Winamax - 3000/6000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 7 players


BTN: 18.9 BB
SB: 85.47 BB
BB: 16.43 BB
Hero (UTG): 27.23 BB
UTG+1: 32.15 BB
MP: 46.3 BB
CO: 17.69 BB

7 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.32 BB) Hero has T J

Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, MP calls 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (7.32 BB, 3 players) Q 3 8
BB checks, Hero checks, MP bets 2.41 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.41 BB

Turn: (12.15 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, MP bets 9.59 BB Hero ?

Well I plugged both ranges in Equilab, and it's 46/54 in favor of MP's calling range on this flop

UTG : 55+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,A8o+,KTo +,QTo+
MP : 99-66,AQs-A8s,A5s,KJs-KTs,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AQo-AJo,KQo

When the 9 of spade comes on the turn, equity is still favoring MP. But if plug in my exact hand, JT both heart, then I have almost an 80% advantage. Is it good enough to raise ? Or should one plays by the "range vs range token" and not by the "my hand vs villain range token" ? Plus, could villain have anything less than a flush ? I guess a max flush draw is a believable option. Should I raise all-in in the end ? Is donk-betting on the turn a thing here ?

I analyzed your hand in GTO Wizard. I'm pretending that BB folded preflop, so this analysis will be slightly off, but should still give you an idea of the spot.

So I think HJ made a sizing mistake on the turn. Their large cbet gives you a great price on a shove, and might not be ideal on this wet runout. The solver prefers a smaller bet size in thit spot:



Facing the turn bet, JT prefers to shove. We can see that hands like sets and two pair are also shoving. The effective stack is low enough that these strong hands won't give up. I should note that JT mixes raises against all bet sizes.



You still get called by a number of worse hands after raising. The raise is small enough that HJ is pot committed with all of their flushdraws, and most of their top pair+.

Thanks! That was oddly my feeling on the spot. Seconds afterwards. So it will be for next time.

I like a shove here too. I definitely think you are still getting called by hands that you are ahead of (e.g. AsQ). Not a fist pump shove mine you, but I’m shoving there. And I think you get calls from worse hands and make this play whether considering your range of hands that take this line, or this specific hand.

I'd just get it in, you have a straight and not a lot of chips. Villain could certainly have worse than a flush.

Are people really calling pre with K6s and Q8s in spots like these?

And yes, I think once you get to the later streets and you're this short SPR-wise, you should be playing your hand for its most value instead of worrying about a theoretical range you might have. And even thinking in terms of range, what hands would you check/call this turn with, realistically?