Tourney is a rebuy/addon tourney after the rebuy period but still not close to the money.

Villain opens 2x ep with 125bb. Btn calls with 50bb. Hero defends Td2d with 120bb.

Flop Qd9d2. Hero checks. Villain checks. Btn bets ~30% 2.25bb. Hero calls. Villain calls.

Turn Qd9d25d. Hero checks. Villain checks. Btn bets half pot 7bb. hero c/r to 20bb. villain cold 3bets to ~60bb. Btn folds. Hero????? Calling leaves a 1/3 pot bet remaining.



During the rebuy period, I stacked villain where im on the btn with AA and 4bet to 9bb facing a min open and min 3bet. Villain cold 5bet small and called off with AQs with 45bb. Not sure if thats relevant here or not.

Normally I would fold here because we would still have close to 100 bb's and it is likely Villain has a flush. Its over 50% effective stack so we would be pot committed. If I were willing to risk calling I would just jam so if Villain is on a flush draw or a boat draw he won't get to check it back on the river.

Though after raising pre-flop I don't get why he wouldn't cbet the flop with a flush draw given the flop favors his range. Myabe because he is afraid he would get raised by BTN and then a jam would happen on the turn if he missed and he would be in a bind.

There are times when I call if Villain is very aggro as was described. In one case in Prague at Rebuy Stars Casino Luka a guy bet the monotone flop after I checked and then jammed the turn with TPTK flush draw. I had AA and called down. But that was during the rebuy phase and I was willing to get knocked out. And I hadn't made a strong postflop bet as was done here. Also effective stacks were less than 100 bb's.

Given that you stacked Villain earlier I think that Villain is not jamming the turn because he wants you to think he is doing basically the same thing again and will call all in with a worse hand. In the end I think I fold here.

Villain's EP opening range with two diamonds is pretty much AJdd, A8dd, and KJdd. As the original raiser, it's difficult to see how villain doesn't c-bet with any of those hands after that flop. Seems much more likely after the check-call on the flop that he has Ad-x or maybe Kd-Jx (for a gutshot straight draw with a backdoor flush draw). Those make more sense for him to check and then 3-bet the turn. Sure, he could be baiting you with the nut flush after you check-raise, figuring that you won't ever fold a flush or a set, but why push you off whatever hand you may have made on the turn if he has the nuts? It's a crazy difficult spot he has put you in, particularly since he may have a draw the beats you on the river if you call and because you can still fold and preserve your stack. I bow before him either way -- this is a great bet (both for value if he has the nuts and as a semi-bluff if he doesn't have the nuts). Your history with him cuts both ways -- he's an idiot/steamer, or he knows you think he is.

You didn't say what the stakes are or the prize pool. If it's a low-stakes event, I probably call. If it's a big prize pool, I probably fold and figure to stack the guy later while preserving my stack against the variance of him having the nut draw or the bigger made flush. Sucks to do that, though.

I mean, was the whole table generally more spewy during the rebuy period? If so maybe AQs get it in is a non event.

Im just not buying the action that he has a flush. I’m more inclined to believe he has Ad or a spaz set. Most people are going to bet there over+fd as utg pfr a ton.

Vs btn’s flop sizing and your call, I’d expect to see some check raises with the NFD too.

On the turn when you check raise the btn, I’m suss AF of V’s big 3rd bet - generally in these spots if V is sitting there with the nuts he’s just smooth calling your bet because he’s terrified of killing the action.

Unless this player is a tough reg I’m shipping turn most of the time as played.

I think OR and BTN’s equity distribution is quite similar here, BTN still has 99, 22, AQ etc and some hands that wrap around the Q etc. Taking this into account - I don’t think OR can just lead entire range here OTF hence the check. We may start to see some betting with diamond combo’s from OR, but this just unnecessarily inflates the pot, esp if OR faces a sizeable 3b from yourself or BTN - he doesn’t want to be getting it in 125bb on a draw.

Based on turn action, population under-bluff this spot. I just can’t see what worse he wants to do this with other than a flush when you have a bunch of flush combos yourself. The only issue is, villain can still have some smaller flushes coming from the suited conn region of his range e.g 67 suited, 89suited etc. Tough one - don’t think calling is an option its either in or out considering stack behind if we do call. Id most likely fold here.

Not sure we really need to overthink this spot. Villain is cold-x/3betting a flushed turn in a multiway pot. If he's doing this with a naked Ad, he's an absolute beast and I bow down to him.

And if he's doing it with a smaller flush with all the suited connectors in his range? In the end, I too just fold here due to ROI and fact we are not near crippled if we just let it go. But point is we do beat part of V's likely value range here.

