I am in the hijack with pair of 66's and get to see a cheap flop. I've been running good and have a better than average stack a couple of hours into a $160 buy in NLHE tournament. So I flop a set on a board with low cards and two spades. I bet strongly. Villain on button shoves. He hasn't been out of line. He isn't bluffing. I don't put him on a higher set. No, the two spades convince me that he is on the flush draw. I don't think long at all. I have a set and call all in as the 2 to 1 favorite. He makes his flush on the river and there goes most of my stack and my tournament chances with it. I lasted another half hour and was gone.

Now the question is, should ICM considerations (wasn't close to the 10% money bubble) have come in to play in my decision? Knowing that 1 out of 3 times I lose should I have just mucked and looked for another hill to die on? I wasn't that heavily invested in the pot. Or in these fast (20 min levels) brutal tournaments am I pretty much obligated to call off as the 2 to 1 favorite? I've been in a long downswing at my local casino. I am thinking now that I should have folded but tough to do that with a set. If it was a monochrome board I would have folded.

Thoughts?

You're asking if you should have folded a monster hand as a substantial favorite because you took a bad beat?

Don't think there is anything more to say here. Suggest the thread is moved to BBV so we can all commerserate.

You sure won't ever get out of a losing streak if you fold hands that are a 75% favorite* because you're afraid of losing. If you aren't willing to gamble on that, poker might not be for you.

(* - yes, this scenario is closer to that, because 30% of the time he makes a flush you still win with a full house.)

Always get it all in when you can double up with what is likely the best hand.

If you saw your opponents cards you would have to call instantly.

If you don't play your strong hands this way you will never accumulate chips and go deep in tournaments.

In tournaments it also matters if I can buy back in again. Often I make calls with draws where I am getting the right odds or almost the right odds because if I don't double up and win I can buy back in with a starting stack.

No, 66.5% favorite; 2 of 3 times. Yes, I have never folded before in this situation. However, ICM says that the chips you lose are worth far more than the chips you stand to gain. I think stack size of opponent has to figure in. He had at 75% of my stack size. 50% or less I would certainly call without hesitation.

So it's a matter of ICM and taking the high or low variance line.

Most of the comments concur with the action I took. I agree that, independent of ICM, that's very standard to call. But, but ... ICM suggests ... maybe ... otherwise?

No, it isn't, and I just explained to you the math on that.

You're not even close to the money, which is where you should start thinking about ICM considerations. And even then, there are virtually no scenarios where you should fold a set, because you're so often a massive favorite. Of course, we can't really say what the scenario here is, because you include so few details of the actual hand. But sets are 75% favorites against flush draws, 99% or so against top pairs, and 90% against overpairs. You should not ever be folding hands with such ridiculously strong equity in a tournament, even when ICM effects are at their heaviest. If you're trying to use ICM as a reason to fold a set vs. a flush draw far away from the money, then you don't really understand ICM.

You can do calculations to figure out how ICM affects your decision-making in spots where it has a significant impact. But by and large, ICM affects your decision-making in spots where you don't want to call off your stack in a close scenario where you can make money by folding and letting other people bust. Your hand posted here does not fit any of these criteria.

Starting stack was 10K. Blinds were 1K 2K at the time. Would you really re-buy and show up with a 5 BB stack? Plenty of people were doing that. I thought they were crazy.

No I wouldn't... But it has nothing to do with this hand. I was referring to situations where you are calling with a draw in spots that you can effectively rebuy.

But typically in situations like this its early enough that buying back in is worth it. And knowing I can buy back in makes taking a bad beat easier to get past.

The thing is that when you are in basically a turbo tournament (starting with just 10,000 chips) you have to take chances a lot more than well structured tournaments so you can build up your stack.

Another thing to think about is that if you repeatedly do the right thing here (calling) then you will be basically doubling up 2 out of every 3 times. Instead of trying to alter your play as a result of this bad beat just understand you did the right thing and that it will benefit you in the future.

Again, it's more like 3 out of 4 times. A flush draw comes in about 35% of the time, but a set turns into a full house about 30% of the time-- which means 30% of that 35%, or 10.5% of the time, that flush is no good.

And that's assuming villain has a flush draw, which is one of the better spots he could be in-- given how seemingly short and fast this tournament plays (absent information like stack depths in the current hand or any of the preflop action whatsoever), a worse made hand, which we are in even better shape against, is possible.

Yeah, basically no conceivable way to fold a set in a tourney like this barring a 4 to a straight or 4 to a flush board or bananas action on a pretty wet board like 3 to flush and straight.

Blinds take an increasing toll. If you double up, blinds matter less. I don't think ICM takes that into account. Supports you shoving with the set, in addition to the equity, the primary reason as mentioned.

OK: Sets are SO easy to play OTF if our opponent wants to put a lot of money in the pot: We happily get it ALL in. We don't care if its bottom set, we don't care if the board has possible straights (because even if opponent was lucky so far we will have reasonable outs for a boat. And he could have two pair. Or even a lower set (if we don't have the bottom one). Or TPTK. Or a draw. Most of the time we will be a big favourite. Or even crush villain.

ICM doesn't dictate you should fold as a big favourite (and 2 to 1 IS a big favourite). It's implications far from the money are u should normally avoid big spots u think are just slightly +EV. Because if so the gain of a double up (or nearly a double up) does not on average compensate for those times you're bust or left with such a small stack that you're almost dead anyway.

Maybe you should take some time off from poker, working on your mental state in relation to the game right now. Your downswing probably affects your game, leading you to reason about game situations in very improductive ways.

Put in this in an odds calculator. If villain has high suited cards you are that 75% vs 25% ahead. If it's ace-low, then 73 vs 27. If we are really generous and give also a gutshot, we are at 60 vs 40. I think you very confidently are better than 70 vs 30. So snap call.