Final 3 in PKO, we have biggest pko, I am wondering if there is just too much ICM pressure and we must fold and just wait small stack to burst or is our flush draw and overcard good enough to go for win in PKO where first place gets so much more then 2nd place.
All our outs should be alive (clubs and Aces as I expect him not have AQ/AJ in his range after he flat preflop, my expectation is good Qx/sometimes 2p, sometimes combo draw like gutshot+flush draw) so we have direct odds and sometimes he have lower draw and we crush him, so we probably have around exactly or few % more then 44% we need on average.

Hold'em No Limit - 25,000/50,000 (6,250 ante) - 3 players

Hero (BU): 1,485,421 (30 bb)
Player1 (SB): 1,381,641 (28 bb)
Player2 (BB): 432,938 (9 bb)

Pre-Flop: (93,750) Hero (Hero) is BTN with 3 A
Hero (BU) raises to 100,000, Player1 (SB) calls 75,000, Player2 (BB) calls 50,000

Flop: (318,750) J 7 Q (3 players)
Player1 (SB) bets 1,275,391 (all-in), Player2 (BB) folds, Hero (BU) ???

to me it's a call

Im folding, need 44% for pure cEV and with ICM, likely need an extra 7-8% as a estimate


Removed some offsuit combos of AQ/KQ to account for some 3betting preflop

I want to add that this is a spot where the bounty size of villain and the remaining payouts really matter. I think in a regular tournament it's just a fold, unfortunately-- even if you occasionally luck out against something like KcTc or Tc9c, you're mostly getting it in with 12 outs, and that's a ton of chips to put on the line in a spot that more often than not will result in you finishing third when you have such a clear path to locking up at least second (and, presumably, having a chance to win that bounty anyway playing villain heads-up).

Here, though, the bounty might be big enough to make the combination of winning it + guaranteeing second place money (and having almost a 10:1 lead heads-up) worth it. But the actual numbers here really matter for figuring that out.

Payouts and pko numbers would help give us some idea but yeah if this wasnt a pko then it would be a fold with the risk premium on us when bb is that short.