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EV of only jamming vs playing poker EV of only jamming vs playing poker

04-21-2024 , 10:12 PM
How much EV do you give up in a tournament from only jamming all-in or folding preflop? I know this may seem like a crazy notion, but honestly, I see people playing way too many hands and it makes me wanna just jam or fold preflop with all this action taking place. I think it could really simplify the game without giving up much of an edge. I honestly think you probably could even have an edge with a strategy like this given how badly tournament players play.
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04-21-2024 , 10:54 PM
If you are deep against decent/good competition playing some postflop is good. If competition is really bad jamming from start with good hands may be an option.
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04-21-2024 , 11:05 PM
There was a book written about this but I forget who wrote it. Could have been Sklansky.

It was specifically for people who had never played poker before. So they wouldn't have to apply any strategy post flop. And the book was about only jamming AA. But you could also argue that jamming KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ would work too. For people who don't know how to play poker.

If you are terrible then absolutely this could be a solution. I don't think you will win much because you will only be called by monsters until your stack is down to under like 15 blinds.

The problem with this strategy when you have a lot of blinds is that you stand to win very little when everyone folds and will lose a ton if somebody wakes up with a monster. The good players at the table will immediately look at what your range could be based on how often you are jamming preflop. Especially how often you are 3 bet jamming. Once they have it more or less figured out they will know if calling with AK or JJ/TT makes sense and the best you will do is have to get lucky.

I think the biggest issue for me about doing this is that you lose the opportunity to win big pots by bluffing. The more people balance their strong hands with bluffs based on bet sizing the more they will win by being the aggressor.

The other thing is, if you are playing in tournaments where the fields are bad at poker then if you are good at poker you should be crushing it overall. Yes you will be knocked out when people make horrible blunders and get lucky but most of the time you will increase your stack significantly. When I was playing in a tournament at Foxwoods about 10 years ago, two players across the table started talking about the WSOP Senior event. One guy said "I'm not going back to play at the WSOP Senior Event because the players are so bad and I keep getting knocked out by their blunders." The other guy said basically the same thing. I then said "I wish I was 60 so I could go play in them" and they both looked at me like I was an idiot. One guy said "you only have to be 50 to play in it" and they both got a good laugh at that. Since then I have played in the WSOP Senior and Super Senior Event every year. I cash about 30% of the time and I have gone deep twice (34th out of ~6,100 and 27th in a Super Senior out of about 3,000). And yes I was knocked out the first two WSOP Senior Events by people who made horrible blunders but ironically both times we were all in preflop (the 1st time I raised UTG with QQ and a guy UTG+1 shoved and I called and he had 99, the 2nd time it went limp limp and I looked down at K8s and I jammed with about 25 blinds, the BB tanked with AJs and folded, the original limper folded, and then the 2nd limper said "I know I'm behind but I have to call" and he had Q9s and 16 blinds. LOL).

Here is another example about why what you are saying won't work. I was playing at River's casino in Schenectady NY (near Albany) and I opened UTG early in the tourney with KK. Folds to the BB who shoves for like 125 blinds. I tank and open fold my KK. He shows me his AA and shrugs. I ask him why he shoved and he said "I didn't want to play them out of position". So, instead of winning a fairly large pot 80 % of the time by 3 betting to like 12 bb's which I would likely just call HU in position and keep calling his large bets unless an A showed up and he bet, he won just 3 bb's.
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04-23-2024 , 12:40 PM
I vaguely remember something about this as well, but I think it has something to do with Phil Helmuth training some absolute beginner girl. I think the plan was for her to go all in with 77+ and AK, and fold everything else. This was a long time ago and I think that even at midstakes such a plan would get you harvested today.

However, it does bring up an interesting point (which I first heard discussed by the evil hellhound Annie Duke,) about creating different levels of variance based on your judgement of the the skill level of your opponents.

Her point was this: against weaker players against whom you feel you have a skill advantage you want to create low variance opportunities for yourself, avoiding flips and all-in situations and relying on your superior skills to build your stack and grind them down. But if you are in a situation where you feel you are at a skill disadvantage, (and if you have ever played $100+ online or $1k live you have probably felt that way,) then the answer is to create high variance situations for your opponents, thus reducing their skill advantage by introducing a larger element of chance.
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04-26-2024 , 10:26 PM
Kill Phil.
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04-27-2024 , 12:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2pairsof2s
I vaguely remember something about this as well, but I think it has something to do with Phil Helmuth training some absolute beginner girl. I think the plan was for her to go all in with 77+ and AK, and fold everything else. This was a long time ago and I think that even at midstakes such a plan would get you harvested today.

However, it does bring up an interesting point (which I first heard discussed by the evil hellhound Annie Duke,) about creating different levels of variance based on your judgement of the the skill level of your opponents.

