We are on the stone cold bubble of the $55 $30k guarantee on ICM. I have been hitting some hands and getting paid (flopped two boats and stacked the V both times when they flopped trips), and current sit in 6th in chips with 49.5 bbs (62 left, 61 get paid).

I am in the BB with TT. LJ opens to 2.1 bbs with a 20.2 bb stack. SB with 46.2 bb stack flats. I really don't want SB in the hand and don't think he can really have a calling range if I shove. So I shove, happy to take a flip (or better) with LJ. LJ folds and SB snaps with AKo.

Was this an ICM punt by me? Or by SB? (I would never have played SBs line, and would fold AKo -- or any hand really -- on the bubble).

Anyhow, all thoughts are welcome.

This is a spot where risk premiums are really high for both the SB and the hero.

I *think* the right strategy for SB is to 3-bet, intending to call off vs LJ shove and fold to your 4-bet rip. SB should be highly incentivized to knock you out of the hand.

As played by the hero, ugh, I think we can flat TT here mostly, can see an argument to squeeze something like 10BB intending to call off an LJ jam and fold to SB shove. 3-bet/folding feels gross but so often we're going to win the pot uncontested or get the spot vs. LJ and we have room to fold if the SB backraises. But even calling off vs. LJ - when the LJ should be really tight getting it in - feels kind of sick.

My first thought was definitely flat. But did not want to play TT against 2 players; especially the SB, who I really did not think should have a calling range. I figured BB would surely raise any hand he would call a shove with, because he wouldn't want me to see a flop for one more BB, and have a basically undefined range, especially IP.

My first reaction was not a bad play because SB has only 10 blinds and LJ is going to fold like 99% of the time.

But the problem is that SB is likely min raising here mostly with very strong hands. I don't really get why SB didn't shove but then its probably an attempt to min cash if they miss the flop (like if they have AK/AQ or if they have JJ and flop has two overcards). I think SB will call a lot here. And of course I am wrong.

The other problem i have here is that we are attempting to win like 6 bb's and are risking up to 43 bb's. And if SB calls we are likely less than 50% to win overall.

So in this spot I think I go set mining 3 way and just call.

SB is the other big stack at the table. I had him (barely) covered. I just couldn't see him have any hand that would flat the minraise, and then call off my shove. Maybe, I've got this all wrong, but if SB has a premium hand, why would he let me in so cheap to out flop him? He should want me out of the hand with his premiums, even more than I want him out of the hand; given that I have him covered and am in position.

But I think I probably did punt here, because much of the pop is not going to think it through that much; and they see AKo regardless of the situation and are willing to call it off -- probably thinkin I could make this move with any A.

I doubt you can get AKo to fold in most situations where they are all in preflop vs only one other player. If viilain,
I wouldn't fold here but I do find Ak fold easier when there are two raisers in front of me and the action remains open to the original raiser. So, I think shoving 40bbs here is ambitious.

He may have seen your other all ins and decided you were lag and not a nit.

I think the deciding factor in whether is was an icm punt is how many really short stacks were there and where were they in regards to the blinds. Without this info, it's just a spot that you played aggressive and lost a flip. ( For example, if there were two 1bbs stacks in the blinds I. The next two hands, I would label it a punt)

Also, what was the rule about tying. Does the bigger stack go out after the smaller?

You didn't ICM punt, the SB did.

I got it backwards. What I meant was SB is going to fold like 99% of the time and the original raiser only has 10 blinds.

I really think SB totally misplayed this and if he was going to call the original raise, should have folded to your all in (I would have).

The one hand that SB can have and play like this is AA. That happened to me at a Foxwoods tournament like 10 years ago. I had KK and I shoved after he called a raise like you did and lost. It wasn't the bubble though but I had like 30 or 35 blinds. Since an A never came I would likely have lost it all anyway.

61 get paid and I was in 6, V was likely not far behind. We both easily fold to the $ -- not even a small question about that.

If two players both go out on the bubble, the shorter stack is eliminated first. (This could not have happened in this hand).

Result:

SB definitely punted. But I think I did too ... I need to be aware that a random may not be ICM aware and I really don't want a call here. So unless I know SB is ICM aware, I should just flat here.

I didn't see where you said you were in 6th before. Kinda surprised that 7-10 stack plays the hand as sb did.

While not a fan of fancy play, I do think you could have 3 bet the lj to an amount that may induce him to shove (or cause sb to raise or fold rather than limp) but still leave the action open for you to reraise if the sb calls a 4b. Seems like you had a lot of room to maneuver your 45bb stack with a lj 2.x raise rather than just shove.

While the money may have just gone in preflop with more steps, it sounds like you may have even found a fold given the Ak flop if played smaller.

If you going to make mistakes (and we all do), aggressive mistakes are the best kind.

That is the unfortunate thing about ICM punts, they hurt the person who gets called almost as much as the person who punted.

I don't really think you misplayed it necessarily. You could have gone for a flat to see the flop, I suppose, but who flats AK OOP there? He just played the hand badly all-around; it's unfortunate that you bore the brunt of the damage on it.

I get this, and it is absolutely correct on a theoretical level. But as one of the other posters pointed out, may jam doesn't have much upside ICM wise, and gigantic downside. I know SB should never have ANY hand (except maybe AA) that gets played this way; and I am really targeting LJ with this move. But if there is any chance SB is going to call me, it's a mistake by me.

I think I will not do this again -- unless I am certain that SB is a good, thinking player who cannot have a calling range.

I think it's a must jam, personally. When you cover everyone at the table on the bubble it is time to accumulate chips by pressuring everyone else's tournament lives. This is how you build big stacks moving into the end phase of the tournament. This a perfect spot with a premium holding and massive fold equity. You could probably shove any pair and hands like T9s, suited broadways, ace wheel suited.

This is correct versus medium stacks, I think. I think you need to be cautious vs. shorties as they are more likely to call with ranges that are much better than a wide range exploiting the massive chip lead will likely have. And then against the big stacks like SB in this hand who are near your stack size -- you really want to avoid an all in pf confrontation (except for the super, super premiums AA/KK).

Of course, I thought there was virtually no possibility SB would call my jam after he flatted LJ out of SB. So in theory this was a good move. But the theory did not account for the "human factor".

I am always amazed at the hands played 1-2 people off the bubble at the Wsop main event; A2 all in pre against kk with 900k stacks and a 22j flop. Kk busts having 3x average stack.

The inability to wait 2-3 hands for the bubble to burst never seems like a pro move to me.

Similarly, the thought of trying to bully a guy having a 3.3bb chip advantage at the bubble seems futile.

I agree with other posters that the 3-bet to around half the short stack's stack is better than the jam.

What I don't like about your play that no one has brought up is that the short stack will call you with much better hands than normal here. In a regular situation, this is a great move, and will elicit calls from 99, 88, random Broadway cards, etc. On the bubble, if I were the short stack, I would never call with anything worse. Overpairs and AK only. Maybe AQs occasionally if I think you're really pushing me around. But I will have probably 70+% against your range here.

With this in mind, I prefer flatting to raising. You can still get aggressive if 3 unders come and if you flop a set you have a good chance to win a huge pot.