[MID] Early hand at final table. Do we fire a third barrel? - MTT Poker Strategy

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[MID] Early hand at final table. Do we fire a third barrel?

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01-02-2024 , 12:42 PM

InYourDome

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 239

I've been ten years away from poker so I'm a bit rusty (and no doubt behind the times!). Second hand of the final table. No reads on villain. Online $50 (bounty). We are the short stack.

Would appreciate thoughts on all streets, especially on whether we should barrel the river.

45,000/90,000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players

BTN: 41.04 BB
SB: 41.12 BB
BB: 35.87 BB
UTG: 42.31 BB
UTG+1: 28.82 BB
MP: 52.3 BB
MP+1: 27.39 BB
Hero (CO): 22.7 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 7

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (5.3 BB, 2 players) T

BB checks, Hero bets 3.34 BB, BB calls 3.34 BB

Turn: (11.98 BB, 2 players) Q

BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, BB calls 6 BB

River: (23.98 BB, 2 players) 4

BB checks

Hero? (We have about 11BB left)

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01-02-2024 , 01:09 PM

ledn

MTTLivePro

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,108

Paired flops like smaller bets usually, but overall I dont see how this isn't a jam.

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01-02-2024 , 01:11 PM

Bubblebust

adept

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 830

With no info on V, I think this is a give up in theory. Triple barrelling missed flush draws is generally a bad idea since you heavily block the hands you are targetting with a bluff -- other flush draws that could call the flop and turn, but fold river. In addition, the Q let many of V's straight draws get there or make top pair. You might get a hand like J9 to lay it down (and he still might have a missed flush draw), but V will not have a big range he's willing to fold. Also, the paired board makes it even less likely he's calling two streets on a draw, when he can get there and still lose.

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01-02-2024 , 01:21 PM

InYourDome

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 239

Quote:

Originally Posted by ledn

Paired flops like smaller bets usually, but overall I dont see how this isn't a jam.

Yeah I definitely went too large on my flop bet. Honestly have no idea why I did that. Dumb mistake.

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Originally Posted by Bubblebust

Thank you - this is really good analysis.

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01-02-2024 , 06:52 PM

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,688

In theory I guess a jam could fold out a lot of medium strength hands that continued with additional equity to improve. In practice, I don't know that he isn't just trapping with Tx here (your large flop bet probably clears out a lot of the lighter floats). Will he fold QJ or KQ to a shove? That's probably the decision point where I jam if it's a yes and check if it's a no.

Also, I probably just fold preflop given the stack sizes behind me. I want some blockers and a higher likelihood of flopping a strong top pair when I raise into covering stacks at the final table. If I had everyone behind me covered I would raise.

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01-03-2024 , 11:52 AM

ralphykid67

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 439

Fold pre. We don’t have the stack depth to navigate and realize equity with this hand class. We should be looking to play high card broadway type hands which can flop top pair good kicker.

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01-03-2024 , 08:53 PM

Jkpoker10

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,983

I think I like firing river as we have no showdown but I feel we are called a ton if they call 2 streets. I might honestly just give up river bc I don’t see a lot of folds from villian. As played I like it.

I think I might size down on flop and bet bigger than pot on turn here bc I never see betting 3bb when we have 10-x. I feel we can cbet 1-1.5bb and effectively get same response as an oberbet to pot but idk gto might like your sizing?

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01-03-2024 , 09:13 PM

Gordie

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 255

If you are going to play 76 suited I bet bigger pre, 3 or 4 BB
I check behind on turn
Shove on river

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01-04-2024 , 12:35 AM

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,688

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gordie

If you are going to play 76 suited I bet bigger pre, 3 or 4 BB

You really shouldn't be raising that big preflop with any of your hands at this point (or ever, but especially not off 22BB at a final table), which is part of the reason 76s is a fold.

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Originally Posted by Gordie

I check behind on turn
Shove on river

What are you trying to represent?

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01-04-2024 , 01:36 AM

#10

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,688

Quote:

Originally Posted by ralphykid67

Fold pre. We don’t have the stack depth to navigate and realize equity with this hand class. We should be looking to play high card broadway type hands which can flop top pair good kicker.

Just wanted to add that this is particularly true at a final table. We prefer to take down pots without showdown when possible, and here we don't have any blockers to strong hands and are very susceptible to ICM pressure from 3-bets.

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01-04-2024 , 07:14 AM

#11

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,688

I also overlooked that it's a bounty - more reason to fold preflop, since as the short stack you're going to get more action than you would otherwise (which you don't want in this situation), and more reason to give up on the river, since your opponents have more incentive to call your all-ins.

Of course, this depends on the type of bounty tournament it is and how big the prize is for busting you (especially, at this point, compared to the payouts).

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Originally Posted by Bubblebust

Should mention it's a backdoor flush draw, which changes the calculus as to what we block, especially on a flop like this.

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