Quote:
Originally Posted by fortisque
[table]
Even against a top 4% range (TT+,AK,AQs) we have the right equity to call off, and villian obviously is much wider than that.
Ah, but the whole point of the thread is to get us thinking about whether Villain is "obviously" shoving with a range that conforms to the rest of society (in which case it's an easy call) ... or whether Villain is some sort of deviant that must be treated differently.
In the end, we're not that far apart, even if I'm trying to make more room for the Nit of the Century thesis. Putting Villain/NOTC on a 4% range UTG is about as extreme as I can go. (If he's this nitty, he's likely to continue to play extra tight in early position (ABC Poker) rather than rethink his ranges as the blinds go up and shove/fold becomes a bigger part of his strategy.)
The second half of your math models all of this this just fine. Thanks for running the numbers. We don't know enough about Villain to tighten the range any further, and we probably don't even know enough to feel confident in modeling anything as tight as 4%. I'm ready to decide that the Court of Poker Justice has ruled, and that, beyond a reasonable doubt, there's no reason to fold this.