We are at a final table with 8 players remaining, ITM, in a field of ~50 players with add-ons and some rebuys. $2600 for first, $1700 for second, $440 for 8th.
Blind level is $20,000/40,000 with 40,000 BB Ante.
We have ~800,000, and are the second biggest stack, slightly covered by another opponent with ~870,000. One stack is ~600,000, all others are ~10BB or less.
We are in the CO, 8handed. UTG jams for $160k (4BB), UTG+1 folds, Chip leader (870k) in MP asks for a count, appears to have a legitimate decision, tanks for a bit, looks uncomfortable, and then re-jams 870k (22BB).
~600k stack folds, and action is on me. We look down at 10-10. I call. All remaining players fold.
Both the UTG player and Chip-leader turn over A-Jo. I lose the run-out, and bust 8th.
Aside from being results oriented, is this a clear fold given the ICM situation with so many short stacks?
At the time I felt that I was clearly ahead of the CL's range, and saw it as a good opportunity to win the overwhelming chip lead, almost guaranteeing I win the tournament (50% of chips in play, massively covering all remaining players). However, risking finishing 8th when I am 2nd in chips is clearly not ideal. Is it ICM suicide to call off against the chip leader in this spot, given that I am flipping a decent amount of the time? Let me know if I failed to provide any other necessary info to calculate whether this was correct or not.
If we weren't ITM or near the bubble I think this is a tough marginal spot. I am now leaning towards calling in turboesque tournaments (tournaments where levels are <30 minutes and it goes 1000/2000 to 1500/3000 to 2000/4000). I have a feeling at like the WSOP main event I would more likely fold unless the 3-bettor was 3-betting all the time.
But here where we go from potentially going deep to finishing in 8th I am folding every time. My perception of people who tank and then go all in is that they often have monsters. Similarly people who look uncomfortable. But your read appeared to be exactly right. The problem is that you don't have a hand that dominates AQ/AJ/KQ type hands. Yes you are way ahead of hands like 66-99 but you are way behind hands like JJ+ (and in these situations I think villain is jamming much more frequently with JJ+ than 66-99). So at best you are hovering near 50% equity where its just not worth it at this stage, IMO.
Yeah, I think it's a fold because of how short the other stacks are. You can run this through an ICM calculator-- running your $EV if you call and win vs. the cash you make if you bust out. Given the stack distribution at the table I wouldn't be surprised if your equity needed to be over 70%, which pretty much makes your calling range KK+.
Then again, nobody is that deep-- the chip leader has 22BB-- so that may mitigate it a little, like QQ+, AKs. I'm not sure offhand, and I don't really feel like running it (and can't without each pay jump anyway), but my guess is that there is more monetary value for you in outlasting the short stacks than in taking a big flip where you could go out 8th or 7th if you lose.
