Quote:
Originally Posted by stremba70
Well, you said it yourself - folding good bed you about a 25% chance of getting a seat. If you call, even if big stack has AA-JJ you still have a 20% chance of doubling up. That gets you about a 50% chance of cashing
Just one minor point on this one, and I may have ****ed this up in my OP, but calling and winning actually implies way more than "only" doubling my chances, I think. My stack would be almost 4.5x the stack (2*2,3bb+0,5bb+0,7bb in antes) I would have after folding. Having close enough to 6bb is actually MASSIVE in this spot. Even in the worst case, this would be more than two full orbits worth of blinds and antes and I could obviously stall every single hand so I may not even have to pay all of those before the bubble is over. What's more, I would cover the three players to my right. From my limited experience in satellites, money automatically tends to flow toward the bigger stacks given that noone will want to mess with you.
Calling and winning is pretty much 100% winning the seat.
I will admit I didn't think about it that way, but even calling it off bad vs JJ+ wouldn't make a massive EV difference compared to just folding but you obviously want to avoid doing that.
Last edited by wilhelmraspe; 05-31-2023 at 11:56 AM.