My main was miserable. Just super card dead and could only win a couple small pots busted lvl 5 shoving 5k with AJ and losing a flip. I legitimately looked a 95o and Q3o each 5 times and my premiums were TT once (shoved 4500 into AA and doubled), JJ once (won with a flop bet), KK once (won with a flop bet), AA once (won with a flop bet), AK once (won blinds), AQ twice (got 3bet once and folded flop and shoved 12k into AJ and chopped). 7 premiums in 8:30 of play.

Here are a couple hands I got to play with medium strength hands... I lose all of them but did I do anything wrong or just run horribly.


Hand 1: Level 2 200/300/300. Villain is a rec who has been a payoff wizard and is down to 17k (60k starting). Getting visibly tilted and seems close to reaching the "**** it zone". This is the biggest pot I lost.

I open KTs from the LJ to 800 and only villain calls in the sb. Flop is KTs8s. I bet 1400 into 2200. Villain calls. Turn KTs8sJ. I bet 3k into 5k. Villain jams ~15k. Hero sigh calls. Anyone finding a hero fold here with all of the draws and possible worse two pairs? Villain has AQo which I discounted because I expected a 3bet from that hand at least some of the time.

Hand 2: Level 3 200/400/400. Villain is new to the table but appears a be a Euro pro of some kind.

LJ opens, hj calls, villain calls in co, I defend bb with T7s. Flop 8s9sJs. Checks to villain who bets 1/3 pot. I call everyone else folds. Turn 8s9sJsT. I c/c another 1/3 pot bet. River is a blank and I c/c another 1/3 pot bet and villain has KsQ. Can we find a river fold with the dummy end here or do we just have to pay off that sizing and hope hes value betting a set of something?

Hand 3: 10 handed tight UTG open, solid UTG+1 flats, folds to hero on the button with 77 and we have 22bb. Do we jam here or flat and see a flop? I flatted and probed a 9 hi flop and lost to J9 from the blinds. The utg had AK and I would have doubled if I jammed pre but Im pretty sure 77 is behind his opening range and the utg+1 flatting range.

Hand 1: You describe Villain as a 'payoff wizard'. Does that mean he is mostly passive and a calling station? Most in this player type don't get aggressive with medium strength, they just want to get to showdown to see if they are good. Also, is he positionally aware? Does he know what a SB flatting range looks like? I get the sigh call, but if you are on your game, and make the right read here about this V, then you can get away. Notice also that you have a ton of value that would beat his bad 2P combos, since you have all AQ, 4 Q9s, and all the sets. Jamming JT seems suicidal. I get that he might have some big combo draw, and your read that he might be near the fukk it stage puts more of that in his range.

Hand 2: I doubt you will see any sets in his range; you have a pure bluff catcher here. You do have a blocker to the flush which is nice, but I think most of Villain's 1/3 river sizing is not a flush, so that might be of dubious value. Still, for 1/3 pot, I doubt you are making a huge error.

Hand 3: Never jamming, since a tight UTG-1 (if he is tight, he probably realizes that he needs to be even tighter here) is never ahead and we have poorish equity vs that range.

Sounds like you were just dealt a series of second place hands. Tournament poker is like that.

7 premiums in 8 hours? Sounds like a dream. Hand 3 you can probably just fold.

All fairly brutal (reminding me of my first three Main events...)

Hand 1 I don't think I would fold the turn as played (because this is a particular problem for me - being way ahead and then falling behind I have a hard time letting go - but I do think its a bet/fold spot because I would expect semi-bluffs on the flop) but I think I check back the turn (because some draws got there as did KJ) and then call the river bet trying to induce bluffs from flush draws and even value bets from JT. I like the sizing of the flop bet. Still I don't think the turn bet is bad as it will get value from flush draws (or a fold that could save you).

Hand 2 is also tough. Once the T hits the turn I would consider folding because Villain can have a flush or Q and we are drawing dead. But hard to fold the straight into a 1/3 pot bet. Bigger question is why would villain bet 3 streets on a monotone/4 to a straight board with a set? I guess villain can be bluffing with Ax/Kx but why would he call with those kind of hands if they weren't suited? And I don't think AJ/KJ (or T) would be betting the river

Hand 3 is not a good spot to jam IMO. UTG range is going to have a lot of 99+ pairs that will call and even if UTG folds for some reason UTG+1 may have a hand like AQ/JJ/TT that would call it off. But having said that I have jammed a number of times and can't remember winning. Mostly it was pair over pair and sometimes AK and I lost the flip. I also can't remember getting UTG to fold unless UTG was opening early a lot. Recently every time this comes up with a middle pair in SB (77-TT) people are saying just call and set mine.

Nothing but empathy for you here. The only thing I caught at this year's WSOP was COVID.

