- Is my 3b a tad too big? Is clicking back just as effective in order to discourage action, particularly from the chip leader?
- After the chip leader clicks it, ICM wise I'm not sure what to do here.

UTG+1: 5.84 BB
MP: 17.92 BB
CO: 13.09 BB
Hero (BTN): 66.36 BB
SB: 20.86 BB
BB: 127.52 BB
UTG: 22.16 BB

7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.37 BB) Hero has J J

fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 6.5 BB, Hero raises to 15 BB, fold, BB raises to 24.5 BB, fold, [color=red]

No it’s not too big and this is a seriously sick spot with the cold 4!

I’d range BB click back raise as absurdly strong and think we can exploit fold. BB is shoving AK.

We can set mine here for 9.5 bb to win about 90 bb's with Implied Pot Odds. The risk is that we can be beaten by a larger set some extremely small % of the time. I would always get in on a QJx flop. I think I would also get it in on a KJx flop (though this one is questionable) and fold to a AJx flop. Any other Jxx flop I think we double up mostly.

I would not continue on a flop where there were only cards lower than a J even if it was T98 (again unless the bet was like really small).

As for bet sizing given that CO has only 13.09 bb's the ultimate sizing wouldn't matter in terms of the CO who is never folding anyway. I would probably make it 13.09 bb's (especially online where the exact amount would be obvious). But 15 bb's is fine. A standard 3-bet would be 19.5 bb's but there really is no point because all that does is risk more against the BB who can jam and make you fold.

I am also assuming we are already in the money.

I think with the stack distribution, fold and never tell anyone,
It's easy to just plan to play no set no bet but be harder when he bets 10% or 20%
We can fold and be comfortably 2nd , looks like the play

His hand screams of strength, call and try to set mine only, even if you fold after calling the 4 bet you'll still be 2nd in chips.

You'd assume he'd shove with AK so what exactly is he click raising here that you beat or crush? Not much.

Folding seems a bit tight considering it's only 9.5BB more.

Thanks for all the replies.

I'm not sure about the set mining line. But, it could be because my lack of tourney understanding specifically with the stack depth between BB and I.

I went the 3rd option route and jammed..... I do not have a great reason for this other than 1) hope he was trying to apply pressure on me since I was 2nd in chips and he had 2x my stack 2) he has enough AK/AQ

This was a regular tourney, not a PKO. So not sure if my reasoning is sound.

I think I made an ICM punt by jamming. BB had AA.

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You will hit a set on the flop about 12.5% of the time which means that you must be able to make more than 8x the pre-flop bet size. In this case you can make 10x the pre-flop bet size so it pays to try to hit the set. Against QQ+ you have about an 18% chance of winning if you go all in pre-flop and are called. That's why i think it makes much more sense to just call the min raise 4-bet.

However, having said this the issue is whether or not the implied odds can be capitalized on. So if the other guy would fold to a flop all in raise then its pot odds that would determine the benefit of calling. And of course there is an inbetween where you know there will be a cbet but not necessarily sure you can fully double up.

Because of the pre-flop sizing it looks like AA a lot and sometimes KK. So I wouldn't jam re-raise here at all.

I think the other issue of a 3-bet raise is that your second place lead will get reduced significantly if BB jams and you fold (which I would do). So I actually prefer just calling the 6 bb open raise. We don't give BB the easy option of jamming to at worst break even if you fold. And if BB just calls then yes we are against 2 players but one can't get us to fold and the other may just choose to check it down if they miss (again I am assuming we are in the money already).

Yeah, I think this is right. Given that CO should be committed nobody behind him should ever be light here. And this would be a huge ICM punt to get in bad. Puke, fold.

The thread title says final table. (Which is also why I don't like set mining, not just because it's a big chunk of your valuable stack but because you end up talking yourself too often into calling down or getting it in when you have an overpair. And again, huge ICM punt to get it wrong here.)

OP starts with 66bb and has committed 15bb. With 51bb behind facing a 9.5bb bet, the implied odds are 41.5:9.5 or 4.36:1. The pot odds are 46.875:9.5 or 4.93:1. The implied odds + pot odds are 9.29:1, making set mining a barely profitable endeavour in cEV even if we make the false assumptions that BB will stack off every time we make a set and our set is always good. Accounting for the risk premium of losing chips in an ICM environment, set mining here is not a good idea.

Set mining is +EV here, significantly in my opinion (7:1 implied odds + pot odds is break even and in this spot I think it would get all in on a Jxx flop most of the time). But I get that it isn't a good spot because of where it leaves us 87% of the time.

