Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 12,500/25,000 (2,500 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG (Hero): 245,212 (10 bb)
UTG+1: 292,036 (12 bb)
MP: 85,340 (3 bb)
MP+1: 133,354 (5 bb)
CO: 244,868 (10 bb)
BU: 450,734 (18 bb)
SB: 70,636 (3 bb)
BB: 102,820 (4 bb)

Pre-Flop: (57,500) Hero is UTG with K♥ K♣
Hero raises to 242,712 (all-in), 2 players fold, MP+1 calls 130,854 (all-in), CO calls 242,368 (all-in), 3 players fold

Flop: (673,090) Q♠ Q♦ 8♠ (3 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: (673,090) 3♥ (3 players, 3 all-in)

River: (673,090) 9♠ (3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: 673,090

Showdown:
UTG (Hero) shows K♥ K♣ (two pair, Kings and Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 17%, Flop: 9%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

MP+1 shows J♣ J♥ (two pair, Queens and Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 16%, Flop: 10%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

CO shows A♣ A♥ (two pair, Aces and Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 67%, Flop: 82%, Turn: 90%, River: 100%)

CO wins 673,090


We're on the bubble of a satellite that awards 5 tickets worth $33 each.

I only just doubled up in the hand before by sucking out 88 vs AA so I may have been a tad euphoric and certainly didn't consider all the options.

Is this a mandatory jam?

The big stack plays super loose and has doubled up two short stacks by making lol calls so I guess it's in my best interest to stop him from doing that again.

Then again, my seat is basically safe if I just fold every hand from here on.

Once I do jam, am I correct in assuming that CO has to fold every hand including Aces? I only did some quick ICM math and I think he needs 80% equity just to break even so even 22 vs AA barely makes him any money and just adds tons of variance. What's more, one short stack is all-in already and the others will probably bust sooner or later.

There are 8 players and 5 seats? It is not a bubble?

If it is not a bubble shoving is fine your seat is still not secure.
If it is a bubble fold your KK. You are still risking quite a lot of chance shoving over 3 people who can eliminate you.

I think jam and raise are probably both pretty close in terms of EV when you take ICM into account.

If you do raise, you can probably fold to both the MP or CO shove so raise-folding might make the most sense, especially if we think the players yet to act are at least somewhat ICM-savvy.

Also, when you jam the CO can only call off with AA due to risk premium. The HJ has a little more room to operate, but still probably folds JJ there.

This is why I hate satellites.

Really I would probably jam with 10 blinds. It is so unlikely that either of the big stacks would call. They would fold AQ/AK all the time.

And yet it reminds me of the time (not a satellite) I jammed with QQ in the SB with like 60 blinds after a smallish stack raised from the CO. And the BB with a bigger stack woke up with KK and called. I try to avoid these situations near the money at this point.

I hate folding preflop. I hate a min raise pre flop. And now I hate shoving pre-flop. I would be OK with it if only the shorter stacks were remaining to act. Because there are 3 guys with under 4 bb's it is probably worth folding. But I also remember a tourney where I kept folding decent hands while on the money bubble and 7 different guys went all in with worse hands than their callers and won each long shot. Finally I went all in with AK and lost to A2 and was knocked out.

I guess a min raise and a fold to a shove by a bigger or equal stack would be best here. Down to 8 blinds would still be double the three min stacks. And we could get a chance to take out a short stack.

The more I play them, the less I like them

On a more serious note, I think they are fairly beatable but some of the stuff you have to do is just so counterintuitive to me so I tend to f*** up quite a bit.

I think everyone played this "correctly." Stack sizes are all so close and no one is guaranteed a spot yet. It's not like you and CO have 40BB stacks and everyone else is sub 10BB. There is no way you are raise/folding KK. MP has a chance to double up and secure a seat.

I have open folded KK on the stone bubble of a satty because the bb had me covered but I was actually guaranteed a seat by folding. 28 left, 27 seats with an average stack.


This is different. 8 left with 5 seats is not the bubble. And if a shorty doubles up they have roughly an average stack. An utg shove is going to be very tight into the field (JJ+, AK at most), but KK is too strong. You arent guaranteed to fold into the money so you still need to find some spots to win the blinds.

Ok, so I just put the hand into Holdem Resources Calculator.

I could actually jam pretty wide in theory given that none of the big stacks should risk anything at this point so jamming KK is fine unless you know that people will call wide.

According to HRC, CO has literally zero (as in 0%) calls in this spot.

Even MP+1 would have to fold his Jacks since he can only call KK+.

I guess this just confirms the general point that you can jam pretty wide in some spots but you should avoid calling almost all of the time.

Welcome to the wonderful world of Satellites lol.