Second to last hand before bagging for Day 2. Blinds: 1.5k/3k/3k BB ante. I have 98K. Villain, a 20-something TAG player (no other reads), has 74K.
I'm in the BB with QH JD. Hi-jack raises to 8K. Villain calls in the cutoff for 8K, I complete from the BB for 5K.

Flop: Qc 8H 3S (Pot 28.5K, Hero 93K, Villain 66K)

I check, original raiser checks, villain bets 12K. I call, original raiser folds.

Turn: KD (Pot 52.5K, Hero 81K, Villain 54K)

I check, villain stuffs it for 54K.

AA KK JJ 1010 99 88 AK AQ seem like unlikely hands with original raiser in the hi-jack and I have a blockers to QQ JJ KJ and straight draws.
If my logic is somewhat sound, in my mind, that puts the villain with K10 K9, maybe KJ or bluffing small pairs. And, if he had a set or a strong hand, wouldn't think
he would stuff it, would try for more value on the turn.

Do you consider calling here, betting small on the turned King, or just fold and find a better spot in Day 2?

I'm not sure what he'd be bluffing with. There aren't any flush draws, and you describe him as TAG.

It's a weird card for him to ship it on, sure. But I don't see many realistic bluffs-- just one of the three combos of JTs with a backdoor flush draw on the flop. Maybe you're right and he is bluffing; it's just the only bluff that would make sense to me here. Which seems like a pretty narrow part of his range, I'd think.

Why whould he shove for value on this dry board with a set or KQ? I think this is JT a lot of the times or a bluff with a low pocket pair trying to make you fold a Q.

Low pairs make sense as a bluff; I've definitely seen this line / thinking before.

The shove just doesn't make much sense with any hand, which is why it's so confusing.

This shove makes sense with almost every hand because of the size of the pot and the fact that if Villain bets smaller and loses he goes into Day 2 with a very short stack.

Any value bet of more than half the pot would be over 50% effective stack size which would just be flat out dumb on the turn. If he has KQ/88 it might make sense to bet about 25% pot to keep you in.

Because there are no flush draws and we block JT it is unlikely that this is a draw. Though it could be T9s/JT/J9s.

Villain could have hands like KJs/KTs but given he is TAG it is unlikely he has any other hands that beat us (AK/AQ/AA/KK/QQ all 3-bet pre flop) other than KQ/88 and those hands might not shove here

The only question I would have is whether or not Villain over bluffs or under bluffs. But we have no reads.

The other thing to consider is that we are one hand away from Day 2. Villain would have 18 blinds if he checks back and loses the hand at the current level and about 14 blinds if the levels change soon. If it were me I would just as soon miss day 2 by trying to bluff here. So its an overbluff spot IMO.

The turn is a perfect spot for villain to try to bluff you off of Qx which is basically your only Flop calls (I doubt you call with any 8x or 3x but I guess its possible). You would never call with a gutter this close to day 2, and there were no flush draws

The final factor is that if you call and lose you would have like 8 blinds on day 2 which would suck and villain knows that would suck for you. So unless I talk myself out of it due to fear I would call here.

I totally agree. The jam just doesn't make sense to me with a made hand unless he's got like king rag and is just going to go with it. With a set or 2 pair, I would think he would try and milk more value out of me unless he feels like the king hit my hand and I'm likely to call the shove. I'm crippled if I call and I'm wrong and he knows it.

So did you end up calling?

Very interesting hand and thoughts as well. I would just like to add this: Since OP thinks villain is a TAG player JTs or T9s makes makes most sense pre, doesn't it? TAG should normally be expected to fold JTo in CO, right?

Suited hand of any of the three colours that hits the flop also makes more sense flop IMHO. Would a TAG player really bet into two players with nothing more than a gutshot? Add a backdoor flush draw and his options are a lot better (+ a J or T on turn, should one of you call.

JT, J9, T9 and Ax all possible bluffs.

If he's going to go broke with air he'll use this line very often. Which doesn't necessarily mean he'll go broke with air often; it just means that when he decides to YOLO he'll use this line a lot

Probably higher frequency to call Q2, Q4 but I think at least any Qx you need to call at least sometimes.

QJ I think is a high frequency fold under the assumption that he doesn't have much Qx and likely no QJ-. So QJ like most/all Qx likely beats no value but has sort of nut low blockers vs his bluffs.

He can definitely have AA btw. KK almost never bc of pre & the K peeling OTT

also would not be surprised at all to see 8x or 22, 44 etc show up here

Nice thread!

I had kinda simular toughtprocess as Mr Rick. EggsMcBluffin reply made me aware that Ax is also possible bluffs, and his kind of reasoning is the kind of level I want to get my thinking on. I find myself playing to tight on big live events deep. Obviously because this is shot-taking over my BR.