readless on villain

PKO MTT villain had 80 bounty in $33 tourney

Yatahay Network - 140000/280000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 64.72 BB
CO: 52.13 BB
BTN: 8.43 BB
SB: 37.65 BB
BB: 32.88 BB
Hero (UTG): 40.86 BB
UTG+1: 25.84 BB

7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.37 BB) Hero has A 9

Hero raises to 2.1 BB, fold, MP calls 2.1 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.6 BB, BB calls 1.1 BB

Flop: (9.27 BB, 4 players) 3 J A
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 4.62 BB, fold, SB calls 4.62 BB, fold

Turn: (18.52 BB, 2 players) 9
SB checks, Hero bets 12.22 BB, SB raises to 30.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 18.58 BB

River: (80.12 BB, 2 players) 5

SB shows 3 3 (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 51%, Flop 98%, Turn 91%)
Hero shows A 9 (Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
(Pre 49%, Flop 2%, Turn 9%)
SB wins 80.12 BB

Super gross spot but he can have J9 and A3. I'm not folding.

Can't have JJ or AA, only one combo of 99, plenty of combo draws he can have but can't have a made flush or straight, and multiple different worse two pairs. No way to fold this without a great read, starting less than 40 bigs deep.

Thanks for the answers. I know this is an easy call in theory, but wasnt sure if it was an ICM punt because of the stacks.

Pretty sure halfpotting flop 4way isn't good.

What do you prefer? CBet sizing multi-way vs HU.

Ya I mean idk if the half pot is really a thing on aj3 but it’s not like -ev or anything. Idk either if the amount of players in the pot affects sizing here there’s not really any good ways to calculate the ev loss or gain in multi way spots. I do think the smaller size gets used but it’s more of a function of hand strength than # of players in the pot

I was thinking x flop.

Hero is betting 40% of effective stack on the turn. This is a Pot committing bet. I don't believe Villain is ever bluffing here with virtually no FE.

Also, Villain shouldn't have A3o here with 37 bb's pre-flop why would he be calling from the SB? Similarly with J9o.

There are some 2 pair we beat (A3s & J9s for up to 5 combos) and some sets we lose to (3 combos) but we also lose to AJ (up to 6 combos).

With no reads on Villain I think we have to call the turn shove as we are getting > 3:1 pot odds and actual odds of losing are < 2:1.

If we bet 3 bb's on the flop and 9 bb's on the turn it would be more interesting. It would be 26 bb's to win 49 bb's if Villain shoves. Still getting basically the right price but not by much... Personally I have a hard time letting go of two pair here.

edit: I prefer betting 3 bb's on the flop than checking. Assuming we get any callers I would check through most turns unless we improve and call down most rivers.

Don't think this is a good flop to bet but fine with getting it in on turn as played

+1

+1

what is significance of ft in terms of payout structure?

would icm be as relevant here given the game dynamics of pko and on bubble? seems like getting his bounty and a solid position to ship it is worth the downside of not making ft at all or the inaction of hitting ft with a shove or fold stack size

depending on the structure, thee also could be more money in the bounties than in the tournament itself

HU would typically be a big bet IP vs wide range of blinds on this board for around 40bb eff. Multiway would be around 1/3 only for value/protection. Shouldn't really have any bluffs here into 3 players

as played, post flop, I think its fine, although we do need to know payouts to really render a decision. I know you did not ask, and nobody commented on this, but Im chucking A9 suited UTG with 7 players in almost all early to mid stages of tourney, and am certainly doing it here.