Yeah, exactly. I see a lot of certainty this is a strong hand, but it could just as easily be someone who's aware of the stacks behind him and wants to be able to play a flop but knows he can't call a 3-bet shove if he raises.

Both blinds have 3-bet shoving stacks, although we don't know from OP what the BT and CO stacks are. Maybe he knows how active he's been and is worried he'll get shoved on light.

Anyway, I probably just raise/call JJ here and don't feel too bad about it if I'm wrong. Sometimes players like this will limp/jam smaller pocket pairs, because obviously you must be stealing vs. his limp and it's hard to get dealt a pair so he'll try to force you to decide whether to call off on a flip.

Just a couple of things, please, love some feedback.

If you raise 3.5 and HJ and SB probably calls POT - 11bbs and you have 22bbs.

Considering HJ has 100bbs, a likely scenario is cbet and HJ calls, SB folds and suddenly the pot is 17bbs and you have18bbs

What do you do on the turn and the river? Obviously depends on the cards but there is some real pressure, especially with the stage of the tournie

Is that thinking too weak?

Yeah, I like raise fairly small and fold. You lose less folding to a 3! and you keep weaker limping hands in. With reads that he may 3! a lot without a higher pp, then check or raise/gii are possible.

Hi OP

There are too many possible trees to cover, but we’re going to mix some small and larger cbets based on texture, and there’s a good chance the raise will iso

5 hours live is probably ~100 hands. In the grand scheme of things that's not a huge sample size. And it also implies that every hand was seen and there's no chance a limp or two was missed.

Yeah I pay attention every hand. And probably closer to 140 hands. This was the only time he limped. Even at 140 hands if your premise is that he has some limps I'd say the chance that your assumption is correct is a lot lower than the other assumption that he only has a select few.

He was playing about 2 hands per orbit.

Agree with this. I think jamming, you are only called by super strong hands that are limping oddly. I would just raise to like 4.5-5.5x and hope to get the sb to fold. I think you lose a ton of value here jamming. This is a great spot we can stack off when we see low boards.

Hoping to make it 5x. Only limper calls. Then we can easily make a pot we can jam turn on