http://www.cardrunners.com/pokertool...018620/replay/

Where's the mistake?

Everything after PF is bad.

I'd just x/f the flop - you're rarely going to get him to go away with a cBet and you've got a weak holding OOP.

As played just fold to the raise. I'm not sure what you're expecting to happen after on the turn if you don't bink a J.

Again on the turn just x/f - do you really think he's going to fold to your shove after raising you on the flop and putting out a 3/4 pot turn bet?

Seems like you got way too attached to the hand and wouldn't let it go at any cost.

hehe

Think we can call flop given the odds and almost always we'll get a street of value when we hit the J even if he has 2 pair or set, and when he has straight it's gg for him. So I don't think we can fold flop but def fold turn. Do you agree?


Edit: btw I would fold turn given the stack depth because in deeper games I think we can call or reraise/jam based on opponent's infos. If we fold flop I think we are not playing poker at all and yes def fold turn since we have no fold equity

Would like your opinion instead of heheing

I would have check/called flop as you have a gutshot that will be somewhat disguised if hitting - he would probably bet on the flop if he hit, on the turn again feeler bet if he checked back flop since you have some many draws - I guess on the flop if he checks back you won't know the strength of his hand.

I definitely wouldn't jam since you are both pretty deep.

I definitely don't agree as I said in my original response.


What odds exactly do you think are in your favour? You've got 4 outs (7 if you're very lucky) + some backdoor stuff. After you call his bet he's got about 1.5 SPR so you're getting very little in terms of implied odds.

This sort of play might be playable if you're 100BB deep or something but when you're so shallow, you're not getting anywhere near the odds you think you are.

thinking you can win every hand is a dangerous mentality

I don't know the math on all of this including ICM.
But i think C-betting that board when you have a backdoor royal draw and a gutter to the nuts seems perfectly fine.
Calling the tiny raise on the flop also seems fine.
When you on the turn has 3 outs to the nuts, and 9 outs to the second nuts you should not fold.
I do think the turn shove is a big mistake given the stacksizes at the table. You have K high and he bets half his stack. In what i have learned, shoving big draws are good because of fold equity. I don't know if this guy was a nut house, but on a final table covering a lot of people, going so bananas that you bet 172k out of you 372k on the turn as a bluff when you opponent has called a flopraise on that board is awful without a dead soulread.
So excpect him to have it, and call. Sucks when you wiff and have to fold for 200k into 575k, but not losing those ekstra 200k would still have you in 4/8 instead of tied for 8.
If you hit a straight or a flush you probably still get paid.