vivek,
Our hand doesn't = As2d for the exact reason that we show up with hands like AxQs much more often.

You've lost me.

id call river and would be willing to sidebet on it if you dont know results

Hmm, I think there are more XXss hands in the range of someone calling a 3bet OOP than AQo/AJo. Also aren't your first and last sentences contradictory -- if ZJ can very profitably triple barrel "his whole range" since charder's folding so often, can't he have hands better than A2 but worse than AK in his river bluff range?

NSB,
We show up to the river with so many one pair bluff catchers that he will be value shoving hands worse than AK sometimes.

You say he's value-shoving them and Todd says he's bluff-shoving them. I'm confused some more (but at least I know what you were getting at).

I very much doubt he's value shoving worse hands than AK. I'd say sets (AA/KK) are the bottom of his value range. At the very least its AK+ imo.

Good analsyis.

I agree the way the hand played out, by the river we have virtually no spade flushes in our range (Axss). Even if we have a few XXss hand in our range for calling the 3b, certain Flush/FDs might raise flop, might CRAI on the turn, etc

However, I still have alot of trouble believing on the very 1st hand of a $25k DS live tournament that hes thinking about setting up big high variance spots/thinking about profitable 3 barrelling spots where hes risking so much of his stack etc.

This. So I call. And I dont think he would 3bet 7's or 8's pre flop

Result?

He isn't bluffing hands in between AK/A2 because he can easily pot control them on the turn if he wants and this river isn't really a card that smashes his range.

I'm not giving a solution to the hand or guessing what ZJ's plans are, I'm just saying that if ZJ thinks that charder's range to call river = only XXss then he can bet 3x with everything. Moreover he HAS to bet the river because charder is going call/call/fold with hands that pick up equity on the turn but are bluffcatchers at the end

meh psyduck i disagree b/c im not peeing AJo and prolly not AQo either, My preflop range is like maybe 77+ AJs+ JTs+ KQs Maybe 55, 66, AQo, T9s etc...or something like that, obviously its going to vary, but if you think its something like that, then think about my turn calling range... AK is actually near the bottom of my callinge range to his huge bet

if that's the bottom of your turn range shouldn't you call? I mean obviously Zeejustin doesn't know your read for sure, but he has a pretty good idea what it is.

Also I don't think 77 or 88 or 1010 should even be in discussion of his river range. I think it's like a flush or a straight or a bluff, mAybe AA but not likely. He would not shove so much i don't think with a small set, maybe, but i don't think so.

Okay honestly there's 6 pages of every possible way to look at this hand from both of your sides. Just tell us the results before I jump off a building. My guess is u folded but before u did you asked him to tell you wat he had after the tourney and u folded ur AK face up

he folded, hopefully justin posts at some point

I really like Frank1The1Tank's posts ITT, I would also call the river more often than not. Normally our range is going to be really strong when we check-call a PSB on the turn in a 3-bet pot, but I don't think it's the case on this board and ZJ could pick up on that.

Also I'd just like to suggest a rule that randoms who come into HSMTT threads and beg for results get some sort of ban. This is a strategy forum not a place to gather round and listen to a story.

why??? really dont understand people saying this. Think of my preflop range that now calls a turn potsized bet...

I don't have advice on the hand or anything but only 2 gutter balls got there on the river.

Even with all the good logic as to how few flushes he potentially has, which also occured to me upon reading OP, I still think that ZJ isn't likely to take Charder off a likely strong bluffcatcher. I mean he has to know Charder flats a lot of his range on that flop and the range for him to continue on the turn has almost no really weak hands. Charder is like never open shoving river as a bluff and is oop. The range of hands he puts him on is something like AA, KK, 77, 88, AsX where X is likely big or a made flush, with a few AxQs or something similar combos, but as Charder says and I would suspect, most weak offsuit hands are pitched preflop. Also, the turn bet is likely very profitable as Charder will pitch a lot hands that call flop, so its not like he has to shove river for the turn bet to be profitable. Given what ZJ must think of our range and suspect we will do with it most of the time, I think river is a fold.
Also, as a side note, shoving turn is really bad.
This is one of those hands where we have the top of our range and I still want to fold because of the dynamic, but question myself about it for a long time. Also, somewhat irrationally, if another tournament identical to this one was starting 1 hour later, I would be much more likely to call this river.

good fold b/c like OP says his turn PSB calling range is insanely strong and villain knows this, if there is some sick leveling going on by villain it seems like he might have to actually think about stuff during the hand and wouldnt be able to act instantly every time

I don't think it really matters what ZJ had. Unless he had like A7 and was value shoving his two cards this time shouldn't really effect the decision.

dear god fine, 2 gutters and an open-ended got there.

Why is it so bad? I really don't think anyone has given a clear argument why it's bad. I assume it's a hand-wavy "we don't get called by worse and don't get better to fold" which does have some merit, but is he really always calling KK or 4s3s but always folding Ac8c or 8c7c or AK?

If our shoving range on the turn is {AsK, AsQ, XsXs, AA, KK, 88, 77} then he's not in the greatest of spots with any of his hands. Add to that the fact that we have between 9 and 15 outs against every hand that beats us and I think this is better than check/calling all of these and then trying to soul read or trap him on the river.

yeah but I win $500 from chad batista if he was bluffing so VERY RELEVANT IMO

lol, yes that's it. End off story. We don't get called by worse and don't get better to fold. ZeeJustin is very good and he is never bet/folding a set, two pair or a low flush on the turn.

I think you are misunderstanding why I/we said this in the first place. I said that MOST of your range doesn't look to be THAT strong because almost anything in your range but a flush is a bluff catcher on the river. Also to those saying A7 or w/e in ZJ's range, there is no way he would shove that wide for value. If ZJ's bluffing here (which I already said I think he is a decent amount of the time) that means he's expecting charder to fold quite a bit in this spot as well. It would be way too thin to shove hands that don't even beat charder's bluff catching range for value.