Her point was this: against weaker players against whom you feel you have a skill advantage you want to create low variance opportunities for yourself, avoiding flips and all-in situations and relying on your superior skills to build your stack and grind them down. But if you are in a situation where you feel you are at a skill disadvantage, (and if you have ever played $100+ online or $1k live you have probably felt that way,) then the answer is to create high variance situations for your opponents, thus reducing their skill advantage by introducing a larger element of chance.
It was Sklansky, who was approached by a businessman who wanted to put his daughter in the ME.

BTW, saw the aforementioned playing a $200 nightly at Southpoint this week....
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04-27-2024 , 12:48 PM
The problem I face is I'll raise 2x from EP with a medium strength hand like KQo at 15ish-20ish BBs and then the players in front of me move in with garbage and I end up folding. Or another scenario, same situation except 40BBs. I get a bunch of callers and flop will come something like K87. I bet small and people call. Turn is a 6. SB donk leads big, BB Comes over the top. I'll end up folding and they'll flip over stuff like J5o and A8o.

For multiway pots, in theory, ranges should be significantly tighter, but when the other players deviate, it shifts the equilibrium to something weird. What ends up happening is I'm in a spot where I don't know whether to fold because the other player is representing something really strong or I should call because the other player doesn't recognize relative hand strength. If you always end up folding it seems like the edge ends up going to the tightest player postflop that doesn't recognize relative hand strength.

I probably also lose money open/folding. If I open KQo in EP and a player comes over the top, I usually fold it, but it seems to happen so much that I lose a large percentage of my stack. It makes me almost want to just jam or fold it.

I'm a profitable midstakes cash game player so adjusting to tournaments is a different element. I'm probably unintentionally too nitty in certain post flop spots and it costs me, but the player pool in tournaments just seems like it is full of bad players. Perhaps the best approach is to simplify jam/fold at like 25BBs and shallower and then make adjustments from there. I'd give up a lot of theoretical EV, but prevent myself from making massive EV blunders in multiway pots.

I think a really good hand to illustrate my frustrations is the Alec Torelli fold against Daniel Negreanu, I feel like Alec Torelli in tournaments:

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04-27-2024 , 02:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGodson
The problem I face is I'll raise 2x from EP with a medium strength hand like KQo at 15ish-20ish BBs and then the players in front of me move in with garbage and I end up folding. Or another scenario, same situation except 40BBs. I get a bunch of callers and flop will come something like K87. I bet small and people call. Turn is a 6. SB donk leads big, BB Comes over the top. I'll end up folding and they'll flip over stuff like J5o and A8o.
Then don't fold?

I mean, sure, in theory it makes sense to in these spots, but if players in your games are really that wild and getting it in that wide, just get it in with them.
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04-27-2024 , 07:54 PM
would be a pretty tall order to show that theres reasonable assumptions where shipping 100bb and letting people reduce their decisions to only two options is higher EV (cEV and $EV) than giving yourself at least
four opportunites to exploit pre and post

but hey if youre seeing people just calling it off with silly things then maybe sometimes lol?
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05-03-2024 , 07:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGodson
The problem I face is I'll raise 2x from EP with a medium strength hand like KQo at 15ish-20ish BBs and then the players in front of me move in with garbage and I end up folding. Or another scenario, same situation except 40BBs. I get a bunch of callers and flop will come something like K87. I bet small and people call. Turn is a 6. SB donk leads big, BB Comes over the top. I'll end up folding and they'll flip over stuff like J5o and A8o.
Then stop folding in such situations. If people play very loose and wild, the solution is to not move all-in preflop for way to many blinds. The solution is to get better at postflop and maybe adjust your preflop ranges somewhat. If a min-raise from UTG usually get 4 callers, then raise bigger with strong hands and fold marginal hands like J9s or QJo.
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05-11-2024 , 09:35 PM
Does anyone know of a tool out there where I can plug in calling ranges for each position at the table with different stack sizes where it can calculate my EV of shoving each hand?

Nash would have me shoving 55 from EP at 10BBs, but this is a mistake at a table full of aggro/calling stations.


I've made the adjustment of folding hands like KQo, KJo, and A3s from EP at 15ish to 20ish BBs and I think it has been a good thing. Instead of opening 2x with AA at 15ish BBs, I open jammed and got called by Q8o and 44. Versus good players, opening 2x or limping is optimal, but against these players open jamming is best, because they can't figure out how to fold.

What do you think of this heuristic for 15BBs and lower?
Any hand that is good enough to call a shove is good enough to 3-bet jam versus a raise or move all-in versus a limp.
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05-14-2024 , 04:09 AM
Congratulations you solved poker.
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05-14-2024 , 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGodson
...
What do you think of this heuristic for 15BBs and lower?
Any hand that is good enough to call a shove is good enough to 3-bet jam versus a raise or move all-in versus a limp.
I open jam pre-flop with < 15 bb's. I am a white OMC so it may convince people to fold marginal hands that they would call young guys with.

I 3-bet jam generally with < 25 bb's unless the opening is a min raise and its somebody who is very tight then I limit it to under 20 bb's.