Because I don't think A-high flushes want to take this line, the Qd is on the board and the Td is in our hand, the number of plausible flushes here that beat us is so small. Especially when the EP is the one cold 3-betting, because they might not have a lot of the weak suited Kx or Jx hands. And if AdQx is ever a thing here, we end up being good here way more than we think.

Why do you not buy that? You don't think people check here? You don't like getting raised and especially not if you get raised and cold 3-bet, it checks through a lot, and when it doesn't you can still call or even check-raise sometimes.

What do you mean "all the"? Like "exactly 87s and 76s sometimes"?

OP,

I think fold is fine although I would also ask myself if given my playing experience with him so far villain would do this with less than a flush. If he's still doing it with sets maybe you have to get it in or at least flat and stack off on non-paired rivers. But this deep and with this line I think you rarely see weaker hands and you are dead to stronger hands.

Is this live and what's the buyin? That certainly would affect my perception of the line.

What’s the buy-in? I generally lean fold here.

Before folding, BTN still has all the sets and flushes except QQ — same with you. Your c/r is obviously very strong.

At low stakes pre-ITM, is he expecting to get two players to potentially fold strong hands? Usually no I think.

I will say if he is sitting there with the NFD and is tilted about getting blown off his equity, then I suppose I could see his play as a spazz. I’d need a couple hands of maniac or tilt from villain to call I think.

If he is doing this with sets he is really bad unless it is exactly 55. Villain checked flop and then didn't c/r with QQ/99/22. And to 3-bet massively like this when somebody could have the nut flush is awful. Especially after Hero c/r.

I also don't think this would be done with 87s or 76s because Hero can have a much bigger flush.

I folded once in a situation similar to this with a small flush on a flop where I had checked original raiser bet I c/r'd 4x from the BB and he raised to about 33% effective stack. He showed me his bluff after I folded with TPTK flush draw. But it was a smallish Foxwoods tournament.

In Prague I called a preflop raise in the BB with KQs flop was flush draw checked through 3 way. Turn I hit my flush and led out 67% pot and was raised by original raiser to 3.5x which was about 50% effective stack so I jammed and he had nut flush. It was early and I could and did rebuy.

Here I might call without thinking about it much because we did hit our flush, it could be vs a flush draw, and this is how this Villain plays. It would be a crying call, though I would jam. Villain would have to be bluffing about 35% to 40% of the time for this to break even. It's possible as there are 3 AQ hands and in theory Villain could be doing this with any AX hand.

But the reason I fold here mostly is that I hate getting knocked out ~60% of the time after rebuy period with 120 bb's to start the hand when we could still have about 95 bb's.

Couple clarifications. Plus spoilers


Average stack at this time was ~100b. 80bb is a starting stack plus the addon. So its not like 100bb is some massive stack, it would have been slightly below average. . Besides the blinds went up next hand and it would have been 65bb or something.


$99 buy in with 1 $90 rebuy if you bust and 1 $90 addon after rebuy period end. 1 hr rebuy period. Softer than average site during a promoted series.

don;t think you wanna do too much raising with less than like a J-high flush here and global raising frequency will be pretty low

the hand where you stacked him shows he's more than a little bit silly but even the silliest person is almost never coming in cold with a 3b with QQ or 99. You have an axiomatic catcher, he's not bluffing often, you should fold

Preflop
Standard call.

Flop
Standard call.

Turn
I actually lean towards leading here. With either player potentially having the naked A, K or J of diamonds, your hand is kind of vulnerable and need some protection, and you can also get value from hands like top pair, that might now check behind. As played I can get on board with check-raising, because BTN only has 50BB, and I am happy to play for stacks against him. However you are much deeper against MP, and now he wakes up with a cold 3-bet. With a bet and a raise behind him, its very likely, that at least one opponent has a flush, so this would be a crazy spot for MP to risk half his stack on a bluff. You also cant really call here, because MP is never going to bluff you on the river with so little left behind, and you cant improve. So its either jam or fold, and I think, you run into the nut flush way to often here, so I lean towards a fold.

Spoiler
Not exactly a big surprice. And also not that it was the nut flush, because I dont even think, a K high flush play like this very often.

cold 3b sizing is a huge tell too,like he could make it 33bb and induce all sorts of weirdness so to make it 60 is extraordinarily telling and a rousing hat tip to him if hes got just the Ad (can he even profitably call off a naked NFD vs 4b ship???)

He cant. In round numbers he would be putting in another 60BB to win a pot of 260BB. He would need over 20% equity, and since he is basically always against a made flush, he only have 7 outs, which is not enough.

thats what I thought

yeah if he's got a one street plan (cuz no ones folding river after calling turn) to blos you off a flush woth just an airball+blocker then good for him

sure maybe this guy as described will call it off but which universe is more likely: the one where hes never bluffing, or the one wheres rarely bluffing?