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Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion

03-28-2011 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmbreslin
This might be one of those situations where ICM is wrong because stack sizes are so small. If SB is calling tight enough that he's a non-factor, and BB is calling very wide, hero is getting his small stack in well ahead of villain's range. It's not like hero will have an easy time outlasting SB here if he folds. This will most likely be his best shot to get his money in good before the blinds put him all in before the other shortie.
I agree that the SB calling range is a non-factor(it doesnt change our ICM shoving range more than a couple % when we alter this from 5%-40%)

Since ICM can be wrong in unique situations, lets assume that this is one of those situations and try not to focus on the exact equities. Instead lets try to decide if pushing with A6 here gives us the best chance at survival.

If we push A6 here lets assume that BB calls 100% of his range.
Putting in A6o into pokerstove against a random shows we bust 40.41% of the time.

Of course BB will fold a small percentage of the time. Another possibility is that we shove A6-> sb and bb both call-> bb will scoop giving us 5th place. Lets say these BB folding and BB busting SB+Hero happens 10% of the time.

Subtracting the 10% from the 40.41%(BB calls & busts just us) we bust in 6th ~30% of the time by shoving A6.

So if we fold A6 here, can we get ITM 70% of the time?
Thats whats up for debate.
Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
03-28-2011 , 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lythande71
I use two lines.

1st) VP$IP, PFR, AF, #hands [over all collected hands]
2nd) VP$IP, PFR, #hands, notes-icon [only hands for current blind phase]

to simplify things I just grouped blind levels into 3 phases. Low blind phase BB<=60, mid blind phase BB<=150, high blind phase BB>150.

This way I have a decent read for both
a) players I haven't played a lot
b) regs for which I have collected enough hands so that line 2 provides a better read on them

And pls, dont ask me how to define the 2nd line. Its quite a bit configuration work and does not belong in this thread
Can this be done with both HM and PT3?
Info or thread link on how to achieve this HUD?
Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
03-28-2011 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnniewalk
Can this be done with both HM and PT3?
Info or thread link on how to achieve this HUD?
Dont know about HEM. I did it with PT3. I have a thread ongoing in their forum since this bites with some color coding that i use. But i described basic idea and approach there.
Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
03-28-2011 , 10:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnniewalk
So if we fold A6 here, can we get ITM 70% of the time?
Thats whats up for debate.
I highly doubt it. You have 3 more hands until you hit the blinds again, at which point the BB will take half your remaining stack. Sure it's possible you'll wake up with a big pair in the next few hands and double through, and it's also possible the other shortie gets it in and busts, but I just can't see your likelihood of surviving being as high as 70% there.
Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
03-28-2011 , 10:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnniewalk
So if we fold A6 here, can we get ITM 70% of the time?
Thats whats up for debate.
Currently, folding this and the next 4 hands will cost us 650 chips, so when the shortstack currently in the SB is set all-in by his next big blind, we will have 335 chips left (the blinds going up in the meantime won't make a fundamental difference, right?). We can fold our way through and hope he busts right there 70% of the time, which he might if the others play it correctly. But if he finds a spot to get it in with A6 against only the bigstack, or if the others don't know to call and check-down his all-in, winning 70% won't be easy. And: does it matter if the blinds go up in between? And how sure are we that we don't have any fold equity? BB should call atc, but maybe he folds 20% of the time. That would be 20% where we can comfortably fold the rest of the way.

I think its close.
Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
03-29-2011 , 12:51 AM
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $100 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8550362

MP: 1,925 (9.6 bb)
CO: 2,705 (13.5 bb)
BTN: 710 (3.6 bb)
Hero (SB): 1,025 (5.1 bb)
BB: 4,660 (23.3 bb)
UTG: 3,975 (19.9 bb)

Preflop: (150) Hero is SB with K 7
4 folds, Hero raises to 1,000 and is all-in, BB calls 800

Flop: (2,150) Q T 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (2,150) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (2,150) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Reads BB is competent but has not been at all aggressive with his big stack.
BTN is solid reg.

What should hero have done?
Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
03-29-2011 , 04:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lythande71
I use two lines.

1st) VP$IP, PFR, AF, #hands [over all collected hands]
2nd) VP$IP, PFR, #hands, notes-icon [only hands for current blind phase]

to simplify things I just grouped blind levels into 3 phases. Low blind phase BB<=60, mid blind phase BB<=150, high blind phase BB>150.