The other thing to consider is when there are a number of limpers jamming with Ax hands in the BB. It blocks AA. But I do this only when I have seen the opening limper do this before. In theory you can jam with up to like 35 blinds.
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05-15-2024 , 01:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Rick
I open jam pre-flop with < 15 bb's. I am a white OMC so it may convince people to fold marginal hands that they would call young guys with.
Hmmm. If you are going to take this strategy based on your image, I assume you are opening lighter than GTO? Because if you are opening tighter, you want those marginal hands to call.

So maybe a better exploit for your image would be to min open at 15 bbs, as you will still get people to overfold to your OMC image, and then have a chance to bail when they come over the top (again based on your image, meaning they have assumed strength)?
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05-15-2024 , 02:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubblebust
Hmmm. If you are going to take this strategy based on your image, I assume you are opening lighter than GTO? Because if you are opening tighter, you want those marginal hands to call.

So maybe a better exploit for your image would be to min open at 15 bbs, as you will still get people to overfold to your OMC image, and then have a chance to bail when they come over the top (again based on your image, meaning they have assumed strength)?
I am jamming fairly wide <15 bb's.

At the WSOP Circuit Main Event in March (2nd buy in after AA got cracked all in preflop vs AKs) I must have jammed like 8 times with < 15 bb's before I got called jamming with Q7s HJ by AQo BTN by a young GTO/Solver type who tanked before he called. LOL. The previous jams were KQo UTG, KJs UTG+1, AKo UTG, AQo UTG, T8o BTN, 43s CO, T7s BTN, KQs UTG). I managed to survive the Q7s hand when the river was a 7. So I cashed.

At the Borgota in one of their seasonal series I had 14 bb's and jammed with 32o on the BTN and got called by AK in the BB. 2 on the river and I survived.

At the Venetian 2 day tournament I jammed with A4s in HJ with 14 bb's and QQ called on BTN and I managed to flop an A. Finished 3rd on Day 2.

And yes there are a number of times I get called by better hands and lose. So be it. Overall though I prefer it to min raising and getting called by somebody in position and then having to bluff on the flop if I have any draws or pairs or the board favors my range. I do this with > 15 bb's and its not easy (or particularly profitable). If I am called only by a blind then it is better. But with < 15 blinds a lot of times hands that would call a min raise will fold and it helps me avoid getting knocked out. There have been times when a guy will show me AQo or TT/99 and I will always say "good fold".
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05-16-2024 , 01:28 AM
A lot of those jams are pretty loose, but I suppose if people are folding AQ, TT, and 99 then you are making some pretty good exploits. My field is the opposite of that. I've actually started to simplify the game and create preflop charts in a way that I think is good. At 5BBs no calling, only jamming or folding. At 10BBs mostly jamming, but some calling from BB and also SB if the raise is from EP. At 15BBs I 2x in EP with all of my opening range, but once I reach HJ and beyond I open with a limp with a polarized range or shove all-in with strong, but vulnerable hands. No 2xing at all. I believe this should be a good balanced strategy. If the players are aggro stations then I can adjust to jamming with good hands and folding the marginal ones.

So from EP at 15BBs I could jam 88+, ATs+, AJo+ and maybe KQs if I'm feeling loosey goosey and eating a sandwich and fold everything else. At a table of good players I could open 2x with hands like QJs or JTs, but versus crazy players it just goes straight in the muck. Am I adjusting incorrectly here?

I think a big difference between cash games and tournaments that I've observed is that you have to respect the open limps in tournaments more, because people trap quite a bit more in tournaments. The shallower the stack, the more I must respect the limp.

I haven't done the work for 20BB stacks and beyond yet, but I feel intuitively that at 30ishBBs with crazy aggro stations it is okay to start open/folding some hands without it damaging your stack too much.
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05-24-2024 , 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubblebust
Hmmm. If you are going to take this strategy based on your image, I assume you are opening lighter than GTO? Because if you are opening tighter, you want those marginal hands to call.

So maybe a better exploit for your image would be to min open at 15 bbs, as you will still get people to overfold to your OMC image, and then have a chance to bail when they come over the top (again based on your image, meaning they have assumed strength)?
Not really. A whole bulk of EV for your middle and bottom of your opening range comes from stealing the blind uncontested and are rooting for a fold.
Getting a call is just an unfortunate circumstances the hero need to deal with.
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05-28-2024 , 11:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtgalex
Not really. A whole bulk of EV for your middle and bottom of your opening range comes from stealing the blind uncontested and are rooting for a fold.
Getting a call is just an unfortunate circumstances the hero need to deal with.
You definitely want to have FE from an open jam. But what I am saying is that if people are over folding to Mr. Rick's OMC image, then Rick is losing EV if he is playing the standard GTO opening range, and losing a lot if his range is tighter than GTO. Rick needs to account for his image which will further tighten the calling range against his open shoves. The proper adjustment would be to widen his opening range. Otherwise, what he is gaining in FE, he is more than losing on those occasions (worth a lot more BBs) where he does get called.
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