Quote:
Originally Posted by ChetWisner
NO! You have to bet out there because the Check will be seen as weakness.
this is bad logic. You cannot bet just to look strong. You have to bet for a specific ev reason. Especially in a mw, raised pot. You can raise because 1) you get value from weaker hands or 2) you get value form people folding to your bluff. In this spot, we are either WA/WB.
If they are drawing they have probably ~20% once the turn comes. They need a
, a 6, a 4, or 2 outs to a set/trips, or 5 outs to 2 pair. If they have 45
, worst case vs a drawing hand, they have 17 outs (if I counted right) 1 time so they have ~34%.
If they are ahead they have 2 pair, a set, or an overpair. Overpairs that may be likely are pretty much TT or Kx with a weak kicker. Set's and 2pair are not folding, TT might, and Kx, probably not because they would not have called a flop if they did not plan to stack a K when it comes. So a bluff doesn't work too well if you are beat.
So, back to my main point, if you are betting, you are betting to get value from weaker hands (mainly draws) and need to just shove. You are not betting to "look strong". As Furo said, a shove on the turn could be right to charge draws, or a fold.