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Happened again - hand analysis please Happened again - hand analysis please
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Happened again - hand analysis please

11-14-2021 , 08:27 PM
$22 MTT on Party Poker - 1159 entrants - I'm 7th of 37 players left with just over 4.1m chips (41bb)
Blinds 50k/100k

BU: 22bb
SB (HERO): 41bb
BB: 17bb
EP: 26bb
MP: 10bb
MP+1: 32bb
HJ: 24bb
CU: 11bb
  1. Action folds to the button who jams his 22bb so as per my last thread in the same situation, looks like a steal - with ace rag, broadway or small-mid-pairs.
  2. I have 99 and go and tank for a bit - ultimately I call knowing I'm flipping at worst but you gotta gamble to win (so they say).
  3. Villain flips A9 and I'm 69% to win - flop duly delivers an ace and I'm down to 18bb.

Should I have called or folded to wait for a better spot - either a bigger hand or where I'm pushing all-in rather than having to call?
11-14-2021 , 09:36 PM
Shnap.

Btw you can use this tool to study preflop spots. I highly recommend it: https://www.holdemresources.net
11-16-2021 , 02:09 AM
You got in as a 70/30 favorite, and you still had enough chips that you didn't bust and you have plenty of 3-bet shoving equity. If you can't deal with that happening, well, 30% of the time, then tournaments aren't for you. It's part of the game.

Too many thinly veiled bad beat "strategy" posts on this forum lately.
11-16-2021 , 08:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath Happened again - hand analysis please
Too many thinly veiled bad beat "strategy" posts on this forum lately.
Itís a genuine strategy post.
11-17-2021 , 03:07 AM
You would have snap called there if you had KK, right? In which case, you are STILL roughly 70%. The best you can get your money in is generally 80%. You can't afford to sit around and wait for premium pairs. You read your opponents correctly, and made the appropriate call. What situations do you see where you're going to be in a superior position?

If you want to win the tournament, you should call. In order to live, you must be willing to die. You NEED chips to win. You were in a spot, where 7/10 times, you probably would have been chip leader, or close to it.

Unless there's some wacky pay jumps considerations, this is a clear call. And its not even like you're out of it if you lose. You still have 18 BB, right in the riddle of the pack at your table.
11-18-2021 , 06:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MissVix Happened again - hand analysis please
Itís a genuine strategy post.
If it is a genuine strategy post, stop the HH at the decision point. Results taints responses.
11-20-2021 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by St Bernadino Happened again - hand analysis please
If it is a genuine strategy post, stop the HH at the decision point. Results taints responses.
This. And also don't complain about the result, or even hint that you lost the hand.
11-24-2021 , 05:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Melvinvanhorn Happened again - hand analysis please
You would have snap called there if you had KK, right? In which case, you are STILL roughly 70%. The best you can get your money in is generally 80%. You can't afford to sit around and wait for premium pairs. You read your opponents correctly, and made the appropriate call. What situations do you see where you're going to be in a superior position?
But the way I look at it that whilst KK is the same 70% chance to win as 99, the difference is you're very unlikely to be at much risk whereas calling with a mid pair means there's lots of cards (and pocket pairs) that have you crushed.


Quote:
If you want to win the tournament, you should call. In order to live, you must be willing to die. You NEED chips to win. You were in a spot, where 7/10 times, you probably would have been chip leader, or close to it.
I understand but I also tend to feel stupid when villain outflops me or turns over a bigger pair - and I wonder if I was too reckless, too gung-ho, especially when it comes to calling an all-in vs shoving (which has fold equity).


Quote:
Unless there's some wacky pay jumps considerations, this is a clear call. And its not even like you're out of it if you lose. You still have 18 BB, right in the riddle of the pack at your table.
Thanks. Question is, does this apply to all pairs, even 22? What about non-pocket paired hands?


Quote:
Originally Posted by St Bernadino Happened again - hand analysis please
If it is a genuine strategy post, stop the HH at the decision point. Results taints responses.
I listed the result in case that backed up the rationale that I shouldn't have called.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul Happened again - hand analysis please
This. And also don't complain about the result, or even hint that you lost the hand.
Didn't complain.
11-24-2021 , 06:25 PM
Also, every time I’ve gone out in a tournament when deep, usually being reasonably well-placed at least, there’s always been super short stacks
That cling on, eroding down to 6bb (which when just 10-30 players left can seriously dent all but the chip leader) and then ratchet up the page jumps.

I mean, I went out in ninth yet one of the short stacks made it to fifth for 3x the payout and another even made it to heads up.

And as for my hand with 99, is it good strategy to call off most of a very healthy stack on what is usually likely to be a 50-50? I can’t see that it is. Hence why I showed the opponent’s hand and the result as maybe it’s evidence as to why calling off with a mid-pair is a bad move unless a massive chip leader or a short stack.

Last edited by MissVix; 11-24-2021 at 06:32 PM.
11-26-2021 , 04:39 PM
If the opponent is any good, I call off 77+, AJs AQo in this spot. Against a weaker opponent, I might go with TT+ AK and sigh fold AQ, 99. In a vacume, calling 99 AQ is probably alright
11-28-2021 , 10:47 PM
You have 50% equity and better (60/65% in best case) against BTN, half or your stack! Close to ITM!
It depends on how often you play these MTT, if very often than snap anyway it is fold.


Answer to your question: call is just good here, basically speaking this is break-even situation! Fold is also good move here!

Last edited by bisquick; 11-28-2021 at 11:02 PM.
11-28-2021 , 10:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelBreeze Happened again - hand analysis please
Shnap.

Btw you can use this tool to study preflop spots. I highly recommend it: https://www.holdemresources.net
ICMIZER is much better for these spots, just btw. And you can have some free calculations

Last edited by bisquick; 11-28-2021 at 11:04 PM.

      
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