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Hero to Zero in 3 hands - analysis please Hero to Zero in 3 hands - analysis please

11-15-2021 , 05:30 PM
God, this hurts. Mainly because I played like a clown but still, analysis please.
  • I've always suspected I sabotage myself as I tend to undo hours of solid play just as we get to the business end and this probably tops them all.
  • At the start of the 1st hand below I was only just pipped into 2nd place - had 2x the chips of 3rd place - a 00bb stack - and just 6 spots off the bubble with 69 players eft.
  • I thought I was nailed on for a long-overdue cash.
  • I was such a huge stack that even after exiting 30 mins ago, my stack would still be in 5th place now.


HAND 1
My gut told me he had KK or AA but as I min-raised the prev hand and folded to a shove by one of the shorter stacks to my immediate left, I also factored in this villain (one seat along but still EP) doing the same, so I pushed all-in.

partypoker, $50 + $5 - Hold'em No Limit - 7,000/14,000 (1,750 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Player5 (UTG): 162,217 (12 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): 1,171,060 (84 bb)
Player7 (MP): 281,577 (20 bb)
Player8 (MP+1): 416,861 (30 bb)
Player1 (CO): 639,625 (46 bb)
Player2 (BU): 588,559 (42 bb)
Player3 (SB): 763,273 (55 bb)
Player4 (BB): 433,980 (31 bb)

Pre-Flop: (35,000) Hero (Hero) is UTG+1 with K A
1 fold, Hero (UTG+1) raises to 28,000, 1 fold, Player8 (MP+1) 3-bets to 84,000, 4 players fold, Hero (UTG+1) 4-bets to 1,169,310 (all-in), Player8 (MP+1) calls 331,111 (all-in)

Flop: (865,222) J 6 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (865,222) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (865,222) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 865,222

Showdown:
Hero (UTG+1) shows K A (high card, Ace)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 30%, Flop: 18%, Turn: 16%, River: 0%)

Player8 (MP+1) shows K K (a pair of Kings)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 70%, Flop: 82%, Turn: 84%, River: 100%)




2 HANDS LATER
Now this is the real groan-inducing hand and I know I would not have played like this if i hadn't lost a huge chunk of my stack minutes earlier. I'm not sure if it was pure self-sabotage or just desperation to chip up and, if up against Ax, reclaim my lost stack. As donk-ish as I think I played it. I'm also inclined to think that I had reason to believe I was ahead and that villain was the bigger donk because he actually called off 20k with a mid pair when he had only committed 30k up to that point, putting his tourney on the line with a bluff catcher. Again, please give me youR honest thoughts.

partypoker, $50 + $5 - Hold'em No Limit - 7,000/14,000 (1,750 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Player7 (UTG): 278,077 (20 bb)
Player8 (UTG+1): 807,472 (58 bb)
Player1 (MP): 727,125 (52 bb)
Player2 (MP+1): 585,059 (42 bb)
Player3 (CO): 752,773 (54 bb)
Player4 (BU): 409,480 (29 bb)
Player5 (SB): 144,717 (10 bb)
Hero (BB): 752,449 (54 bb)

Pre-Flop: (35,000) Hero (Hero) is BB with 3 3
1 fold, Player8 (UTG+1) raises to 31,500, 2 players fold, Player3 (CO) calls 31,500, 2 players fold, Hero (BB) calls 17,500

Flop: (115,500) 4 4 2 (3 players)
Hero (BB) checks, Player8 (UTG+1) checks, Player3 (CO) checks

Turn: (115,500) 4 (3 players)
Hero (BB) bets 719,199 (all-in), Player8 (UTG+1) folds, Player3 (CO) calls 719,199

River: (1,553,898) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 1,553,898

Showdown:
Hero (BB) shows 3 3 (a full house, Fours full of Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 18%, Flop: 11%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

Player3 (CO) shows 8 8 (a full house, Fours full of Eights)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 82%, Flop: 89%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)
Hero to Zero in 3 hands - analysis please Quote
11-16-2021 , 02:13 AM
Hand 1: If you're that sure he has a big hand, and you don't want to risk the downside of a flip for that much of your stack, you can just flat the 3-bet and play conservatively postflop. I guess you could fold if you were super-confident in your reads, but it's hard to be that sure in online tournaments and how shallow they play. In general, ripping it in with AK for 30bb effective is rarely a bad play.

Hand 2: There is no reason to rip it in for seven times the pot. That pot is not big enough for you to "protect your hand," and it's very plausible one of the other two players has a pair better than yours. If this is a habit of yours, you need to eliminate it ASAP, whatever causes it. You're going to get too many results like this, where you punt off a big stack with no equity.

I'd probably lead turn about 1/3 pot and reevaluate based on what happened next.
Hero to Zero in 3 hands - analysis please Quote
11-19-2021 , 10:01 PM
how much is up top?
Hero to Zero in 3 hands - analysis please Quote
11-30-2021 , 05:11 AM
Hand 1: agree with Nath's comments.

Hand 2: One mistake that I've made recently and that I have to be aware of the number of big blinds in my stack going into a hand, and be more aware of the stack to pot ratio on the flop. I play alot of SNGs where the stacks start to get fairly shallow quite quickly, so that's what I'm used to. Alot of the time an all in bet on the flop is appropriate. However when I play some deeper stacked MTTs, I can lose awareness of how deep I really am.

In this case a stack to pot ratio of over 6 is definitely risking too much given the pot size and the strength of your hand. Not sure if tilt control was a factor in that bet, but it is something I need to get better at myself at times in a game.
Hero to Zero in 3 hands - analysis please Quote

      
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