If my approach on this hand was that I would fold to a click it back minraise after my 3bet then I would never 3-bet. And if I wasn't 3-betting I probably would just call though I might fold anyway. I don't like the sizing of the original raise. It feels like a very strong hand and any 3-bet should have 0% fold equity. Which in my opinion ruins one of the reasons we 3-bet in the first place. My guess is that we would have less than 50% equity against the original raiser's range because with hands like 22-TT I think they would shove almost all of the time. Also any 3-bet gives BB the opportunity to get us to fold by 4-betting and at worst break even on the hand.

Now clearly all of my reasoning is possibly wrong here in this spot. The original raiser did fold pre-flop so no QQ+ and probably no AK. So no idea what the intent of the original raise at 6.5 bb's (half of effective stack) was unless he had a hand like AQ/SC/PP and wanted to be able to survive by folding after missing on the flop assuming BB called pre-flop. Or maybe wanted to be able to bluff after a miss on the flop (which to me is not good but whatever)

It might be +cEV, barely, but with the ICM factors you are putting too much of your stack at risk when you have a significant lead over everyone who isn't the chip leader. The chips you gain are not worth as much as the chips you lose.

I don't think you should ever fold JJ to the open here. I do think a smaller 3-bet would be effective. I'd just click it back to get the original raiser committed if it folds back to him. Not much difference here in how this hand played out, other than that you save 3.5BB that way.

It's a raise of half his stack; it's effectively a committing raise to go all-in, but one that gives the original raiser room to fold if the action behind gets crazy like it does here, because of the possibility of laddering up. I don't think it says much about his range specifically, other than that it's a range he's willing to jam.

I think you'd have to expect BB to have a light 4-betting range here for that to be a real worry, which should never be the case given that you're isolating a short stack to commit him all-in with your 3-bet. If you flat and then BB 3-bets, you've put yourself in a situation where you're guessing at his range more often and you may still be ahead. As played, I think it's rather clear you're not ahead of BB.

The point is that the original raiser is going to commit his stack unless multiple people start getting their money in behind him, in which case it's more profitable to fold and ladder up. This is a fairly common practice at final tables these days.

I don't think your analysis is giving much consideration to the final table situation, the pay jump effects and the ICM effects.

The problem is that BB can jam and we basically have to fold with JJ. I actually prefer to call because BB will possibly call with a wide range to try to eliminate CO and there will be a lot of flops where nobody bets.

Nobody got their chips in behind him when he folded. And nobody should have. So the original raiser cost himself half his stack and not only shouldn't have laddered up but could easily have laddered down.
For me the reason to not raise at all is to keep our 2nd place stack as big as possible. I don't think isolating the CO here is worth it because I don't think we are much above 50% vs the CO's range considering his pre-flop bet size. So we are basically risking 15 bb's to win 15 bb's by raising. Even if we raise to 13 bb's or min raise to 11.5 bb's we are still risking that full amount to a BB who can jam.

At the Venetian I played in a similar situation where I was in 3rd place with 7 players and I managed to get to 3rd place by not doing exactly this. The hand of significance was when there were 4 players left and the short stack went all in with like 4 or 5 bb's. I had A9s and could have raised (or jammed) and everyone would have folded. But I called instead and the BB who was the chip leader called as well. The BB blind checked the flop (probably to let me know we were trying to eliminate the short stack) and the flop was 875. I checked as well. On the turn, which was not a 6, the BB who had flopped 2 pair bet large and I folded. We ended up knocking out the short stack who had only 1 pair (which I wouldn't have done had I gotten it HU). That alone was worth $15,000.

I should have gotten to 2nd place but ended up getting knocked out all in pre-flop with AQ vs AT.

My preference in this spot is to not challenge the shortest stacks while the Chip Leader is in position to knock us out of the hand. I actively don't go up against the chip leader here in large pots until the shorter stacks have been knocked out.

Rick, the point of discussion in the last few posts was the decision when facing the 4-bet. When considering this decision, we assume the 3rd bet has already happened. Committing the extra 9.5bb to see a flop is not a profitable endeavour in terms of $EV due to ICM. You will perhaps make a small amount in cEV, an inferior model to ICM in tournaments.

The first decision in the hand, whether to flat or 3-bet (folding is not really an option, you are too far ahead of what is essentially a 13bb all-in from the 2nd shorted stack has an impetus to try and chip up in the near future), is close. Flatting seems fine since you'll be able to call the remaining 6.5bb on any flop should it go headsup and the OR shoves.

I suppose you can flat if the big stack in the big blind is smart enough to know your range is going to be strong there and isn't going to 3-bet you wide. I'm not sure why you'd want a covering stack to come along, though; it seems like it's just an opportunity to get yourself into a difficult situation postflop. Personally I like the click-back to ensure the cutoff is committed preflop.

