Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin
Top X% finishes--as opposed to Top Y (like top 3 or whatever) or FTs or Win%-- is a much better metric because:
1. Pick a reasonable value for X--say 5%--and they'll converge decently quickly. You'd only need >=20 entrants for a given event to add to your exposure base.
2. Top X% is invariant to field size.
3. Top X% is invariant to prize pool (which is also a function of field size but also buy-in amount)
An actuarial approach (and what I'm pretty sure is the best approach) would be: take your exposure (your volume i.e. the count of how many events you've played) and multiply by (X/100). That's your expected # of finishes at or above that threshold. Compare to your actual results. Is your actual/expected ratio greater than 100%?
For reference I've been getting around 200% for both X=10% and X=5%. In other words, a top 10% finish every 5 events or so and a top 5% finish every 10 events or so. If you told me I could make a Faustian bargain--sustain those results but in exchange never again penetrate beyond the 95th percentile of a field--I'd accept it immediately.
1600 events is a pretty good sample size and could very well be fully credible if you're looking at metrics which are invariant to buy-in and field size.
1600 is NOT a good sample size if you're preoccupied with ROI. If I played 1,600 events with an ABI=$100 and won $60k, then bricked six straight WSOPMEs, am I really a breakeven player? So ROI, the traditional metric, just really isn't very good especially if you want to take shots at very high BI stuff--ROI is sensitive to volatility inherent in the vicissitudes of the game, and also volatility in BI amounts attempted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fundiver199
This is indeed a good metric, but is there any simple way to get this number from your tracker or from 3-party sources like Sharkscope? The advantage of ROI is, its very easy to calculate. But as you say, if you play a wide span of buyins, both average ROI and total ROI are easily skewed to the point, where they become meaningless. Having crushed 1$ tournaments dont help much, if you cant beat higher buyins, and losing all your winnings on "shots" is poor bankroll management but does not mean, you are not a winning player.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin
Doubt it. You should be keeping your own results in a spreadsheet, at least session-by session with relevant information including:
-Number of events
-Number of buy-ins
-Total $ Volume
-Total win/loss
-Average field size
-Count of TopX% finishes
FWIW, SharkScope does have some useful stats here. They have both "Average ROI" vs. "Total ROI": Total ROI is just overall cashes over buyins; average ROI averages the ROI of each individual tournament you enter. (So, if, say, you entered nine $10 tournaments and won $100 in each, then bought into a $1000 tournament and didn't cash, your Total ROI would be negative, but your Average ROI would be 900%, if I'm right about how they calculate that.)
And they also break down finishes by percentile-- "late finishes" measures top 10% of the field, for example-- although if you want something more granular than what they offer you'll have to calculate that yourself.
(Admittedly, some of their stats aren't exactly accurate-- for example, everyone who makes it through a day-1 flight on ACR is technically considered to finish "first" by the site, so I think that will show up in your "wins" stat even though that's not really "winning a tournament" in any sense of the word.)