This way I have a decent read for both
a) players I haven't played a lot
b) regs for which I have collected enough hands so that line 2 provides a better read on them

And pls, dont ask me how to define the 2nd line. Its quite a bit configuration work and does not belong in this thread
Hi
as you asked I do not ask you how to define the 2nd line. Still, just can you please confirm if this is HEM ot PT, and if HEM, also please say if this is not a default feature, but something extra "home-made"? Filtering hands based on BB level (and not based on stack in BB as available today in the Tourney HUD stat) is something long-awaited feature, would be specially useful for SnGs.
Many thanks
Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
03-29-2011 , 04:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pastecopy
Hi
as you asked I do not ask you how to define the 2nd line. Still, just can you please confirm if this is HEM ot PT, and if HEM, also please say if this is not a default feature, but something extra "home-made"? Filtering hands based on BB level (and not based on stack in BB as available today in the Tourney HUD stat) is something long-awaited feature, would be specially useful for SnGs.
Many thanks
Sorry, skipped your previous answer
Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
03-29-2011 , 08:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pastecopy
Hi
as you asked I do not ask you how to define the 2nd line. Still, just can you please confirm if this is HEM ot PT, and if HEM, also please say if this is not a default feature, but something extra "home-made"? Filtering hands based on BB level (and not based on stack in BB as available today in the Tourney HUD stat) is something long-awaited feature, would be specially useful for SnGs.
Many thanks
thanks for your interest in that. As stated before i did it with PT3, ie. yes, it is not a built in feature and therefore most parts are homemade and indeed filtered based on BB level.

But PT3 offers a Built-In Feature to only show stats from the current blind level - allthough this does not accumulate or group different blind levels into only three blind level phases (LBP, MBP, HBP).

Don't now about HEM though. If you usually use HEM you could use the trial period offered by PT3 to see if this built-in-feature already fulfills your needs.
But its only a yes/no checkbox, i.e. u can only have either the blind level filtered once or the total stats in the HUD. Not both at the same time.
Hence leaving you readless if you haven't collected enough hands for each player and each blind level.

Both limitations lead me to create custom stats and some tricks to display the current blind level phase only together with the total stats.

Yes i find it very usefull especially for SNGs. right now I am not sure if I want to elaborate this idea and approach further here on 2+2. Its not rocket science, but as stated earlier its quite a lot configuration work needed.
I will certainly not have the time to write a user-friendly HowTo-Guide or support you if anything went wrong. Plus I dont want to get in trouble with the mods for jamming a strategy thread with that somewhat technical stuff.

But at the same time I want to contribute as much as I can to this forum that has helped me a lot developing my poker game over the last years.

So, here is the general approach in very short hopefully not too technical terms:
- create a column for each BL-phase that sums up the hands for the specific blind levels using BB-variable (amt_var_bb) as condition, like cnt_hands_lbp, cnt_hands_mbp, cnt_hands_hbp
- create columns for each stat that you want being filtered, using the same BB condition as for counting hands, those columns could be named like cnt_vpip_lbp, cnt_vpip_mbp, cnt_pfr_hbp and so on
- Duplicate all stats that you want to show filtered and define them for each blind level phase, e.g. VP$IP_LBP, VP$IP_HBP...PFR_LBP, PFR_MBP...using the columns that you have just created above as expression, e.g.(cnt_vpip_lbp / cnt_hands_lbp) * 100 for VP$IP_LBP
-Define another Stat that holds the Current Value of that stat, lets name this ones VP$IP_Cur, PFR_Cur....use the format-setting-tab of these stats to choose which one to display, again using BB-variable as conditions, e.g. VP$IP_Cur holds VP$IP_LBP if BB less than 60-----i guess you already get the idea

All this definition work should be done in PT3-Section "tournament player statistics"

If you have a general understanding of how PT3 custom stats work this shouldn't be a challenge to you, just donkey work. The syntax is well described in their online-tutorials.

It is likely that this can be achieved with HEM as well, as long as HEM also offers customizable stats similar to PT3.

Over and out on that topic - seriously - at least within this strat thread
Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
03-29-2011 , 09:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnniewalk

Subtracting the 10% from the 40.41%(BB calls & busts just us) we bust in 6th ~30% of the time by shoving A6.

So if we fold A6 here, can we get ITM 70% of the time?
Thats whats up for debate.
I doubt the 70% figure, it implies that SB calls (at least) 10% and with the BB (correctly) calling pretty wide here there is no way SB is putting it in 10% of the time, i think the question should be do we cash 62% of the time if we fold here...
Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
03-29-2011 , 10:55 AM
it may look like a std move..but thinking that the CL who open push is a reg who is pushing 100% there for sure and if we double up we can dispute CL with him... what u guys can think of this play and ranges of calling?





