Local tournament, 30k gtd from season qualifiers, ~500 free entrees
200/400 BB ante 400
I have 25k, they only saw 2 hands from me, one winner 2pair and one losing str vs higher str. took down a few pots w/o showdown.
table is pretty standard limp, bets pair, some showdowns with 2pairs vs top pairs and sets.
I 3bet a few spots but folded when AK didnt connect and overpair on JJ, vs 2-3 players.
UTG folds, Laggish (caught bluffing a couple of times) raise 800 UTG2, I'm in LJ with KJo makes it 2K (i want to iso IP him), HJ folds, CO lady taggish calls, all folds.
flop 567r pot ~6600 UTG2 checks, I bet 3k (plan is to take down the pot repping overpairs), CO calls (ok Im done), UTG2 folds
turn K pot ~12600, I think I beat most of his pairs now and a good card to pretend to be bluffing but betting for value. I bet 7K, CO calls. At his point I'm loving the spot, planning to shove most rivers.
fold pre
check flop, evaluate if you're continuing based on sizing CO bets
turn: as played from flop bet, size down turn to 1/3 pot
river: as played from turn, bet/fold 1/4 pot
Probably close pre, we could do a tiny bit of 3-betting with his hand especially if we think UTG is going to be straightforward post. Probably rather just 3-bet AJo/KQo pure than trying to slide this into our range.
On flop I think we mostly check, can bet small (like 20%) to clean up some Ax w/o backdoor draws and maybe fold out hands like 22 or 33.
I'm a little conflicted on the turn, I can get behind half pot or so mostly because we have a vulnerable hand and a lot of CO's range is going to either have a pair or a wrap around the 567. If we think those hands can never fold to a second barrel, then I don't hate the 7k bet. If we think those hands start to fold, then I'd go smaller.
As played on the river, all the options feel bad. Checking opens ourselves to getting bluffed, but if this is a TAG who probably won't find the bluffs on the river I don't mind just checking here. Block betting isn't unreasonable, but there are a few two pair hands that opened up with the A on the river, and a TAG may also play more passively with two pair than we'd think. A TAG may also start folding out stuff like 99 on the river to a block when the A hits. (remember this is a 3-bet cold call so in theory this shouldn't be a really wide range at all)
I think your bet sizing preflop is bad, you want to get this player to fold preflop. You are offering too good price for the player with the hand that you have. There are times for this bet sizing, but it makes the hand harder to play post flop (because the villain will be wider), IMO. I get your reasoning, but I honestly think you will get a lot more folds, which is what we want, by making it 2.4K
I think you played the hand fine up until the river.
I think on the river you have to check call. You aren't going to get by a hand like TT-88 on this river. What reasonable Ace could the other player have? A7s? If the other player has a set, then so be it.
I agree with PhatPots that the bet sizing pre-flop has to be 3x (2400). For me all 3 bets are 3x + 1x for every original caller of the raise + 1x (or close to it) if we are in SB or BB OOP to original raiser. If you make it less than 3x the problem is that it makes calling the 3-bet happen far more often. The advantage of a 3-bet in this case is threefold, to gain positional advantage (i.e. to buy the BTN), to eliminate other callers, and to sometimes win the hand outright without having to see a flop.
The whole point of 3-betting with a hand like KJ is to balance your 3-betting range so I have no problem with it. I think you have to act like it is a much stronger hand as you did on the flop and turn (though my bet sizing on the flop would probably have been 2000 as played or 2400 if that had been the original preflop raise size and my bet sizing on the turn would also have been 33% pot so we aren't betting over 33% effective stack). There are times when I personally would have checked the flop and folded to a bet because of the CO call which favors hands that the CO likely has like JJ/TT. In this particular case because the 3-bet was so low it is possible that CO also has 55-77 but less likely. And of course because the cbet was so low hands like 88-TT are now more likely especially because we block JJ.
edit: The river is a problem because we have like half pot left. Not sure if we can get hands like A5s-A7s to fold if we shove and those hands will occur infrequently. I guess I lean towards a check and see what CO does. I doubt CO would have called preflop with hands like 98s or 76s/65s/75s. But 55-77 are possibilities. I guess CO could also have AK on occasion (but we do block it). Tough spot. Maybe CO would bluff with 44 or 88/99 here because if we check we likely don't have AK. I don't think CO would bluff with TT-QQ though. I also don't think CO would call a shove (or any bet really) with hands like 44/88-99 or even TT or JJ.
I'm not sure about some of these ranges some of you think a TAGish lady is cold calling a 3-bet with. And honestly I'm more likely to check-fold this flop if she bets after that cold call.
Agreed that flop/turn bet sizes should be smaller.
Having gotten here, I kinda hate this spot because I feel like the player described is rarely bluffing here (and there aren't many bluffs to get here with unless they turn 88/99 into a bluff), but I also don't know that you're getting called by anything worse. Maybe you block bet and pray that 88-QQ finds a call. I don't think the ace matters too much since I don't think you're getting called cold on a 3-bet pre by A5s-A7s, and this flop seems really bad to float 3-way with AK.
It's tough because I don't think you can really get value from anything at this point, and I also don't think villain has many if any bluffs, which really sucks given the remaining stack-to-pot ratio. I'm not really sure about my answer at all, and it's largely based on my best guess at CO's range having gotten to this point.
3bet more pre- making it 2k is a huge leak. Not sure I wanna throw KJo into a 3! Range here unless we know ep opener is super wide and likely to fold pre. Making it 2k doesn’t help your ability to get opponent to fold. I would just x flop if we see it multi way. As played I might check turn to get some light river calls from villian. What is personal
Calling that you beat on turn honestly? A lot of hands are folding we crush if we bet bet flop and turn.
I would fold pre and not spew chips. Maybe KJ suited could be a 3! But idk about kjo. As played you are in trouble when cu calls i feel. No reason to take high variance lines here in spots where we should preserve chips. I would be more a fan of the 3! If villian was opening from mid to late and we correctly size it.
