So i just bluffed of my entire stack in the gg big daily $10. Did not have any reads on opponent but im curious what u guyss think of the river shove since all previous streets are pretty standard play i guess.
Putting ICM to the side, this is a pretty rough spot for us because we probably shouldn't be betting much at all on this flop. It's probably something like a 80-90% range check spot, mostly because your opponent should have a pretty snug calling range here, and probably even more snug when you take ICM into account. That being said, KdQx does want to bet here some percentage of the time at +cEV, so the choice of combo is fine.
The interesting part here is that, in theory, our opponent shouldn't have a really wide calling range here at all considering ICM. At lot of Ax should be 3-betting, a lot of broadway hands either 3-bet or even fold at some frequency. This range shouldn't have a lot of diamond draws and shouldn't have a lot of Ax that call multiple streets. So iyou could argue this bet probably functions pretty well as a triple barrel, especially if we think villain actually has a lot of stuff like JJ-QQ in their range that doesn't raise pre due to ICM considerations.
In practice, though, I think our opponents call way too often pre here and have way more Ax and broadway cards than they should, so the question is what hands is our bluff targeting? Is a random QJ/KJ calling flop and turn? Are hands like 77-88 calling flop and turn? When our opponent gets to this river, they're primarily going to have trips or better, and we have to think this bet folds at least a fair amount of Ax for it to be a good bluff. I just don't see low-stakes players getting to the river here and folding trips very often, even if they should. On the flip side villain could have a lot Tx here that calls multiple streets and folds river, but having KQ specifically blocks a lot of those hands.
It could go either way, but I think the first two shells are fine.
I think I give up on the river though because what hands are you trying to bluff off that called two streets? I don't think a strong Ax (which is probably the worst hand he has that calls the flop and the turn) is folding the river when they make trips either.
In theory a ten with a diamond might call/call/fold but I find it highly unlikely that JTo/QTo (since you have the Kd and the Ad is on board) are calling here preflop at all.
First of all thanks for ur input. After sleeping a night I think u are totaly right about the points you make. Do u think that a check on the turn was maybe a more optimal play instead of betting around 60% pot?
Hi nath,
Thank you for the input. I agree this was a punt and should have given up on the river. I found it really hard to put my opponent on any hand since i block ak and aq which i think are his only ax that are still around on the river (besides ats but I think he folds those some amount of times pre). So when i get to the river and i block the nut flush draw and the 2 combo's of ax that would call i thought i needed to shove here. I think u are right about the villain not folding enough on the river indeed.
What are your toughts on checking calling turn and giving up to a river bet?
