we're all itm.. i'm about 5th in chips. villain has me just barely covered. in a $500 live if that matters, 75 left.
10000/5000 blinds, have ~800k (80bb)

in BB AhQd. CO (30bb) opens 20k/2bb and villain (about 85bb stack) flats in SB- noticed the villain has been defending like, a wicked % of his small blinds- as if he's defending the BB.

i kick it up to 81k (8.1bb). CO folds and SB is ready to fold but I effectively talked him into calling (I talk a lot). he acquiesces.

board QJ9 two clubs one spade iirc. he checks. i bet out 69k (6.9bb) (lol) (meme amount but it's good sizing here anyways)

homie check raises the ****ing **** out of me for 350k. i flat.

turn is 7c. he jams.

thinking- don't see how often he has a flush here, 9s and jacks 3b pre, 7s doesn't exist here... settle that he must have some nut flush blocker and call.

irrespective way too much money in the pot here for me to fold any turn- i should probably just jam flop anyways facing xr in this spot (?)

oops little ******ed boy cant fold top pair

flips over QJo and he holds.

probably should be hero folding live or at least checking flop back but what do you guys think. deff not a cooler

Definitely not a cooler and folding flop is reasonable/justifiable. Was this in Philly?

And mostly I'd make it 30k on the flop.

Shipping pre knowing that SB basically never calls and CO likely overfolds is also kinda sexy.

I'd probably go a little larger pre. I don't think we can ship pre being 80bb deep with CO.

I am in the 'wait for a better spot camp' on the flop. Such and under-bluffed spot. I'd rather continue with KQ blocking straights and having more outs. But even then, I probably just fold to this LOL sizing. It's so strong, esp with someone still left to act.

This is a cooler. Can prolly exploit fold flop/turn though against certain villians in live game. So
Onto hand…. Idk dude make it more than 81k. You can prolly make it 90-100k as an exploit and go big with a massive range advantage. 81 is too small if you ask me when you and sb are hella deep- we are calling a 30bb shove here so why not just go big (only way we fold is if co jams 30bb and sb rips over him).

I consider this kinda a cooler. What spr is 3.5 post? I might honestly just muck turn and sigh bc we beat nothing but a pure bluff which live villians don’t have here often. I like the call of the flop bet and not a rip- if you rip villian only calls with better hands.

I consider this spot kinda a cooler but you should prolly fold turn. Idk this spot- kinda sucks bc if flop is say Q73, you prolly are getting 2-3 streets of value. Just bad luck to run into 2 pair here. Think finding fold on turn needs to be done. Also sizing pre needs to be bigger. If folks are going to say set mine or call with bad hands- let them pay too much so when we have to fold bc we don’t smash a flop or turn- we make chips long run against their weak range.

Agree with Persian- shipping pre is comically bad. It’s funny when we have to run a flop against 10-10 or JJ against a weak live player that isn’t 3 betting correctly sb vs cu. If we have to flip for 80bb and run into 10-10,JJ, maybe a poorly player AK. I just think there is way more value 3betting to a fairly big size. Sb called with QJo lolz. Marking it 4.5-5x the open is printing chips long run if folks are calling off QJo oop.

Yes was in Philly. Think I should x back on flop on this type of board and go for pot control lowkey.

Based on how much I had left and considering how much was in the pot I don't think I can ever fold turn- which is why I'm open to considerations on shoving on flop.

I agree with the sizing idea- 81k was prob not optimal sizing, I think I should go for larger squeeze sizing esp deep- prob like 105k something like that, true 5x.

I ran it in gtow crudely and facing xr of that size it prefers a shove but thinly vs flatting. Like 60 to 40%

I like the idea of a shove there too- this deep a balanced villain could xr giant with some club draws and I can see some villains folding two pair and donkey ass sets and maybe aq facing a shove on this wet ass board

Yeah folding is a good exploitative fold and when I'm top 5 in chips going up against someone deeper I should just take the L and wait for a better spot to get money in instead of tptk on this type of flop. Dunno how often live villains have this type of sicko bluff in a $500 tournament lol

Makes me think about wanting to check raise this texture a little more often tbh

Hey man hit me up next time you make the trip down. I live 20mins east and I go to Philly for MTTs a lot.

word up i think i might run it again may 3rd depending on when i leave florida during wpt

Pre is fine, maybe 9-9.5bb is better but 8bb certainly reasonable.

High frequency check back on flop. That board just absolutely smashes the SB’s calling range to the point where the SB should be leading that a fair amount. Because of that, I’d be very cautious about playing this hand in a way that gets us into a big pot.

As played we probably have to call the flop check raise, but with no club in our hand it’s just an annoying but straightforward fold on the turn to the jam.

agreed w/ the high frequency of check backs, think i should be happy to getting a cheap showdown w/this texture, not really sure if i fully agree w/ the sb calling range for the amount of money in- i suppose making it 10b pre eliminates this

CO is 30BB deep. SB is the other one 80BB deep, but given description and the lack of a 3-bet in the first place we should basically never expect him to have a better hand here.

I kinda like jam the more I think about it, but it's not strictly necessary-- I would definitely make it bigger pre-though. This flop is a tricky one-- I think I agree that it hits the SB too hard for us to want to be piling in money here. Check is probably correct. If I bet I bet smaller-- depending on what I think of villain I might just fold to the check-raise at that absolutely massive size.

Before you get that hearty laugh in, I'd suggest you do some work on squeezing ranges in these spots. Even if CO has 50bb we'd unexploitably get ships.

There are no ships this deep ITM with ICM.

After your 3b and call the SPR is less than 4:1. With SPRs that low you stacking off with top/top is standard, unless opponent is a nit.

ICM is not very relevant here and pure chip EV there are a lot of ships

My other thought on this hand is you talking him into a preflop call. Sure AQ is a value 3bet, but I would be more than happy to just take it down there. If they want to fold, let him fold. If anything, this was your biggest error in the hand.

ICM is very relevant here. What are you talking about? Why would all of the solvers that are run ITM have changes to the ranges if it were not relevant?

payjumps are tiny and c'mon man no solvers are computing 75-man ICM $EV values the game trees are way too large for that. You'd have to simulate the event 75*74*...3*2*1 times to do that

ICM is basically negligible here and even if it's not, there is no way in practice to get an ICM-influenced answer

This is a 46 effective sim run ITM



And this one is run at 50 effective cEV

and like, SPR of 4 is massive and gives a TON of room to fold top pair with no relevant blockers on [QJ9]

assuming this is run with Monker, the best you're getting is a solution with however many players are dealt in the hand; that's not at all relevant comparing 8-handed ICM with 75-man ICM (which is negligible)

PIO only allows ICM for up to 18 players

It's a world of difference

Dude, I just can't take you serious when you say there is no ICM here. Yes, we don't have the very exact spot. But if you look at enough of them, you will see patterns that are consistent that we can try to learn and copy. Ignoring ICM is just lazy here.

and who said anything about playing equilibrium anyway, ICM-influenced or not?

do some node locking with that ICM solution assuming people overfold vs ships and watch what happens...