    Poker Stars, $30 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8582342

    MP: 543 (2.7 bb)
    CO: 3,856 (19.3 bb)
    BTN: 5,936 (29.7 bb)
    Hero (SB): 1,457 (7.3 bb)
    BB: 1,320 (6.6 bb)
    UTG: 1,888 (9.4 bb)

    Preflop: (150) Hero is SB with K Q
    3 folds, BTN raises to 5,911 and is all-in, Hero



    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
    Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
    03-29-2011 , 11:01 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Eldorian
    I doubt the 70% figure, it implies that SB calls (at least) 10% and with the BB (correctly) calling pretty wide here there is no way SB is putting it in 10% of the time, i think the question should be do we cash 62% of the time if we fold here...
    The 10% includes the times where sb folds and bb folds, which i guesstimated would be around 8/9%. Plus the times where sb calls, bb calls, and bb scoops is probably 1/2%ish. i just added these two situations together to get the 10%.
    Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
    03-29-2011 , 11:02 AM
    another one of minicashing





      Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (125/250 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8582352

      BB: 6,545 (26.2 bb)
      UTG: 710 (2.8 bb)
      Hero (MP): 1,110 (4.4 bb)
      CO: 4,255 (17 bb)
      BTN: 1,650 (6.6 bb)
      SB: 730 (2.9 bb)

      Preflop: (180) Hero is MP with K Q
      UTG folds, HERO?



      Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.







        Poker Stars, $30 Buy-in (125/250 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8582362

        Hero (UTG): 1,495 (6 bb)
        MP: 3,225 (12.9 bb)
        CO: 230 (0.9 bb)
        BTN: 2,790 (11.2 bb)
        SB: 1,745 (7 bb)
        BB: 5,515 (22.1 bb)

        Preflop: (180) Hero is UTG with 8 8
        Hero ??



        Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.



        what u guys think about wider opening ranges in bubble to take advantage of the format, even with really short stacks in play?
        Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
        03-29-2011 , 11:03 AM
        Quote:
        Originally Posted by Lythande71

        If you have a general understanding of how PT3 custom stats work this shouldn't be a challenge to you, just donkey work. The syntax is well described in their online-tutorials.

        It is likely that this can be achieved with HEM as well, as long as HEM also offers customizable stats similar to PT3.

        Over and out on that topic - seriously - at least within this strat thread
        Thank you so much for it. I am not sure this can be 100% adapted to HEM, however I will give a try. Your attitude to give back something to this forum (as you write) is really nice. It is a good lesson to learn for a newcomer as I am. Many thanks!
        Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
        03-29-2011 , 12:34 PM
        Quote:
        Originally Posted by kzk
        another one of minicashing





          Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (125/250 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8582352

          BB: 6,545 (26.2 bb)
          UTG: 710 (2.8 bb)
          Hero (MP): 1,110 (4.4 bb)
          CO: 4,255 (17 bb)
          BTN: 1,650 (6.6 bb)
          SB: 730 (2.9 bb)

          Preflop: (180) Hero is MP with K Q
          UTG folds, HERO?



          Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.







            Poker Stars, $30 Buy-in (125/250 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8582362

            Hero (UTG): 1,495 (6 bb)
            MP: 3,225 (12.9 bb)
            CO: 230 (0.9 bb)
            BTN: 2,790 (11.2 bb)
            SB: 1,745 (7 bb)
            BB: 5,515 (22.1 bb)

            Preflop: (180) Hero is UTG with 8 8
            Hero ??



            Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.



            what u guys think about wider opening ranges in bubble to take advantage of the format, even with really short stacks in play?
            Both are really close. I ran the numbers and tightened up the opponents calling ranges and ICM says shove both.

            The 88 table: is a fold IMO. This table is likely to close soon since one player has under 1bb. The super shortie will likely get his stack in against multiple players and bust in 6th. Even if shortie triples up you still have some fold equity to make a steal.

            The KQ table: Shove. It is likely that the blinds go through you a couple of times, so you will need those extra survival chips. I also think that the BB called you with the bottom of his range, unless he is a reg.


            shove the KQ and fold the 88.
            Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
            03-29-2011 , 02:09 PM
            Not sure if there is much practicality to thinking about this, but probably more for fun...

            Very first hand of a Fifty50, you are on the big blind and every single player pushes all in ahead of you...what is your correct calling/pushing range?

            Same question except there are now 6 players all with equal stacks (2500). You are on the big blind and everyone pushes all in ahead of you...what is your correct calling/pushing range?
            Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
            03-29-2011 , 02:52 PM
            Quote:
            Originally Posted by HyperionMark
            Very first hand of a Fifty50, you are on the big blind and every single player pushes all in ahead of you...what is your correct calling/pushing range?
            AA KK

            ~1.5 BI guaranteed
            >25% chance of 6 BI vs 9 random hands = call

            don't think the bb or split pots will make very much difference

            Last edited by sputum; 03-29-2011 at 02:53 PM. Reason: ranges for second one?
            Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
            03-29-2011 , 03:02 PM
            Quote:
            Originally Posted by sputum
            AA KK

            ~1.5 BI guaranteed
            >25% chance of 6 BI vs 9 random hands = call

            don't think the bb or split pots will make very much difference
            He never specified that the players did it blind or have random hands.
            Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
            03-29-2011 , 03:40 PM
            Quote:
            Originally Posted by HyperionMark
            Not sure if there is much practicality to thinking about this, but probably more for fun...