H1 I'd only fold with a live read telling me I'm beat.

H2 I'm shutting down once the T hits. If I call turn then I'm going to call river as well (barring a s or board pairing card), so I usually decide OTT how much I like my made hands.

H3 - just call. Some days you end up sitting by the pool much sooner than you want.

Seems to be a reasonable frequency of premiums, but it's unfortunate if those were the only playable hands in 8 hours.

Hand 1: That's a chunky flop/turn sizing, so it makes it easier for you to weight his turn cr to value. I also agree with @3for3poker that such players are usually passive with mid-strength. I think a fold is OK in the ME, especially when you consider the number of sd combos that get there on a J turn.

Hand 2: Can construct some thin turn V range that may continue betting e.g. AsAx but I think we can dump this on the river, as Qx seems minimum holding.

Hand 3: Prob a pf error, I'd jam 99+ AQ+ and fold everything else (maybe flat AA, some QQ, some ATs but w/e)

As an aside, I watched most of this year's ME PokerGO coverage and if there was a population tendency / potential exploit, it was the transparent strong value whenever the defender check-raised. I think we can fold Hand 1, even though it's so tough to do when you finally flop top top and get the green light. If anyone in Australia is intending to play the APL millions $1500 ME in August, there's a very similar pop tendency there.- When recs check raise in a large field life-important mtt, they almost always have strong value.

Yea it felt more card dead in the moment and I did have a rush after dinner of AQ, AK, KK, AA in one orbit ... I was just down to 10k at that point and the results were a allin chop v AJ, raise and take utg, 3bet btn v ep and win on the flop, bb defended and folded flop. But when I opened a medium hand we went 3-4 ways to the flop and I bricked, and that happened a lot. But yea I wouldnt be complaining if I bagged even a starting stack

Sometimes it just isnt your day... On the Friday afterwards I decided to play Razz since I was so good at making bad hands and ended up cashing .


First hand is close, probably a mistake. I tend to agree that people are under aggro for their tourney life in a big event like this but I also just thought he could have JTo, J8s and several pair+fd combos and even a hand like AA or AK thats "springing the trap". He had been getting sucked out on a lot and paying off and I thought he would overplay medium value to "protect his hand" from the draws, but maybe thats only something recs do in the $1700s and lower that Im used to.

Second hand I agree is a mistake and in the moment was the one hand that I was certain I misplayed.

Third hand, Im surprised to see people say fold but I was certain in the moment that jamming was a punt vs those ranges. The bb was a loose rec so I knew we were going 4 ways to flop, seems like a decent setmine spot despite only 22bb and we sometimes win other ways.

Your point about the medium strength hand that see the flop 4 ways is an important one. Your ability to cash in on hands like AJo and 99 on those flops is next to nil, unless you smash. In my experience that is just part of very deep stacked tournament play. People want to see flops. You won't ever have a range that has so much equity that you can just cbet range and print ev. You will seldom be able to bluff through on hands that don't have showdown value, so just be resigned to losing more of those pots, with the reward that when you do hit, the pots will already be bigger to start...

Trying to play hands that can make the nuts, or flop strong draws, and trying to play more in position is extra important in these spots.

Hand 1: It's rarely a worse value hand, so it's certainly generally something that is best at the moment but feels vulnerable, like KJ or TT or JJ or even Q9. (AQ is kind of a punt tbh, that hand really does not want to jam but wants to try to stack worse value) And if this player is going to wildly underbluff here, which is common in the main, then folding is fine. It's close, as I'd probably call off KJ/fold KT.

Hand 2: Probably fine as played, could level myself into folding with the bad end of the straight when we have plenty of Qx in our range since that sizing is never a bluff. It is plausible a good pro could try to thin value something worse than a straight there, especially if he thought you were a station, but it seems unlikely.

Hand 3: Jam is bad there. If I was confident I was rarely getting 3-bet I can justify calling in this spot, but folding isn't outrageous as vs. a single UTG open we should be folding some percentage of the time. Never, ever betting at all post-flop multiway unless we hit a 7.

Hand 1: I think I would probably call vs the villain described. There are worst two pairs he can have or he might just have a piece of it with a flush draw/straight draw.

Hand 2: It's a bit close with such a small sizing. But betting into so many players, a flush is definitely possible.

Hand 3: Flatting is the play here. Playing 77 multiway in position is what you want. If you were a bit shorter, then maybe we can shove.

We're really banking on JT being in villain's range a lot and/or our opponent being willing to stack off with a random draw, which is always a dicey proposition. T8s and J8s may never be in villain's SB call range, T8s probably x/r flop if it's there.

I get that villain might be tilted, but it's a long way from being tilted to punting off 50+ BB.