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FT turn decission with overpair FT turn decission with overpair

10-16-2023 , 10:44 AM
Hi. The hand is from final table with 7 players left. Its a PKO with 1200 player

Hero have shortest stack with 16.5bb.
Two 25-30bb stacks and rest is 40-60bb. (I have some ICM calcs if needed).

Im DB and raise to 2bb, and sb 26.5bb stack calls, BB folds.
SB is pritty lose pre (and agressive).
He did call A3r on sb vs me ealier.
My image is closer to onest than agressive pre and post flop.

I have KhKs and the flop is:

3s 8s Js and i cb33% with overpair and 2nut flush draw. He calls.

Turn is Td (3s 8s Js Td) pot is 10bb with 12.3bb Behind.

What is the best action for hero now? I:
Spoiler:
I bet all in and he calls with a Q high flush (Qs5s)


I think my flop sizing was wrong.
FT turn decission with overpair Quote
10-17-2023 , 01:32 PM
Yeah, I don't think you can ever get away from this, especially with the king of spades in your hand. His range includes a bunch of combo draws and top pair, maybe with the other card a spade, which you crush. You really are only crushed by a flush. Maybe bet the flop bigger to get paid by ace-high draws, but there's really nothing you can do with 16.5BB in a tournament here. If you start folding in spots like this you will never be able to make deep runs. In tournaments you simply don't get enough hands this good to start folding them. Cash games are a different story, although I still would have a very hard time ever folding before the river here.
FT turn decission with overpair Quote
10-19-2023 , 01:24 PM
Thanks for you reply! I agree with you, and think I should bet maybe 40-45% on flop with my stack size to have a 0.8-1SPR on turn.
I think it was 100% standard in most mtt spots, just wasn't sure for Final table. Guess there should be 1-3 with same stack or shorter than me, before I should even consider playing the hand diffrently. Lost a aks qq flip with a top 3 stack 8 handed. But feel like I will have a small to medium stack at FT often from the way I play now. But seems like GTOwiz think it not all about having a big stack for FT, so am again a bit confused about basic strategy.
FT turn decission with overpair Quote
10-20-2023 , 02:50 AM
I think small bet flop into overbet jam turn will be better here than a larger bet on the flop and a PSB turn jam (with your range that wants to c-bet and jam). You keep the villain's range wider with the small flop bet, so you will win without showdown more often when you jam turns, and winning without showdown is crucial for ICM situations where risking one's tournament life is preferably avoided.

The other option (larger bet on the flop and a PSB turn jam) narrows their flop calling range slightly, so their call vs turn jam frequency is slightly higher, but allows you to win more chips when they do fold turn. The difference in EV is going to be minimal, the main difference being your tournament life is at risk more often.
FT turn decission with overpair Quote
10-22-2023 , 04:29 PM
I agree with Ash that it doesn't make a tremendous difference, but I actually prefer a smaller bet on the flop here. You keep their very marginal hands in (hands like Ts8x) with a bet of 33% that they may fold to a bet of 50%. Without the spade in my hand I would bet larger for equity denial, but here you actually want them to call unless they have As (and in that case they're probably not folding to any bet regardless).
FT turn decission with overpair Quote

      
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