Live pko 9 handed, not close to the money

Folds to hj whose a passive player raises to 2.7bb
Cutoff fish calls

Im in sb with 43bbs (im the effective stack) and raise to 12.7bbs with KdKs

Hj tank calls
Cutoff folds

Flop AdTd4c (30.1bbs)

I have about 30.3bbs left (i also have a pko of 0.9 buyin, so he would pocket 0.45buyin if he stacks me)

Check or bet small or shove??

I guess given player description I'd fire like 20% and see what he does. Probably just let it go to any aggression given his description. If you think he might be in here with a middling Ax that would fold to further aggression (since you can rep AK), you can try firing off again if he calls. You can probably fire again on a diamond although I'm not sure what sizing is correct (I guess a shove if you think he'll fold an ace) and if it's not all-in then check/call might be better.

I could see an argument for a check if you think he only bets Ax or better (i.e. TT) and checks down everything else, and that might be the case, but you have to be pretty confident in your powers of prediction. If you do check and he checks back I bet small on most turns. Maybe check a ten, and a queen or jack sometimes.

Given his passivity, raise size, and the tank call, I'm thinking he's on a fairly tight range of pairs and some big aces (not sure how wide he calls those), maybe some suited broadways (although exactly QdJd is really the only flush draw he'll have). If he has QQ/JJ he might call flop but probably try to get to showdown after that. I would not expect him to get aggressive with draws given your description of him, and he should have very few here as played anyway. I really wouldn't be surprised if his range is like 88+ AQ+.

Didn't run the spot or anything, these are just thoughts off the top of my head.

Normally I bet this flop but not small. But a normal bet size for me would force me to shove...

I guess I would either bet smallish or check, but because we have BDFD I think I bet. My sizing would be 10bb because like in all sales a bet of 9bb or less feels much smaller than 10bb.

If the turn is a Diamond, J, Q, K I jam to make it look like we hit 2 pair or a flush. Otherwise I check fold against this passive guy.

edit; I actually just changed my mind. I think I check this flop to see if Villain bets. Because he is passive I don't think he bets a PP here. Only an A or a set. I would mostly fold here unless the bet is freakishly small.

Thank you for the responses, yeah i think checking vs passive opponent and small range bet vs tougher opponents is the way to go here.

Off the top of my head I think I'd be more inclined to check/call KK with no diamond, and I think it's because you can fire again on a turn diamond with the Kd and not having the Kd puts more potential flush draws in villain's range. I'm not sure that's right though.

I like a small bet here. A check looks exactly like what we have (not that we’d never check Ax), so Villain will play perfectly against it, even if by accident. I’d bet about 6BB. No need to go bigger.

You can go a little smaller pre, but that's a quibble. As played I assume is a pure range bet for 20-25%, if we get jammed by this particular villain it's a pretty clear fold. Against good players it probably is close, but you can't go that wrong by folding live if we think villains are going to underbluff. We should have enough diamond draws and Ax in range that we really don't need to call all that wide. Probably your worst call is something like KT or QT with backdoors.

If villain calls, we probably bet small again on turn against most players.

I would check the turn unless a K, Q, J, or Diamond, and maybe an A comes because it improves our outs or actual hand (and in the case of an A our pseudo hand). If a K comes I would shove on the turn.

Like the 3b sizing because I'm assuming he'll get sticky with the 2.7x sizing and if he's truly more passive than average he'll have more combos that he'll just assess as being "strong" without taking context into account (Like in practice I think vs some people even QQ, AKo can fold vs your 3b), he'll not adjust his folding range properly, and continue too wide.

Then go tiny on the flop.

Either check most/all turns unless you think he never folds QQ or JJ then go tiny again. Checking to xf most times especially if no diamond peels (blocking KdXd can't be good to start xc).


I didn't take any bounty considerations into account.

Yeah, theory is going to dictate betting small again on most disconnected cards (something like the 8h). When we would be betting bigger in any fashion, we mostly if not always check. However against most player types who are never going to be raise with anything worse than A and won't bluff too often, we can get away with a small turn bet to target Tx, JJ-QQ.

V doesn’t have much Ax as described does he?

I’m probably checking and expect him to to check back a bunch and bluff some. Would probably check most turns too and try get value from whatever on river.

Just me obv.

Vs wider spewtard I’m probably just leading small and folding to spaz.

Preflop
I think, this 3-bet is to large given the short stack sizes. When you create an SPR of only 1, then it would typically have been better to jam preflop, but you are a bit to deep for that. So I probably size down here to maybe 10-11BB. Or you could even just call and have a really strong hand in your calling range, that you are happy to stack off on clean boards.


Flop
Super awkward situation, and your hand definitely play better as a pull than a push. Even if you bet small here, then what is the plan on the turn, if he call, other than to hit a set? If you bet any size here, you are only happy, if he fold, which mean, you are bluffing with KK. So I check and evaluate. Its live poker, so use your reads on the guy.