Day 2 of a multi flight tournament, $1100 buyin. We are in the money with 60 players remaining but still more than half way for the big money payouts. We just shoved to an open and are sitting with 20bb. I open with TT to 2bb. BTN raises me 3x. He has 50bb+. Folds to me. I have played cash with this player. He is solid euro player. I don’t think he is 3-betting me light here. If I put him on AQ+ and TT+, I only have about 35% equity. If 8 had 25bb I am comfortable calling and if I had 15bb I am comfortable shoving. With 18 bb behind, I am unsure. Is this always a shove?
HJ/BT and 20BB I probably just get it in. Very good spot for him to 3-bet light and tens are a really strong hand, you have a solid edge against AK/AQ, which he's probably 3-bet/calling-- he might be 3-bet/calling 88/99 too. Just find it hard to put someone on having JJ+ for such a major part of their range especially at this stack depth.
If you fold TT here, what are you getting it in with?
Also, are you saying V here isn't light against you specifically or that he isn't light here vs anyone? I struggle to see that V is a "solid" player if his 3! range is as tight as you list in the button unless y'all have tons of history.
I'm considering calling to stall a bit but eventually I'm all in here.
^If I was UTG then it's a fold as you don't expect him to betting lighter?
I think if I'm UTG it's less likely he's bluffing, but I'm still not sure I can get away from TT with 20BB. At least not vs. this kind of opponent-- I'm with Beachman in that I don't think "solid Euro" and "not 3-betting light here" are compatible.
In this situation, I'm folding to old guy nits whose 3-bet range is exclusively QQ+ with no bluffs, but I'm not folding to a good player.
From LJ, I don't think there's an unfalsifiable answer and my guess is anything except shoving is exploitable. But there are definitely arguments for folding and probably calling as well.
Even if you're perceived to be really tight then it's gonna be tough to not justify shipping a lot if not always.
You'll see as wide as A9s, ATs, AJo, AQo, KQo but people may tend to be way too tight.
I do know from past conversations that regs will have some AJo, AQo, KQo at least. I'd personally have some ATs, A9s, K9s, JTs, T9s as well. I don't expect people who are really tight openers here to make many mistakes vs 3bs.
I think it's a good assumption that you'll see a ton of AK, some AQ as well, sometimes even 99 and 88. You probably still have 40%ish equity when called so it becomes a decently attractive proposition to ship it risking 18 to win 10.5 immediately or 22.5 if called. Some rough estimation and I think the winrate band is probably something like -20bb/100 to +50bb/100 and I don't think we can do much better than quantifying those bounds. I think I'm pretty convinced that the upside is higher than the downside and personally I like ship but folding might be reasonable too and I think calling is justifiable as well but would be my third option in practice with this information set.
You'd be getting a fold from me a good 30% of the time, and you'd win a nice chunk of EV vs my personal 3b strategy.
The easiet way I can see a good Euro player having a tight 3-bet range against you is if you give the impression that you're a tight player yourself. If you have, then ripping TT does become a little dicey as villain may have a more linear 3-bet range. If we're doing anything other than shoving in this spot, it's a significant exploit as this should normally be a rip. (although I guess at equillibrium TT may do some calling)
Well, what I just don't see him 3 betting me light but vs 20bb. But I may have to give him more credit. I did end up shoving and lost the flip to AKs
You had the best hand to have in a flip, it's fine. Just gotta win those to win tournaments.
If the player is a good player they're going to have some % of bluffs in their range there. And they might 3-bet/call 99/88.
Re-reading your OP, I'd probably be more comfortable jamming with 25BB because I'm more confident in having fold equity, which increases the likelihood he's bluffing.
Somehow we all know what is going to happen. Even you end up winning by toss, still you know that feeling like your old friend.
We all know that we tend to go for uncertain exitement in that split second.
End of the day, we all know our pillow is going to listen everything.