            Very first hand of a Fifty50, you are on the big blind and every single player pushes all in ahead of you...what is your correct calling/pushing range?

            Same question except there are now 6 players all with equal stacks (2500). You are on the big blind and everyone pushes all in ahead of you...what is your correct calling/pushing range?
            first let's just assume they are all doing it blind...then maybe we can discuss it with their individual ranges after that
            Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
            03-29-2011 , 04:35 PM
            First of all Hyperion I want to thank you for the headache I now have

            Case 1

            Assumptions 100+4.32 tourney,no results that end up in ties

            If you fold you are guaranteed profit 100+1470/100>3.33-104.62=44.63

            If you call and lose that implies you will be in a 9-way tie for cashing with 0 chips and end up with 400/9 or a cash of 44.44 or a net loss of 44.44-104.32=-59.88

            If you call and win you end up a profit of 600.00-104.32=495.18

            If I did the algebra correctly(big IF) that means you'd have to win more than 18.8% of the time.

            Running this in pokerstove says only JJ+,AQs+,AKo are a call


            Case 2

            Clearly the calling range must be tighter the details are left to anyone interested
            Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
            03-29-2011 , 05:39 PM
            Quote:
            Originally Posted by Joshfan
            He never specified that the players did it blind or have random hands.
            my post was a huge pile of fail as it happens. I never took enough time on it.

            o well
            Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
            03-29-2011 , 08:31 PM
            Quote:
            Originally Posted by kzk
            it may look like a std move..but thinking that the CL who open push is a reg who is pushing 100% there for sure and if we double up we can dispute CL with him... what u guys can think of this play and ranges of calling?





              Poker Stars, $30 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8582342

              MP: 543 (2.7 bb)
              CO: 3,856 (19.3 bb)
              BTN: 5,936 (29.7 bb)
              Hero (SB): 1,457 (7.3 bb)
              BB: 1,320 (6.6 bb)
              UTG: 1,888 (9.4 bb)

              Preflop: (150) Hero is SB with K Q
              3 folds, BTN raises to 5,911 and is all-in, Hero



              Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
              This one is an easy fold for me on instinct as MP is on life support and about to go through the blinds in 2 hands. KQo just seems a bit too marginal to call off my chips with a player so short.

              Just ran it through Nash and even though BTN should be shoving 100%, it has us calling only 8.6% and KQo is just out of that range (KQs is included).
              Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
              03-29-2011 , 08:37 PM
              Quote:
              Originally Posted by johnniewalk
              shove the KQ and fold the 88.
              The 88 is an easy fold for me but the KQ is close. Hero has 2 bigstacks to get through and doubling through isn't going to make a massive difference in terms of his tourney equity. It's one of those situations where your stack is so small that the benefits of doubling through may be offset by the equity loss from busting, especially when you factor in how KQ stacks up against the calling ranges of the bigstacks.
              Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
              03-29-2011 , 08:51 PM
              Not sure if this one is trivial or not. Villain had been pretty active on the bubble in terms of open-raising, obviously looking to chip up before the shortie dies. This was the first time I had seen him shove-3B though. Probably still trying to chip up, but is it worth the risk with a shortie on life support and my stack sitting at 2.5 BI?

              PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 5.3 Tournament, 30/60 Blinds (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

              Hero (CO) (t4580)
              Button (t1110)
              SB (t365)
              BB (t1830)
              UTG (t4265)
              MP (t2850)

              Hero's M: 50.89

              Preflop: Hero is CO with J, J
              UTG calls t60, 1 fold, Hero bets t180, 2 folds, BB raises to t1830 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ???
              Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote
              03-29-2011 , 09:19 PM
              Quote:
              Originally Posted by iluvsheesh
              First of all Hyperion I want to thank you for the headache I now have

              Case 1

              Assumptions 100+4.32 tourney,no results that end up in ties

              If you fold you are guaranteed profit 100+1470/100>3.33-104.62=44.63

              If you call and lose that implies you will be in a 9-way tie for cashing with 0 chips and end up with 400/9 or a cash of 44.44 or a net loss of 44.44-104.32=-59.88

              If you call and win you end up a profit of 600.00-104.32=495.18

              If I did the algebra correctly(big IF) that means you'd have to win more than 18.8% of the time.

              Running this in pokerstove says only JJ+,AQs+,AKo are a call


              Case 2

              Clearly the calling range must be tighter the details are left to anyone interested
              haha, good work! ya i would think tighter but probably not by much right? maybe JJ+ and AKs?
              Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion Quote

                    
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