4.7 bb's.

There are some hands that we are behind that will likely fold (many Ax type of hands).

We are also going to flip a lot against PP's. But if its either of the blinds that has like 22-99 they are likely going to fold. And they might fold TT and even JJ.

Every now and then we are going to be dominated by AK/AQ/QQ and wish we had folded (but we have blockers against these hands so reduced chances).

We need to chip up. When we steal the blinds we only gain 2.5 bb's. If we do that once an orbit we stay even. Here we gain an extra 2.2 bb's if he folds.

Even if he calls with hands like AJ/AT we are still in it (like 40%). Sometimes a villain will fold these hands (though probably not this villain with this stack).

Its only AA/KK that crushes us and we have blockers against KK.

Really easy jam vs. an aggressive player in CO who has everyone yet to act covered, given stack sizes. And including the bubble, if he's any good his opening range here will be massive.

At what stack size does this become not a jam, but a 3bet or call?

I would think at 20-25bb+ the jam becomes less optimal? Is flatting at 20bb+ a leak?

20 is fine to jam still given antes and KQs may get Ax to fold. 25 I'm mixing more and 30-35 is more comfortable 3b/x stack imo. I wouldn't say flatting is a leak tho.

Though I don't agree with everything he said, I think AALegend was on to a very important specific that no one else seems to be acknowledging: just how close to the bubble are we?

If it's top 40 paid, and we're literally ON the bubble [like 41, or even 42 remaining], I think fold is fine. Hero likely only has 3-4 hands to wait to be in the money in that circumstance.

Ditto if this is a huge tournament with something like top 190 paid and 200 remaining.


But if it's significantly further from the bubble than that, don't think you can fold.

However, I think some posters are over-estimating how much fold equity hero would have (when they're talking about how AT/AJ "maybe" call.......I don't think those are "maybes"; I think villain ALWAYS calls with those).

Sure his opening range is wide, and that's going to influence how wide Hero wants to shove here........but I'd assume he recognizes Hero is thinking along these lines, and thus he'll adjust his call-range accordingly.
And let's not overlook he'll be getting just about 3:2 from the pot, and can easily withstand losing.

imo, he's ALWAYS calling with AT+ (maybe even gambles with one or two smaller suited aces), KQs, pp's 55 and higher (maybe even 44); +/- one or two other hands inconsistently??....

In short, even if his opening range is quite wide (like 35% of all holdings), I'd wager he's calling with about 40% of that opening range......and Hero is roughly a 42.5:57.5 underdog to the range that calls.


Assuming I'm even close in my reasoning here, this means shoving will succeed in getting Hero busted from the tournament ~23% of the time.

So while it's easily an EV+ move in terms of chips, I don't think that's a gamble worth taking if Hero can wait literally just 2-5 hands [might not even have to go thru the blinds again] to be in the money.

Another thing to consider imo is what kind of 28/20 villain is.

If it's a good LAG bullying the bubble with a big stack --> easy reshove when opened from the CO

If it's a bad LAG overplaying any decent hand --> not so much FE once V got involved, so I often adjust by playing mainly first in unless my hand crushes his range.

(Although I agree the main thing to consider is whether we are 3 hands from ITM or 2 orbits from it)

Personally I've never been a big fan of tightening up too much on the bubble-- certainly you might pass on some really marginal spots, but I don't think this is marginal. I think the large majority of the time you get a fold and add more than 25% to your stack.

I think his opening range is closer to 90% than 35%. At least if he's good-aggressive. The stacks are perfect for it; the two blinds have too much to really re-shove on the bubble and should be safe to enter the money, but not really enough to flat-call on the bubble and try to play out the hand.