Quote:
Originally Posted by bbfg
I haven't played one yet but I think it's an interesting format to discuss, where too many dynamics are playing to really solve it imo, but I could be totally wrong. But assume this spot in a 5$ fitty fitty
Blinds 300/600/60
UTG 1500
MP 1484
CO 2000
D 1016
SB 6000
BB 3500
It might help to look at some general ideas?
Figures:
Moneying is worth $4.50. 100 chips are worth 16c (22.5/135).
So take UTG. Let's make his stack 1560 for convenience. If he doubles, he gains 15 x 0.16 = $2.50. Winning the blinds and antes is worth $1.50.
So he is going to need everyone to fold a bit more than half the time if he shoves if he has a 50/50 with anyone who calls. They'd need to be decently tight for that. If you shoved wide, you'd need people to be obscenely tight because you lose so much when busted. Even if he was called by a shorter stack and lost, he would lose a ton of equity, because very short stacks cannot have much equity in this game at high blinds.
As your position gets later, you could shove progressively looser, but you'd still need to be tight because even if villains were very risk averse, you still need them to fold a lot to gain enough equity to make up for the downside of being called.
Say you had AQ. You're a dog against tight calling ranges:
Hand 0: 55.911% 49.36% 06.55% 791107164 104992170.00 { 77+, ATs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 44.089% 37.54% 06.55% 601625040 104992170.00 { AQo }
Your chances of being called by this range if you're utg and everyone calls with it are 32%.
50/50 with this kind of calling range:
Hand 0: 49.668% 44.80% 04.86% 1049481876 113953680.00 { 55+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 50.332% 45.47% 04.86% 1065042636 113953680.00 { AQo }
Your chances for this range are 47%.
AQ isn't a huge favourite against a 15% range. A loose player in the big stack could well call that:
Hand 0: 45.617% 41.82% 03.80% 1426291200 129658092.00 { 33+, A7s+, KJs+, A8o+, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 54.383% 50.58% 03.80% 1725302184 129658092.00 { AQo
This adds 5% to your chance of being called, of course.
I think that if you have a big stack, like SB here, you can call loose. You don't risk your tournament equity because of the stack setup (you are not going to finish out of the money much more often with say 4.5K chips than you would with 6K chips) and you probably don't gain much in tourney equity either. But you risk $2.50 vs UTG to win $4 so you should call appropriately loose vs his range. He should be shoving tight, so obv. "loose" is relative. It's an interesting question whether he should shove over if button shoves, or pass and hope button doubles. If UTG were a bit deeper, I think it would be closer. As it stands, I think he should probably shove over. If he wins, the game ends, but he acquires extra chips. If he loses, the bubble stays alive. There's no guarantee BB wouldn't win if he folded, so it's not the same spot as being in the SB on a 9man bubble with a microshorty in the BB.
I think big stack can and should shove ATC into BB and BB is going to have to fold everything. He can and should also shove ATC into everyone else except button as far as I can see, because button blinds out next time.
I think BB should call stacks other than button tight. 1/ They will be shoving tight and 2/ he can pay his blind comfortably and still coast into the money. If button doesn't blind out, others are also very short, so he's in a good spot as far as that goes. However, he should gamble against button. He damages his tourney equity some by calling, but he's rewarded for it.
Just thoughts off the top of my head. I'd be interested to know how far off I am!