Hey fam,

Made this potentially ridiculous AA fold, lemme know what you think.

FULL HAND: https://play.globalpoker.com/gp/10/h...4b0566f2920acc

Global Poker $1.5K Turbo [6max]

5 players left, with pretty serious pay jumps starting with 3rd+. Very important to note there are three small stacks and then Villain and I. I have been raising about 50% of my range for since the top 10.

UTG: 21,434 (18BB)
HERO (UTG+2/MP): 72,645 (61BB)
D: 33,266 (27BB)
SB: 9,986 (8BB)
Villain (BB): 52,269 (44BB)


SB posts 600, BB posts 1200

Preflop: Hero looks down at AA, raises to 2750.

Villain 3bets to 4300 in the BB.

Hero 4bets to 10,800 (small 4-bet due to small stacks around him). BB Calls

Flop (Pot: 22,800): 91010

Villain donk leads pot 22,800 (leaving 19k behind). Hero Folds.


Notes: This is a tough spot for me:

I really do not think he is leading with his overpairs JJ QQ KK, and I do not think he is bluffing with air when there is 3 shorties left and we are the two biggest stacks. This pot size bet leaves him with less than a quarter pot on the turn, so I treat the bet as an open shove of 40K. Using this logic and strength, his loose 4bet calling range seems to be A10, K10s, Q10s, 99. Granted that is a small value range but I just do not see any bluffs in this spot... unless he is just punting and is crazy with a flush draw? With pay jumps pretty steep near the end and a few >20BB stacks around, I came to a fold.


What do you think of the fold?

You have to go broke here. He has at least as many broadway diamonds, QJ etc hands that will do this. He will rarely do this with 99/T9, and will also check Tx a fair amount of the time.

You can fold holding Ad but if not we're not getting away.

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I can definitely see (and maybe always knew) this is a GTO call. I was thinking about the combo draws, QJs, AKs as his "bluff" range but the equity is still so strong.

But is this a ICM fold? Is this a fold against an opponent in $20 buy-in tourney playing far from optimal? I could not justify the call.

Yes it's an ICM jam, you aren't even in too much trouble if you lose and you're driving a tank over the finishing line if you win.

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yeah, good fold. it's the dream scenario for shorties when two big stacks clash and start spewing all their invaluable chips. I wouldn't even bother to 4-bet preflop here to be honest and just call his 3-bet.

I hope that you run this spot in PiO solver or at least check the bubble factor and calculate the required equity to call against the perceived range of V and deduce it via Equilab before making such an ultimate statement.