I think you're going to need to demonstrate a range here that you think a 13BB CO is effectively shoving that JJ isn't better than 50% against.

I basically already did. QQ+/AK and maybe some AQs. I don't get why anyone would raise half their stack with 22-TT. For me its an auto shove with 13 bb and FE especially against BB the chip leader. It is conceivable that CO is messing around with some random SC or PP to try to make them look stronger than they are. So it could be a hand like KQs/QJs/JTs/88 or AT but that too just makes no sense to me. Why wouldn't they just open at 2x rather than 6.5x so they can fold to a 3-bet and still have 11bb's?

The way the hand started with CO raising half their stack basically is an indicator that they want to be all-in but is tempting BB to call. The only reason I would do that (and I would never do that) would be with AA or KK where we have a massive preflop advantage and want to get called to double up.

In all the years I have played tournaments I have almost never seen anybody do this. One player raised to 5x every time they raised so unless CO was raising every time to 6.5x this is an exceptional case. The only time I have ever seen this live it was AA wanting a pre-flop call.

I not only think that's way too tight, but I don't think that's how people play final table ranges at all. I think QQ+ is going to minraise, maybe some minraises to balance with hands like A8o/KTo that they can fold to a shove.

I already told you:


They're not intending to fold to one 3-bet. It's supposed to be a committing raise, but one where they can still get away from the hand if multiple people start putting money in behind them, which is exactly what happened here. CO moved up in pay by letting BT and BB go at it.

6.5BB and 50% of the raiser's stack is not really an enticement to call so much as a committing raise. An enticement to call is a minraise.

Watch one high-stakes tournament broadcast and I guarantee you you'll see players at the final table doing this fairly often instead of outright jamming.

I don't think any of your assumptions about the raise size are correct. Your anecdotes still don't tell me much about if you are seeing the difference between final table play and the rest of the tournament, and how much ICM makes it profitable at the final table to leave yourself a way out of the hand. If you haven't seen plays like this before... I dunno what to tell you. Study some of the top players and you'll see final table plays like this all the time.

Aside:

I think the biggest difference between your hand and OP's is that the short stack is already all-in, and you don't have to worry about getting him to commit his chips. That's why I like the click-back in OP's situation, to ensure the short stack gets his money in and doesn't fold postflop (or you don't fold if you get a scary flop, because you could still be ahead).

In the situation you describe, most of your range should be a flat-- a jam would only get called if someone wakes up behind you with a bigger hand than yours. I had a similar hand at my recent final table:

Yatahay Network - 400000/800000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 19.92 BB
BB: 69.03 BB
UTG: 16.06 BB
MP: 55.58 BB
CO: 10.17 BB
BTN: 5.8 BB

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has A J

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 5.7 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 5.2 BB, fold

Flop: (13.01 BB, 2 players) 2 6 6

Turn: (13.01 BB, 2 players) Q

River: (13.01 BB, 2 players) J

Hero shows A J (Two Pair, Jacks and Sixes)
(Pre 72%, Flop 72%, Turn 77%)
BTN shows A 3 (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 28%, Flop 28%, Turn 23%)
Hero wins 13.01 BB

I would flat most of my range here-- the jams might be something like TT-JJ (and maybe QQ), AK, maybe AQ. I don't think, holding AJo, that BB is rejamming a hand worse than mine; almost all of his rejamming range dominates me, and if I jam, I'm only getting called by hands that dominate me. So I just flat here, which shows that I'm strong enough to take the all-in player to showdown. But I would also flat KK+ (and maybe QQ) and then call off if BB rejammed.

Since I rarely stop thinking and wanted to clarify:

What I mean by this is, a story of a guy who consistently raised 5x doesn't really apply much to someone raising for half their stack at the final table, or why they would do it.

I think the core issue though is just that you're not familiar with the final table strategy of raising enough to commit to an all-in against one player but fold if multiple people raise and re-raise behind you.

In this case, I think the CO is trying to raise enough to show he's committed and maximize his fold equity, but still get out of the hand if something happens like it did here, in particular because UTG+1 is so short. Busting before UTG+1 is not good for CO, but he's also so short he can't just play tight and wait for UTG to bust.

Anyway, it's a real strategy you'll see high-level players take at final tables pretty frequently. Now, I don't know what the buyin to this tournament is and we're provided no reads on the CO, but if I saw this line at a final table absent any other information I would assume the CO is using this strategy.

It is posted as a mid level tournament, so whatever that means to you. It does not appear to be a high roller tournament.

I rarely see people bet out half their stack and fold, when they are second to last in chips. When a short stack early position player does this, it is normally a monster (AA, Kk) and the player doesn't just to waste a premium hand and only pick up only 2.5 bbs by shoving and getting no callers.