$1500 tourney

Me: 50BB
Villain: 80BB
1 bb ante.

Villain first in on the button raises to 3BB. Sb Folds, I'm on the BB with 56c and make the call.

Pot: 7bb

Flop: Kc 7c 8s

I check, he checks

Turn: Qc

I bet 5bb, he calls

River: Jd

I bet 10.5bb, he raises allin.
I think I am beat most of the time but make the call. He shows AJc and I lose.

I felt I was beat and that he had very few bluffs since I bet fairly large on the river. But my hand is so strong and there's a chance he can have a set or 2 pair.. I suppose I could have check called river but that feels like a weak play.

Would really like to hear your perspectives on this one.

Hi OP

Tough spot

Barring some weird ultra lag deep meta table dynamic there are too many straight and flush combos to jam 2pr / set combos and I doubt straights are raising either.

So V range is essentially polarised to strong flushes and bluffs holding Ac

If V is incapable of turning Ac x into a bluff, then you’re in that twilight zone of holding a made hand that can’t be good. 56cc beats (almost) no other flush combos, so you can fold.

If V is capable of turning Ac x into a bluff, then assess the likelihood they’ll risk 60% stack with it. If they’re bluff shoving often - call, laugh and get drunk back in the hotel room.

I pretty much agree with oldsilver. If the opponent is capable, he is not raising the river for value with any hand worse than yours. If he has a straight, a set or two pair, he just call, because there is a potential flush on the board. So your hand is a bluffcatcher. In soft low stakes games maybe we can make an exploitable fold assuming, that a raise on the river is essentially always the nuts. But 1.500$ is not the cheapest buyin even in live poker. So I think, you need to assume, the opponent is capable of finding bluffs, and then a small flush is simply to high in your range to fold.

As for check-calling the river as an alternative, its a play, we can make from time to time. But I do think, the main line here has to be betting for value. There are just to many second best hands, he can have, that will call, if we bet but check back, if we check. I also dont think, he have that many flushes. Must likely he checked back AJ of diamonds on the flop, because the hand has showdown value even without improving. But if he had a hand like JT/J9/T9 of diamonds, or maybe even A2-A5 of diamonds, he would most likely have bet the flop to try and make you fold. So you just got very unlucky to run into one of the few combos in his range, that you were losing to.

Can hero bet even bigger on the river (75%-pot), to make the bet-fold easier? It's possible.

If V has Ac/x would they more likely 3-bet the nut flush draw on the turn? (if V is a scrappy style player).


I estimate 25 combos of flush draws that beat hero, and 31 combos of Ac/x.

To exploit V they must be pure calling the turn and then bluffing the river every time they hold Ac/x. If V mixes any calls or give-ups with Ac/x then I don't think bet-calling is good in this spot.

It's a matter of folding with great pain and a little uncertainty.

I would consider 3!/fold pre here at some freq here. I like playing these hands as 3b even though we only have 50 bb and it can get very awkward post in a 3b pot. Idk button should be open fairy wide so I think if we think they open optimally, they have a lot of folds in there also. Prolly 3bet to 3.5 or 4x to discourage flat (3betting this sizing with my whole range).

Hmm as played bad luck. I’m never find fold on river. I would just say it was a cooler and not much you can do honestly. Btw I find villains x on flop as kinda odd. Maybe it’s good with CC no pair but idk I’m cbetting that flip like 90% of the time with my whole range. Think it’s kinda goofy to not cbet super small for villian here.

Not a fan of giving free equity to what can be a very weak bb defend range. Think people should cbetting this spot at super super high freq in button vs bb when bb can defend so so wide here and most bbs will just play super face up post here. Maybe with cc we don’t want to get blown off equity but yea I think if you go like 1/4 or 1/3 pot it’s an easy call to a x raise and re eval turn.

What site?